ATL: HENRI - Models

[IcyTundra]

18Z ICON shows landfall at Cape Cod this Sunday.

[xironman]

https://twitter.com/WxRiskGrains/status/1428056924394774532

DT is freaking out on a 50/50 low during the summer, kind of makes sense. Not a climatologically prefered setup. But that is what is on the table with the GFS op. At this point though Hybridstorm definitely has a point. We could take odds on Fox Point closing.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The new GFS run continues to show a hurricane heading towards Long Island. Looks like a ridge is preventing it from heading OTS.

Along with an upper-level low that hooks Henri back westward. If this scenario verifies it'll be a one in a million badly timed shoot for the Eastern Seaboard ala Superstorm Sandy 2012, very rare.

This is nothing like Sandy right now. I wish people would stop bringing it up lol it turned into a hybrid and had its own characteristics because of that. New England is no stranger to strong hurricanes. We've just been in a quiet period for 30 years. There have been decades where they were struck by multiple hurricanes in one decade

I meant in terms of track mechanisms not storm structure or possible evolution, jeez.

Edit - In those terms, Henri reminds me a lot of Juan 2003 which hammered Central Nova Scotia PEI.

[xironman]

It is a classic east coast storm setup. The 50/50 south of Greenland and the ridge over northern NE. My guess is the synoptics will eventually line up with the climatology and cancel this out.

[JtSmarts]

GFS shifts back east to just offshore.

[Woofde]

GFS shifts back east to just offshore.

We really need recon in there, the GFS shows a 1000mb storm at 8pm which doesn't seem right when compared to how Henri is actually doing. The intensity of Henri will be vital to the track it takes.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1428125741087080451

[jaxfladude]

12Z GFS. You can see the escape route, it's just a matter of timing. The GFS is bad at timing.

The Long Island Bisect?

Edit:
I know thus is now an earlier model run...but still crazy times....!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1428121017029906439

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

There is always a chance the upper-level low will not fully capture Henri or capture him at all, and he'll move off-shore. I think this will be nailing biting until later tomorrow or maybe into the weekend when the track projection stabilizes. There are too many unknown verifiable right now (i,e. exact strength & position of the Atlantic Ridge and the extent of the upper-level low over the East). The ghost of Fred is further complicating matters along with a weak background cold front for this weekend.

[Kohlecane]

So far HMON initiates well for 18z IMO, I think this storm is closer to 996/995 if not lower right now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z HWRF finally coming in more realistic and actually has Henri struggling through 48 hours. Decouples it briefly due to shear even.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z HWRF finally coming in more realistic and actually has Henri struggling through 48 hours. Decouples it briefly due to shear even.

Disagree. Initialization is 1003mb which very likely too high. Not surprising though, since I believe it derives it’s initial conditions from the GFS

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z HWRF finally coming in more realistic and actually has Henri struggling through 48 hours. Decouples it briefly due to shear even.

Disagree. Initialization is 1003mb which very likely too high. Not surprising though, since I believe it derives it’s initial conditions from the GFS

It's a tad weak yeah, but not nearly as terrible as the Euro's initialization.

[BobHarlem]

18z HMON shifts right quite from from 12z which was closer to the Hamptons in Long Island. This time no landfall, but it does clip Nantucket very close.

I know there's a bit of a novelty New England track bias at storm2k, but I think this one will stay offshore, but may get uncomfortably close. We will very much appreciate recon in this one tomorrow to help see (since stronger implies more west in this setup)

[BobHarlem]

18z HWRF starts off weak, gains some steam later, then effective stalls for 24 hours at/over eastern long island on Monday.

[IcyTundra]

0Z ICON further west

[BobHarlem]

0z icon, shift left and does a loop over MA, NH, CT, then long island then heads toward Nova Scotia.

[ColdMiser123]

GFS a decent bit south of 18z, and 9 mb stronger through hour 24.

Actually a tad SW of even the 12z run.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The latest ICON run reminds me of Esther 1961.

Fun fact, Esther played a role in the infamous alleged Betty and Barney Hill UFO incident.