ATL: Remnants of INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Cat5James]

At this point I'd personally give 95L a nearly 0% of development over both 2 days and 5 days. It's currently plagued by some wind shear, and while shear levels are more favorable to the west, there's also dry air and Saharan dust there. Shear trends over the Caribbean and SW North Atlantic don't look very favorable either. 95L would have maybe already fallen apart if not for the monsoon trough it's attached to.

I'd let it get past 40W and see what happens before counting 95L out.

[JRD]

L95 has gotten better organized and has deepened a little. I honestly don't know what to say about it, since it's being unpredictable.

[Stormybajan]

L95 has gotten better organized and has deepened a little. I honestly don't know what to say about it, since it's being unpredictable.

I think I've learnt overs the years watching early season tropical waves is that they always do this...ebb and flow ..convection can increase then suddenly decrease and go poof then be back again. Once theres a area of rotation still intact theres still a chance with this AND its heading to warmer waters right now as others have said I say watch what it does between 40-45W that will tell us a lot

[Cat5James]

New burst of convection in the last 15-30 minutes

[tolakram]

SLIDER
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=18184&y=8224&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Nimbus]

Moisture seems to be rolling west with 95L so far early season circulations usually dry out till they almost reach the islands.

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2021062718, , BEST, 0, 108N, 345W, 25, 1009, LO

[cheezyWXguy]

I have to say, I’m pretty impressed with this system. Pretty well defined circulation and decently deep convection over the center. Is it only the lack of confidence that it will survive that’s keeping this from being classified?

[AlphaToOmega]

I have to say, I’m pretty impressed with this system. Pretty well defined circulation and decently deep convection over the center. Is it only the lack of confidence that it will survive that’s keeping this from being classified?

Systems can be re-classified as tropical cyclones in post-season analysis. The last time that happened was 2013.

[Hammy]

I have to say, I’m pretty impressed with this system. Pretty well defined circulation and decently deep convection over the center. Is it only the lack of confidence that it will survive that’s keeping this from being classified?

The mid-level circulation (where the convection is) is displaced by about two degrees from the low level center, which is still fairly diffuse.

[toad strangler]

I have to say, I’m pretty impressed with this system. Pretty well defined circulation and decently deep convection over the center. Is it only the lack of confidence that it will survive that’s keeping this from being classified?

Nah, sub tropical weak sauce has been classified multiple times in the recent past even though longevity could be expected in hours rather than days. The NHC isn't factoring that in I'm pretty confident.

[aspen]

Looks pretty decent right now. Maybe worthy of getting bumped up to a medium chance at 8pm if its current presentation persists.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It still looks like a sharp trough axis to me. I dont see any westerly low level flow right now, but it is holding its own through the cooler water

[Category5Kaiju]

Apparently the convective burst is occurring during dirunal minimum, so one would have to wonder what diurnal maximum would mean for 95L

[Stormybajan]

Pretty decent convective burst right now...and its heading for warmer waters over the next day or so. IMO chances are increasing for atleast a short lived TD out of this in the next 5 days

[AlphaToOmega]

The chances will probably be upgraded to something like 30% within 2 days and 50% within 5 days.

[Aric Dunn]

This is the type of sustained convection it has needed. last night was impressive but it kept collapsing and refiring too quickly.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A lot of upper divergence but lacking in lower convergence. Gonna be tough to continue generating thunderstorms throughout the night.

[ScottNAtlanta]

These little systems can wrap before you know it. It looks a whole lot better than it did earlier today

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
...

2. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Some slow development is possible
through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward
to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser
Antilles late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brown