WPAC: CHANTHU - Post-Tropical

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/0l4PHBe.png

Even the Ensembles are initiating way too high!

[cycloneye]

Wow.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm surprised the JTWC didn't forecast a Cat 5 on the advisory since it looks like it's about to be one. Probably pretty close now actually.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye refuses to warm so probably around 130 knots and leveled off. Comparable to Eta.

[sikkar]

[Iceresistance]

Eye refuses to warm so probably around 130 knots and leveled off. Comparable to Eta.

Or it's so small, you can't tell if it's warming up or not (Other case was Delta in 2020)

[aspen]

Eye refuses to warm so probably around 130 knots and leveled off. Comparable to Eta.

Today’s 06z HWRF run did show Chanthu leveling off as a pinhole Cat 4 right about now. I think the culprit is some shear limiting outflow on the NW side.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye refuses to warm so probably around 130 knots and leveled off. Comparable to Eta.

Or it's so small, you can't tell if it's warming up or not (Other case was Delta in 2020)

Just judging by outflow some northerly wind shear is bothering the system. And the eye is large enough (comparable to Maria which has a WMG eye) to resolve temperature trends, and the eye temperature has leveled off if not cooled in recent hours and never warmed past OW.

[ElectricStorm]

New HWRF bombs it for the next 12 hours before it begins weakening. Peaks at 914mb

[mrbagyo]

Saved Loop
Chanthu's structure is looking quite similar to STY Betty 1987 (my avatar)

[ElectricStorm]

Does looks like some northerly shear hitting it. We'll have to see if it still intensifies like the HWRF suggests it will in the next 12 hours.

[Ed_2001]

Not giving up yet, eye is starting to clear again over the past 20 minutes and the tiny CMG ring is consolidating during daytime. Time will tell.

[Yellow Evan]

WMG eye.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN11 PGTW 080016

A. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU)

B. 07/2350Z

C. 15.94N

D. 132.38E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 6.0. MET YIELDS A 5.5 AND PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

Ah this is the JTWC I remember. Embedded in B? What?

[sikkar]

Eye has become much more defined on IR loop. This is not done yet.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye looks great on IR now. Looks like HWRF is going to be right in the short term. Hopefully JTWC doesn't go with the awful Dvorak fix they just had.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ29 KNES 080007
TCSWNP

A. 19W (CHANTHU)

B. 07/2330Z

C. 16.0N

D. 132.4E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/GMI

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. AN
OFF WHITE EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY COLD MEDIUM GREY AND EMBEDDED IN
BLACK COLD OVERCAST MAKES THE DT EQUAL TO 6.0 AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF
+0.5 IS MADE TO THE DT. THE MET IS EQUAL TO 5.5 AND THE PT AGREES WITH
THE DT BASED ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

07/2120Z 16.1N 132.8E GMI


...SAMBUCCI

SAB makes the same mistake as JTWC lol.

[ElectricStorm]

Umm... No

19W CHANTHU 210908 0000 16.0N 132.3E WPAC 120 942

[aspen]

Umm... No

19W CHANTHU 210908 0000 16.0N 132.3E WPAC 120 942

WHAT

The eye just went positive! How do you justifying weakening? And please don’t tell me it’s because ADT decided to stop focusing on the eye again.

[Hayabusa]

Moving wsw now

WTPQ21 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 16.0N 132.4E GOOD
MOVE WSW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 15.9N 129.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 100000UTC 17.9N 125.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 110000UTC 20.8N 122.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =