
ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Wind Shear is between 10-15 Knots, that is why Sam is trying to smooth out the CDO . . .


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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Recent SW wobble, spectacular hurricane on satellite...
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
If it is heading WNW you could fool me, sure looks like W to me but I'm not expert by any definition.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
kevin wrote:Sam's eye has further contracted over the last few hours to roughly 6 miles (9 km) based on IR, which definitely fits the pinhole eye description. Contraction seems to have stopped now as Sam is further solidifying its structure and the eye is drying out again. I think that during re-analysis this will definitely be upped to 130 kt instead of 125 kt if NHC follows best track for now. All we can do is hope that it maintains this presentation until recon arrives around 20z.
https://i.imgur.com/CYfPXsC.jpg
Recon departs at 20z, they won’t arrive until 23z, which means there’ll be an unacceptable 25-hour gap between center fixes. So far it doesn’t seem that this morning’s flight was cancelled/postponed due to technical issues, as that probably would’ve been mentioned in the 5am discussion.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
hipshot wrote:
If it is heading WNW you could fool me, sure looks like W to me but I'm not expert by any definition.
I’ve been looking at that heading too. Definitely due west or even south of due west for a few hours.
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- ouragans
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Am I the only one a little unquiet for the Wbound jog? 

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Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
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This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
This is moving straight west. Not seeing any north component in its trajectory all morning.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Call me crazy, but if Sam manages to somehow make it to the Caribbean, there will be almost absolutely nothing to stop this from reaching a CAT 5, SSTs are 29-30°C, Wind Shear is low up to Hispaniola, OHC gets higher, & there is not much dry air to limit Sam (Even though it's currently limiting the EWRCs for some weird reason)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ouragans
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
9Z position by NHC: 13.8°N 49.7°W
12Z position by best track: 13.8N 50.0W
This is a very slow, straight 270, no doubt
12Z position by best track: 13.8N 50.0W
This is a very slow, straight 270, no doubt
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Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like an ULL to the NNW is pushing down on it.
CIMSS is showing it being there for some time.
Somehow it didn't get into the models. Wonder why?

CIMSS is showing it being there for some time.
Somehow it didn't get into the models. Wonder why?

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
ouragans wrote:9Z position by NHC: 13.8°N 49.7°W
12Z position by best track: 13.8N 50.0W
This is a very slow, straight 270, no doubt
Latest GFS has really slowed it down.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Seems like a little WSW move.
Wobble or is CIMSS steering for real?
Wobble or is CIMSS steering for real?
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Looks like an ULL to the NNW is pushing down on it.
CIMSS is showing it being there for some time.
Somehow it didn't get into the models. Wonder why?
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/LXZkX900/wg8dlm5.gif [/url]
What kind of effect do you think this might have on its track
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
An insane number of lightning strikes in Sam’s western eyewall over the last hour or so. It’s also starting to get that Stadium Effect look to its eye. No way this isn’t intensifying.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Fancy1001 wrote:GCANE wrote:Looks like an ULL to the NNW is pushing down on it.
CIMSS is showing it being there for some time.
Somehow it didn't get into the models. Wonder why?
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/LXZkX900/wg8dlm5.gif [/url]
What kind of effect do you think this might have on its track
I just checked GFS and it looks like the ULL is in now.
I think a couple factors are in play.
1) Strength of the ULL, if stronger than forecast, would push Sam more west.
2) Slow down of Sam's trajectory would upwell more water and weaken it, allowing it to move more west.
Need to watch this closely, could be in for some surprises.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Sams track is literally due west & slowing down, this is giving me Flashbacks on Dorian because of how similar the movement is right now . . . (Due west & slowing down)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Whats a good website that shows projected track overlayed with satellite?
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Fancy1001 wrote:GCANE wrote:Looks like an ULL to the NNW is pushing down on it.
CIMSS is showing it being there for some time.
Somehow it didn't get into the models. Wonder why?
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/LXZkX900/wg8dlm5.gif [/url]
What kind of effect do you think this might have on its track
Not much, these slowdowns prior to turns can cause erratic movements. Possibly some westward adjustments may bring Sam closer to Bermuda, but beyond that models seem set on OTS.
Last edited by Blown Away on Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:NDG wrote:The impressive lightning show along the western eyewall continues. Recon even reported grauple at 10k feet on last night's mission.
https://i.imgur.com/Set5RXs.gif
Do you have the link to this image?
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... aw_width=6
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