ATL: ETA - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- crownweather
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 595
- Age: 50
- Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:21 am
- Location: Sturbridge, Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
SFLcane wrote:06z COAMPS model forecasting pretty rapid intensification in the nw Caribbean Sea.
https://i.imgur.com/uPAqIPs.gif
FWIW, the COAMPS has done about as well as the HWRF with sniffing out intensification this season. It's caught a few RIs before the GFS and Euro even had a clue. So, this COAMPS forecast is interesting.
3 likes
Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10163
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
crownweather wrote:SFLcane wrote:06z COAMPS model forecasting pretty rapid intensification in the nw Caribbean Sea.
https://i.imgur.com/uPAqIPs.gif
FWIW, the COAMPS has done about as well as the HWRF with sniffing out intensification this season. It's caught a few RIs before the GFS and Euro even had a clue. So, this COAMPS forecast is interesting.
Yep!
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1921
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
that goes for the vast majority of the models. I think there are just too many variables in play that will keep Eta, or what's left of her in check or weaken it once it emerges from the Caribbean.Hypercane_Kyle wrote:12z Euro lookin' pretty unimpressive as far as intensity goes.
0 likes
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10146
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: ETA - Models

12z ICON - If Eta goes E of FL then back W, the ICON yesterday first sniffed it out.
Last edited by Blown Away on Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
3 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
crownweather wrote:SFLcane wrote:06z COAMPS model forecasting pretty rapid intensification in the nw Caribbean Sea.
https://i.imgur.com/uPAqIPs.gif
FWIW, the COAMPS has done about as well as the HWRF with sniffing out intensification this season. It's caught a few RIs before the GFS and Euro even had a clue. So, this COAMPS forecast is interesting.
Does anyone have a public link to the COAMPS?
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- crownweather
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 595
- Age: 50
- Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:21 am
- Location: Sturbridge, Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
LarryWx wrote:crownweather wrote:SFLcane wrote:06z COAMPS model forecasting pretty rapid intensification in the nw Caribbean Sea.
https://i.imgur.com/uPAqIPs.gif
FWIW, the COAMPS has done about as well as the HWRF with sniffing out intensification this season. It's caught a few RIs before the GFS and Euro even had a clue. So, this COAMPS forecast is interesting.
Does anyone have a public link to the COAMPS?
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/ens?&spg=1
3 likes
Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10163
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
LarryWx wrote:crownweather wrote:SFLcane wrote:06z COAMPS model forecasting pretty rapid intensification in the nw Caribbean Sea.
https://i.imgur.com/uPAqIPs.gif
FWIW, the COAMPS has done about as well as the HWRF with sniffing out intensification this season. It's caught a few RIs before the GFS and Euro even had a clue. So, this COAMPS forecast is interesting.
Does anyone have a public link to the COAMPS?
You can also use this link. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/index.php
0 likes
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10146
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: ETA - Models

12z Navgem
1 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10146
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: ETA - Models

12z GFS
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
crownweather wrote:LarryWx wrote:crownweather wrote:
FWIW, the COAMPS has done about as well as the HWRF with sniffing out intensification this season. It's caught a few RIs before the GFS and Euro even had a clue. So, this COAMPS forecast is interesting.
Does anyone have a public link to the COAMPS?
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/ens?&spg=1
Very cool!!!.....Thankyou!....now I gotta figure it out

1 likes
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Hurricane King may be a decent analog..
https://images.app.goo.gl/zicVvB8T3eNdWJJWA
https://images.app.goo.gl/rgvys7yo2Y7hbCwf7
https://images.app.goo.gl/zicVvB8T3eNdWJJWA
https://images.app.goo.gl/rgvys7yo2Y7hbCwf7
3 likes
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10146
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
VortexFl wrote:Hurricane King may be a decent analog..
https://images.app.goo.gl/zicVvB8T3eNdWJJWA
https://images.app.goo.gl/rgvys7yo2Y7hbCwf7
Truly the only analog that looks like the current modeling.
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10146
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: ETA - Models

Coamps showing an intensifying hurricane moving towards Cuba/FL.
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Ivanhater wrote:Not liking the trend for the northern gulf coast
Five day some models have something in the Straits of Florida, HWRF has it running up the east coast of Florida, GFS has it running up inland through Florida emerging as a weak system near Tampa bay and HMON has a weaker system drifting north in the central gulf.
November is often a quiet month but Eta isn't going to the Pacific according to consensus so Alabama and points further east are favored for late season CoNus landfalls.
0 likes
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
VortexFl wrote:Hurricane King may be a decent analog..
https://images.app.goo.gl/zicVvB8T3eNdWJJWA
https://images.app.goo.gl/rgvys7yo2Y7hbCwf7
That's pretty close to some of the current models.... thanks for posting the images!
0 likes
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/cG4w6fU.jpg
Coamps showing an intensifying hurricane moving towards Cuba/FL.
Looks to be weakening from Cat.3 to Cat.2?
1 likes
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
12Z UKMET is WILD as shoot! Eta still moves well WSW of other models into El Salvador and then into the EPac; then dissipates offshore; then it or another forms well to the south offshore in the EPAC and gets stronger while moving N; then that turns east and landfalls in N Guatemala and then dissipates
HURRICANE ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 83.5W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.11.2020 0 13.5N 83.5W 955 72
0000UTC 04.11.2020 12 13.2N 84.4W 985 40
1200UTC 04.11.2020 24 13.4N 86.0W 998 35
0000UTC 05.11.2020 36 13.4N 87.7W 1002 31
1200UTC 05.11.2020 48 14.9N 93.0W 1002 40
0000UTC 06.11.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING
EW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.6N 92.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.11.2020 72 11.6N 92.8W 1003 36
0000UTC 07.11.2020 84 12.7N 92.8W 1000 35
1200UTC 07.11.2020 96 13.3N 92.8W 997 43
0000UTC 08.11.2020 108 14.0N 92.8W 993 49
1200UTC 08.11.2020 120 14.2N 91.8W 1003 35
0000UTC 09.11.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING
Being that the UKMET is a far left outlier and tends to have a left bias, could this be right? Please be objective.
HURRICANE ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 83.5W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.11.2020 0 13.5N 83.5W 955 72
0000UTC 04.11.2020 12 13.2N 84.4W 985 40
1200UTC 04.11.2020 24 13.4N 86.0W 998 35
0000UTC 05.11.2020 36 13.4N 87.7W 1002 31
1200UTC 05.11.2020 48 14.9N 93.0W 1002 40
0000UTC 06.11.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING
EW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.6N 92.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.11.2020 72 11.6N 92.8W 1003 36
0000UTC 07.11.2020 84 12.7N 92.8W 1000 35
1200UTC 07.11.2020 96 13.3N 92.8W 997 43
0000UTC 08.11.2020 108 14.0N 92.8W 993 49
1200UTC 08.11.2020 120 14.2N 91.8W 1003 35
0000UTC 09.11.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING
Being that the UKMET is a far left outlier and tends to have a left bias, could this be right? Please be objective.
Last edited by LarryWx on Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests