BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020
800 PM CVT Fri Jul 31 2020
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 20.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 20.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the
west-northwest and west on Saturday and Saturday night. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass
north of the northernmost Cabo Verde Islands tonight and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system could become a short-lived tropical storm later tonight.
However, weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and the system
is expected to become a remnant low Saturday night.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020
800 PM CVT Fri Jul 31 2020
Deep convection has recently developed closer to the center of a
small area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Earlier ASCAT data indicated peak winds of
around 25 kt, but given the small size of the system and the likely
undersampling of the instrument, the initial intensity is set at 30
kt. This is in line with a Dvorak classification of T2.0 from SAB.
With the recent increase in convective organization, there is a
potential for the depression to become a short-lived tropical storm
tonight. After that time, the environment is forecast to become
increasingly hostile as cooler waters and less favorable
thermodynamic conditions lie ahead. As a result, weakening should
begin on Saturday and the system is forecast to become a remnant low
Saturday night and dissipate shortly thereafter.
The system is moving slightly west of due north, or 355/8 kt. The
depression is forecast to turn northwestward tonight, then
west-northwestward to westward on Saturday and Saturday night as it
moves around the eastern side of a large cyclonic gyre over the far
eastern Atlantic. The track guidance is in relatively good
agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the TVCA multi-model
consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/2100Z 15.9N 20.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.3N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.5N 23.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 18.8N 25.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020
800 PM CVT Fri Jul 31 2020
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 20.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 20.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the
west-northwest and west on Saturday and Saturday night. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass
north of the northernmost Cabo Verde Islands tonight and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system could become a short-lived tropical storm later tonight.
However, weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and the system
is expected to become a remnant low Saturday night.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020
800 PM CVT Fri Jul 31 2020
Deep convection has recently developed closer to the center of a
small area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Earlier ASCAT data indicated peak winds of
around 25 kt, but given the small size of the system and the likely
undersampling of the instrument, the initial intensity is set at 30
kt. This is in line with a Dvorak classification of T2.0 from SAB.
With the recent increase in convective organization, there is a
potential for the depression to become a short-lived tropical storm
tonight. After that time, the environment is forecast to become
increasingly hostile as cooler waters and less favorable
thermodynamic conditions lie ahead. As a result, weakening should
begin on Saturday and the system is forecast to become a remnant low
Saturday night and dissipate shortly thereafter.
The system is moving slightly west of due north, or 355/8 kt. The
depression is forecast to turn northwestward tonight, then
west-northwestward to westward on Saturday and Saturday night as it
moves around the eastern side of a large cyclonic gyre over the far
eastern Atlantic. The track guidance is in relatively good
agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the TVCA multi-model
consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/2100Z 15.9N 20.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.3N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.5N 23.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 18.8N 25.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown