ATL: ETA - Models

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#921 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:29 pm

Not liking the trend for the northern gulf coast
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#922 Postby crownweather » Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:38 pm

SFLcane wrote:06z COAMPS model forecasting pretty rapid intensification in the nw Caribbean Sea.

https://i.imgur.com/uPAqIPs.gif


FWIW, the COAMPS has done about as well as the HWRF with sniffing out intensification this season. It's caught a few RIs before the GFS and Euro even had a clue. So, this COAMPS forecast is interesting.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#923 Postby SFLcane » Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:45 pm

crownweather wrote:
SFLcane wrote:06z COAMPS model forecasting pretty rapid intensification in the nw Caribbean Sea.

https://i.imgur.com/uPAqIPs.gif


FWIW, the COAMPS has done about as well as the HWRF with sniffing out intensification this season. It's caught a few RIs before the GFS and Euro even had a clue. So, this COAMPS forecast is interesting.


Yep!
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#924 Postby otowntiger » Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:55 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:12z Euro lookin' pretty unimpressive as far as intensity goes.
that goes for the vast majority of the models. I think there are just too many variables in play that will keep Eta, or what's left of her in check or weaken it once it emerges from the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#925 Postby Blown Away » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:00 pm

Image
12z ICON - If Eta goes E of FL then back W, the ICON yesterday first sniffed it out.
Last edited by Blown Away on Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#926 Postby LarryWx » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:12 pm

crownweather wrote:
SFLcane wrote:06z COAMPS model forecasting pretty rapid intensification in the nw Caribbean Sea.

https://i.imgur.com/uPAqIPs.gif


FWIW, the COAMPS has done about as well as the HWRF with sniffing out intensification this season. It's caught a few RIs before the GFS and Euro even had a clue. So, this COAMPS forecast is interesting.


Does anyone have a public link to the COAMPS?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#927 Postby crownweather » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:14 pm

LarryWx wrote:
crownweather wrote:
SFLcane wrote:06z COAMPS model forecasting pretty rapid intensification in the nw Caribbean Sea.

https://i.imgur.com/uPAqIPs.gif


FWIW, the COAMPS has done about as well as the HWRF with sniffing out intensification this season. It's caught a few RIs before the GFS and Euro even had a clue. So, this COAMPS forecast is interesting.


Does anyone have a public link to the COAMPS?


https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/ens?&spg=1
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#928 Postby SFLcane » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:17 pm

LarryWx wrote:
crownweather wrote:
SFLcane wrote:06z COAMPS model forecasting pretty rapid intensification in the nw Caribbean Sea.

https://i.imgur.com/uPAqIPs.gif


FWIW, the COAMPS has done about as well as the HWRF with sniffing out intensification this season. It's caught a few RIs before the GFS and Euro even had a clue. So, this COAMPS forecast is interesting.


Does anyone have a public link to the COAMPS?


You can also use this link. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/index.php
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#929 Postby Blown Away » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:17 pm

Image
12z Navgem
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#930 Postby Blown Away » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:19 pm

Image
12z GFS
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#931 Postby underthwx » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:33 pm

crownweather wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
crownweather wrote:
FWIW, the COAMPS has done about as well as the HWRF with sniffing out intensification this season. It's caught a few RIs before the GFS and Euro even had a clue. So, this COAMPS forecast is interesting.


Does anyone have a public link to the COAMPS?


https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/ens?&spg=1


Very cool!!!.....Thankyou!....now I gotta figure it out :double:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#932 Postby VortexFl » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:37 pm

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#933 Postby Blown Away » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:43 pm



Truly the only analog that looks like the current modeling.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#934 Postby Blown Away » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:43 pm

Image
Coamps showing an intensifying hurricane moving towards Cuba/FL.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#935 Postby Nimbus » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:03 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Not liking the trend for the northern gulf coast


Five day some models have something in the Straits of Florida, HWRF has it running up the east coast of Florida, GFS has it running up inland through Florida emerging as a weak system near Tampa bay and HMON has a weaker system drifting north in the central gulf.

November is often a quiet month but Eta isn't going to the Pacific according to consensus so Alabama and points further east are favored for late season CoNus landfalls.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#936 Postby underthwx » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:08 pm



That's pretty close to some of the current models.... thanks for posting the images!
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#937 Postby gatorcane » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:23 pm

ICON:

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#938 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:26 pm

Who wants to place a bet! Left, right, or over the peninsula? :lol:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#939 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:27 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/cG4w6fU.jpg
Coamps showing an intensifying hurricane moving towards Cuba/FL.

Looks to be weakening from Cat.3 to Cat.2?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#940 Postby LarryWx » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:29 pm

12Z UKMET is WILD as shoot! Eta still moves well WSW of other models into El Salvador and then into the EPac; then dissipates offshore; then it or another forms well to the south offshore in the EPAC and gets stronger while moving N; then that turns east and landfalls in N Guatemala and then dissipates

HURRICANE ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 83.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.11.2020 0 13.5N 83.5W 955 72
0000UTC 04.11.2020 12 13.2N 84.4W 985 40
1200UTC 04.11.2020 24 13.4N 86.0W 998 35
0000UTC 05.11.2020 36 13.4N 87.7W 1002 31
1200UTC 05.11.2020 48 14.9N 93.0W 1002 40
0000UTC 06.11.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING

EW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.6N 92.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.11.2020 72 11.6N 92.8W 1003 36
0000UTC 07.11.2020 84 12.7N 92.8W 1000 35
1200UTC 07.11.2020 96 13.3N 92.8W 997 43
0000UTC 08.11.2020 108 14.0N 92.8W 993 49
1200UTC 08.11.2020 120 14.2N 91.8W 1003 35
0000UTC 09.11.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING

Being that the UKMET is a far left outlier and tends to have a left bias, could this be right? Please be objective.
Last edited by LarryWx on Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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