GCANE wrote:Very weak wind field on the WSW side of the CoC. Pretty far out.
Yeah, Grace's windfield is very asymmetric right now. Until that changes, no rapid intensification.
ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Yeah, Grace's windfield is very asymmetric right now. Until that changes, no rapid intensification.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:GCANE wrote:Very weak wind field on the WSW side of the CoC. Pretty far out.
Yeah, Grace's windfield is very asymmetric right now. Until that changes, no rapid intensification.
It’ll need more convection on the SW side to bump up the winds and translate them to the surface. This pause in intensification might mean no MH in the WCar, which is good for the Yucatán.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Structurally Grace has definitely improved with a much more intense inner core since coming off of Jamaica last night, but there is still some work to be done as others are noting. Waiting to see if we'll get a burst of convection to help symmetrize things.
That said, the newest AF VORTEX reports a closed, circular eyewall, 18 mile diameter.
That said, the newest AF VORTEX reports a closed, circular eyewall, 18 mile diameter.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Can't post the pic since I'm on mobile, but the PVS is much weaker than it was just a couple hours ago so looks like Grace is finally taking it out. A new burst of convection to help that SW side and it should be off to the races. Might take a bit for that to occur though so for now I'm going with a 90kt Cat 2 into the Yucatan. If it happens quicker it could become a major before it gets there but we'll see.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The differences in extrapolated pressure between the AF and NOAA planes are interesting. Seems to me like AF is extrapolating a lower central pressure (more accurate per dropsondes), but also a higher environmental pressure? Pretty odd.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Latest vortex indicates 16nm closed circular eye
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
saved loop. Spiral Banding seems to be improving. Remember the 'good old days' when sat pics only updated every 10 minutes, and that was considered quick?
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
tolakram wrote:saved loop. Spiral Banding seems to be improving. Remember the 'good old days' when sat pics only updated every 10 minutes, and that was considered quick?
https://imgur.com/SU5J6Xv
Kinda, my radar I like observing (News 9 Nextgen Live Radar) updates every 2-4 minutes! That is FAST for a radar station, since most take up to 15 minutes to update . . .
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TallyTracker
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I see a spot near the center that may be the eye starting peek through.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It appears that the communications has stopped with NOAA2 inside Grace . . .
NOAA3 Mission #12 into GRACE
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm
As of 13:24 UTC Aug 18, 2021:
Aircraft Position: 18.97°N 82.05°W
Bearing: 27° at 266 kt
Altitude: 3208 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 20 kt at 342°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1006.3 mb
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm
As of 13:24 UTC Aug 18, 2021:
Aircraft Position: 18.97°N 82.05°W
Bearing: 27° at 266 kt
Altitude: 3208 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 20 kt at 342°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1006.3 mb
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
tolakram wrote:saved loop. Spiral Banding seems to be improving. Remember the 'good old days' when sat pics only updated every 10 minutes, and that was considered quick?
https://imgur.com/SU5J6Xv
Despite all this talk of asymmetry/PVS shear, that's honestly a pretty healthy looking CDO.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Recon about to make another center pass
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
993.8 MB Extrapolated
Next to wait is the Dropsonde . . .
(I've just noticed that the Southern Quad is getting stronger since Last Night)
Next to wait is the Dropsonde . . .
(I've just noticed that the Southern Quad is getting stronger since Last Night)
Last edited by Iceresistance on Wed Aug 18, 2021 9:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
994 looks clean, surface winds 15 kts
140430 1923N 08203W 8425 01462 9938 +228 +140 102015 016 015 001 00
140430 1923N 08203W 8425 01462 9938 +228 +140 102015 016 015 001 00
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
65 kt SFMR in the NW quadrant, although FL winds are lower so it’s probably suspect.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:65 kt SFMR in the NW quadrant, although FL winds are lower so it’s probably suspect.
True, but 'Est. Sfc. Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Using Est. Red. Factor' is also 60 kt so I think it might be possible, at least TropicalAtlantic doesn't denote it as suspect. But it's probably best in these cases to be relatively conservative with estimates and go with 60 kt until SFMR, FL winds and Est. Sfc. Winds are all representative for 65 kt or higher.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
We might have a hurricane on our hands! New measurements just came in:
FL winds = 73 kt
SFMR = 68 kt
Est. Sfc. Wind = 66 kt
FL winds = 73 kt
SFMR = 68 kt
Est. Sfc. Wind = 66 kt
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
This is the Second time that something like THIS happened in the last 2 days! 
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Pretty decent amount of hurricane-force SFMR with flight level winds to support the intensity. We may very well see Hurricane Grace at 11am.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:This is the Second time that something like THIS happened in the last 2 days!
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/recon_AF307-1307A-GRACE_dropsonde8_20210818-1404.png
Bruh what is up with these AF dropsondes? What does it think, this is the Red Spot on Jupiter?
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