ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[AtlanticWind]

This is a pretty small storm and can wrap up quickly, I would be preparing for the possibility of a major if I lived
on the Yucatan peninsula.

Very hard to forecast intensity in these situations as you could have anything from a Cat 1 if it is only
able to slowing organize to a maybe Cat 3 if able to quickly close off an eye.

[AtlanticWind]

The 12Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS model gave a 22% chance that Grace would rapidly intensify by 35 mph into an 85-mph category 1 hurricane by 8 a.m. Wednesday, when the storm will be close to Grand Cayman Island. The National Hurricane Center was predicting that Grace would be a 75-mph hurricane at that time. More eye-opening was the model’s prediction that Grace had a 33% chance of intensifying into a 125-mph category 3 hurricane by Friday morning, as it approached its final landfall in Mexico’s Veracruz state on the western Gulf of Mexico. Citing the unknown amount of disruption Grace might encounter while crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, NHC was conservative in its intensity forecast for that time, calling for Grace to be a minimal category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds.

From Jeff Masters earlier. Dont know if anyone had posted this but thought it was interesting.

[ElectricStorm]

It appears the previous eye drop was a bit off as the newest one supports a pressure of 1001mb so the pressure hasn't quite began to fall yet. I'd imagine that will change soon.

[chaser1]

This storm finally has a really credible COC. Grace might actually begin to take on a much more classical hurricane appearance tomorrow. A significantly stronger system might suggest it could gain a tad bit greater latitude prior to reaching Yucatan. I just wonder under what circumstances might this still remain a threat to Brownsville?

[Sciencerocks]

[kevin]

Looks like Grace is currently near the northern edge of the cone, which might have an impact on its eventual path and duration above land after the Yucatan landfall.

[Kohlecane]

Does look a bit on the northern side to me as well, 18.8N 89.8W IMO

[Iceresistance]

She is getting me really nervous now, that southern feeder band is exploding the convection, Super Typhoon Goni in 2020 had a similar structure while undergoing RI while a Tropical Storm . . .

[aspen]

Seems to me that the LLC is displaced a bit and is on the edge of the deep convection, possibly due to the PVS-induced shear. Recon and visible imagery will be able to tell us soon. The HWRF has been rather bearish with intensity in the WCar so maybe it’s on to something, which would be good for the Yucatán; better to have a Cat 1 than a major at landfall.

[Iceresistance]

It appears that the NOAA3 Mission into Grace had to be aborted because of a possible sensor failure . . .



The SFMR rain rate & wind speed measurements has appeared to stop working just as they wanted to go in!

[kevin]

It appears that the NOAA3 Mission into Grace had to be aborted because of a possible sensor failure . . .

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/recon_NOAA3-1207A-GRACE.png

The SFMR rain rate & wind speed measurements has appeared to stop working just as they wanted to go in!

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/recon_NOAA3-1207A-GRACE_timeseries.png

Every time I see a plane make a U-turn on the map I get flashbacks to Eta, that might still be the most chaotic day on the forum since I've joined.

[aspen]

It appears that the NOAA3 Mission into Grace had to be aborted because of a possible sensor failure . . .

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/recon_NOAA3-1207A-GRACE.png

The SFMR rain rate & wind speed measurements has appeared to stop working just as they wanted to go in!

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/recon_NOAA3-1207A-GRACE_timeseries.png

Nope, they’re fine. They were just heading north for a N to S pass, and are already turning into the circulation.

[Iceresistance]

It appears that the NOAA3 Mission into Grace had to be aborted because of a possible sensor failure . . .

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/recon_NOAA3-1207A-GRACE.png

The SFMR rain rate & wind speed measurements has appeared to stop working just as they wanted to go in!

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/recon_NOAA3-1207A-GRACE_timeseries.png

Nope, they’re fine. They were just heading north for a N to S pass, and are already turning into the circulation.

And of course, just I say that sensor is having issues, it's working again!

[tolakram]

AF allowed to fly over Cuba. Or they snuck across.

[aspen]

Looks to be around 999-1000 mbar, so it’s not intensifying quickly at all despite the nuclear grade SSTs. Or they might’ve missed the exact center.

[Owasso]

[GCANE]

Based on the deepening convection last night, I thought that PVS would be taken out.
This morning, it appears the opposite. Looks like it is strengthening.
This will put a lid on any strengthening of Grace in the near term.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks to be around 999-1000 mbar, so it’s not intensifying quickly at all despite the nuclear grade SSTs. Or they might’ve missed the exact center.

Yeah looks like it hasn't strengthened a whole lot 'yet'. Looking like it may be putting itself in a position for more rapid intensification as we go through the day though. But who knows every time I think a storm is about to take off if falls flat on its face in a few hours

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

 https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1427952684473126921




Looks like there has been some strengthening overnight, if these surface measurements are to be believed. Also, recon missed the center to the west, so pressure is probably a little lower than indicated on this first pass.

[Owasso]

993mb