ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

I have never seen a drop in pressure from one pass to the next like this.
Absolutely incredible!!!

[AJC3]

OMG that is near a 6!
How strong is that? 165 mph?

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)


CI -- Current Intensity
MWS -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in Millibars

[Iceresistance]

OMG that is near a 6!
How strong is that? 165 mph?

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)


CI -- Current Intensity
MWS -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in Millibars

It's somehow behind. A 6.5 would sound sensible.

[Chris90]

The frequent lightning and hail suggest some pretty extreme updrafts. There was hail/ice pellets in Felix too when he bombed out in '07.

I'm going to guess that when the current recon flight gets there they find something like 908mb/150-155kts during first pass.

[AJC3]

It's somehow behind. A 6.5 would sound sensible.

It's an objective approximation. There can be considerable variance between Dvorak CI estimates and actual MSW/MSLP...in both directions, as we learned with Eta.

[Iceresistance]

It's somehow behind. A 6.5 would sound sensible.

It's an objective approximation. There is considerable variance between Dvorak CI estimates and actual MSW/MSLP...in both directions, as we learned with Eta.

Very true, there must be varations in order to avoid problems with systems like Iota

[Iceresistance]

The frequent lightning and hail suggest some pretty extreme updrafts. There was hail/ice pellets in Felix too when he bombed out in '07.

I'm going to guess that when the current recon flight gets there they find something like 908mb/150-155kts during first pass.

Not just that:

[GCANE]

Extreme eyewall lightning

[Iceresistance]

Extreme eyewall lightning

https://i.imgur.com/JgL4aZs.png

Eta had a crazy amout of eyewall lightning as well!

[Owasso]

Passing just north of Providencia Island. Must be unreal conditions for them in the eyewall. Hoping they all make it out okay..

[Iceresistance]

Crazy amount of lightning

[Kingarabian]

Iota is definitely a looker. Prayers to those in CA.

[GCANE]

Looks like the mesovorts are clearing out.
Nearly perfectly circular eye.

[Iceresistance]

This is likely the last thing you want to see before landfall.

[ClarCari]

The moment it gets rid of all pink cloud tops on IR, it starts adding more.

Yikes

[underthwx]

This is likely the last thing you want to see before landfall.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202011160935_13.00_14.00_-82.25_-80.50_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_weathernerds.png

I agree....

[Ryxn]

How long until the plane reaches the center on Iota? I'm not sure if the most recent mission has begun yet.

[Owasso]

How long until the plane reaches the center on Iota? I'm not sure if the most recent mission has begun yet.

Probably not for at least another an hour and a half or so.

[ClarCari]

How long until the plane reaches the center on Iota? I'm not sure if the most recent mission has begun yet.

It’s currently zooming thru the Gulf. I’d say around 2&1/2 to 3 hours. Sometimes they get there earlier or later depending on Plane speed and how much the storm has moved.

[kevin]

How long until the plane reaches the center on Iota? I'm not sure if the most recent mission has begun yet.

Recon is on its way now, about 750 miles from the center. So probably 2.5 - 3 hours until we get a first pass.