BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
...ENRIQUE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY SUNDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 105.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico
A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico later today.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 105.3 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the
northwest with a gradual slowdown in forward motion is expected over
the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique
is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional intensification is expected today, and
Enrique is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane by Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.09 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web
at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5. ... y_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern
portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread
westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday.
RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in
southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of
southwestern Mexico.
SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
Enrique continues to exhibit a well organized structure on satellite
imagery. First-light visible shows the formation of a ring of
overshooting tops along Enrique's north and west sides, a sign that
an eyewall is organizing. Indeed, a recent 1207 UTC SSMIS microwave
pass showed this formative eyewall, though some dry air also appears
to be wrapping around the hurricane along its eastern flank.
Satellite intensity estimates this morning include subjective Dvorak
estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB, T4.5/75 kt from SAB, and an
objective estimate of T4.3/72 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial
intensity is increased to 75 kt for this advisory, favoring the
higher intensity estimates based on the improvement in satellite
structure since 1200 UTC.
Satellite imagery suggests that the estimated motion is beginning to
bend a bit rightward at 300/07 kt. As the mid-level ridge to the
north of the storm weakens over the next day or so, Enrique should
slow down and turn a bit more to the northwest. The large region of
monsoonal southwesterly flow south and east of the hurricane may
also be influencing this rightward bend in the track in the short
term. The new forecast track has shifted again to the right,
especially over the first 48 hours, following the track guidance
consensus and close to the most recent ECMWF ensemble mean. The
small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast with Enrique should keep
the highest winds offshore, but any additional eastward track
adjustments could require hurricane watches for portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico later today.
Conditions remains favorable for Enrique to intensify further in the
short term, and the current rapid intensification cycle is expected
to continue the next 12 to 24 h with the hurricane peaking at 95 kt.
Thereafter, an increase in easterly shear could help import dry
down-sloping flow off the higher Mexican terrain into Enrique's
core. In addition, the depth of warm sea-surface temperatures along
Enrique's track becomes increasingly shallow and any further
slowdown in the forward motion would result in cool ocean upwelling.
Thus, Enrique is expected to begin weakening after 24 h, and this
steady weakening should continue through the end of the forecast
period and sea-surface temperatures decrease along the forecast
track.
Key Messages:
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 17.1N 105.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 17.5N 105.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 18.3N 106.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 19.4N 106.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 20.1N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 22.9N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
