BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021
...LARRY STAYING LARGE AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS
NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 62.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Bonavista
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 62.3 West. Larry is moving
toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h). A further increase in
forward speed is expected tonight with a turn to the northeast
forecast by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will
continue to move away from Bermuda tonight, and move near or over
southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday, but Larry
is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland.
Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, and is
now forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low near
Greenland by the end of the weekend.
Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern
Newfoundland by late Friday.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern
Newfoundland.
SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will
continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern
Newfoundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021
There is not much new to report in the satellite structure with
Larry this evening. The hurricane consists of a small core region of
cold convective cloud tops near and just north of the center with a
much larger concentric band of more moderate convective activity
encircling the smaller core. Radar from Bermuda also shows this
structure well even as the hurricane pulls away from the island. The
most recent subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from SAB
and TAFB were unchanged from this afternoon, and the initial
intensity will remain at 80 kt for this advisory.
Larry is now moving to the north and beginning to accelerate at
360/20 kt. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Larry
should soon turn to the northeast and continue accelerating quickly
ahead of a large mid-latitude trough. On the current track, Larry
should pass near or over southeastern Newfoundland tomorrow night or
Saturday morning, becoming post-tropical shortly after it passes by.
The post-tropical cyclone Larry should continue to move rapidly to
the northeast until it is absorbed by the aforementioned
mid-latitude trough after 48 hours. The official track forecast
again lies close to the various consensus model predictions, and is
just a touch faster than the previous forecast.
Larry has another 12 hours or so over warm Gulf Stream waters, and
most of the guidance is in agreement that the hurricane should
maintain its intensity in the short-term. However, more gradual
weakening should begin thereafter once Larry moves over much cooler
waters. Unfortunately, there is not much time for Larry to weaken
before the hurricane impacts Newfoundland, and it also is possible
the rapidly approaching mid-latitude trough will provide some
baroclinic forcing that could expand the wind field of the
hurricane further. The NHC intensity forecast remain close to the
latest HCCA guidance which is quite similar to the previous
forecast. After 24 hours, the latest forecast GFS and ECMWF
simulated IR brightness temperature suggest that Larry's convection
should quickly shear off after passing by Newfoundland, with the
hurricane becoming a powerful post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours.
Both of these models now also suggest the post-tropical cyclone
will quickly be stretched and then absorbed as its captured by an
even larger extratropical cyclone produced by the upstream
trough after 48 hours.
Key Messages:
1. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning as it undergoes
transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane
conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of
southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.
2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells will cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and
other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
guidance of lifeguards and local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 35.5N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 45.1N 56.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 52.0N 49.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0000Z 58.1N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021
...LARRY STAYING LARGE AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS
NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 62.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Bonavista
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 62.3 West. Larry is moving
toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h). A further increase in
forward speed is expected tonight with a turn to the northeast
forecast by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will
continue to move away from Bermuda tonight, and move near or over
southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday, but Larry
is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland.
Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, and is
now forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low near
Greenland by the end of the weekend.
Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern
Newfoundland by late Friday.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern
Newfoundland.
SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will
continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern
Newfoundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021
There is not much new to report in the satellite structure with
Larry this evening. The hurricane consists of a small core region of
cold convective cloud tops near and just north of the center with a
much larger concentric band of more moderate convective activity
encircling the smaller core. Radar from Bermuda also shows this
structure well even as the hurricane pulls away from the island. The
most recent subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from SAB
and TAFB were unchanged from this afternoon, and the initial
intensity will remain at 80 kt for this advisory.
Larry is now moving to the north and beginning to accelerate at
360/20 kt. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Larry
should soon turn to the northeast and continue accelerating quickly
ahead of a large mid-latitude trough. On the current track, Larry
should pass near or over southeastern Newfoundland tomorrow night or
Saturday morning, becoming post-tropical shortly after it passes by.
The post-tropical cyclone Larry should continue to move rapidly to
the northeast until it is absorbed by the aforementioned
mid-latitude trough after 48 hours. The official track forecast
again lies close to the various consensus model predictions, and is
just a touch faster than the previous forecast.
Larry has another 12 hours or so over warm Gulf Stream waters, and
most of the guidance is in agreement that the hurricane should
maintain its intensity in the short-term. However, more gradual
weakening should begin thereafter once Larry moves over much cooler
waters. Unfortunately, there is not much time for Larry to weaken
before the hurricane impacts Newfoundland, and it also is possible
the rapidly approaching mid-latitude trough will provide some
baroclinic forcing that could expand the wind field of the
hurricane further. The NHC intensity forecast remain close to the
latest HCCA guidance which is quite similar to the previous
forecast. After 24 hours, the latest forecast GFS and ECMWF
simulated IR brightness temperature suggest that Larry's convection
should quickly shear off after passing by Newfoundland, with the
hurricane becoming a powerful post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours.
Both of these models now also suggest the post-tropical cyclone
will quickly be stretched and then absorbed as its captured by an
even larger extratropical cyclone produced by the upstream
trough after 48 hours.
Key Messages:
1. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning as it undergoes
transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane
conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of
southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.
2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells will cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and
other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
guidance of lifeguards and local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 35.5N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 45.1N 56.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 52.0N 49.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0000Z 58.1N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin