ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Is the eye temperture in the postives?

[kevin]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...IOTA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE......EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS,
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 81.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 81.1W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 80.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.1N 83.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.3N 85.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 86.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.1N 88.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.8N 89.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

[Iceresistance]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...IOTA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE......EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS,
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 81.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

Not far away from a CAT 5

[ClarCari]

Gonna be an interesting Full Discussion.

Public Advisory Discussion already states this could become a Category 5..

[Iceresistance]

Gonna be an interesting Full Discussion.

Public Advisory Discussion already states this could become a Category 5..

They were thinking about that in Eta, then there wan an EWRC.

[Cyclenall]

Looks like July 2005 has met its match and my question remains to all, assuming both Eta and Iota are CAT5s, which month is more insane?

We might be seeing some of the fastest intensification documented in the Atlantic basin, feels like that's been the case over and over this fall. Iota is the real deal, this is what perfect ventilation in all quads gets you in that pocket down there. The other powerful and EI hurricane to have hail in the VDM was Felix which was nearby and becoming a CAT5. The chances of Iota becoming one and dropping below 910 mb are hastening. Someone mentioned that Mondays recently have featured explosive deepening rounds; how does a 10 mb/hr drop to start this Monday sound?

“Assuming Eta” I love how we just ignore that NHC knows what they are doing and just assume all hurricanes are stronger than they say they are so we can update our Wikipedia pages.

During the critical hours during Eta's peak recon wasn't able to sample the strongest quad (of course) but even without all that, multiple indications are that it was a CAT5 but slipped through the advisory brackets. The most disgusting hours of tropical meteorology science since I started following (not the NHC's fault, just the 2020isms all together).

[Keldeo1997]

Recon is off! Could be a Historic mission

[kevin]

We have a plane in the air, I repeat we have a plane in the air.

[ClarCari]

Gonna be an interesting Full Discussion.

Public Advisory Discussion already states this could become a Category 5..

They were thinking about that in Eta, then there was an EWRC.

The same discussion that forecasted a 5 for Eta also stated there was some evidence of concentric eyewalls. Iota so far has no evidence of that so this story is written differently...

[Iceresistance]

Gonna be an interesting Full Discussion.

Public Advisory Discussion already states this could become a Category 5..

They were thinking about that in Eta, then there wan an EWRC.

The same discussion that forecasted a 5 for Eta also stated there was some evidence of concentric eyewalls. Iota so far has no evidence of that so this story is written differently...

So Iota does have a chance.

[ClarCari]

They were thinking about that in Eta, then there wan an EWRC.

The same discussion that forecasted a 5 for Eta also stated there was some evidence of concentric eyewalls. Iota so far has no evidence of that so this story is written differently...

So Iota does have a chance.

Short Answer: Yes. Strong chance actually.

Long Answer: Very likely, but hopefully an EWRC can knock it down after it’s peak intensity. No sign of that happening anytime soon however.

Also man the NHC are really taking their time with the Full Discussion. It’s gonna be reeaall important!

[otowntiger]

Let’s hope for the good folks in Nicaragua and Honduras Sakes that this thing has an EWRC like Eta did and weaken a lot before landfall.

[Iceresistance]

The same discussion that forecasted a 5 for Eta also stated there was some evidence of concentric eyewalls. Iota so far has no evidence of that so this story is written differently...

So Iota does have a chance.

Short Answer: Yes. Strong chance actually.

Long Answer: Very likely, but hopefully an EWRC can knock it down after it’s peak intensity. No sign of that happening anytime soon however.

Also man the NHC are really taking their time with the Full Discussion. It’s gonna be reeaall important!

I noticed that too. They are having to figure out on how strong Iota might get, it's posed to be even stronger than Eta

[Iceresistance]

What is the current Dvorak intensity? And the Raw T#?

[Iceresistance]

Eye temperture now up to 5C

It's in the positives

[kevin]

What is the current Dvorak intensity? And the Raw T#?

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 NOV 2020 Time : 082015 UTC
Lat : 13:34:11 N Lon : 81:05:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 945.3mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.1 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +7.9C Cloud Region Temp : -75.6C

[kevin]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 160855
TCDAT1

Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

Iota has explosively deepened 26 mb during the past 6 hours and has
rapidly intensified an incredible 35 kt during that same time. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and aircrew that flew the
arduous, 10-hour round-trip mission into Iota reported a maximum
700-mb flight-level wind speed of 134 kt and peak SFMR surface winds
of 121 kt, which supports the initial intensity of 125 kt, making
Iota a strong Category 4 hurricane. Furthermore, the pressure fell
an amazing 10 mb from 945 mb down to 935 mb in a little over an hour
between those two fixes. The crew also encountered intense lightning
and hail in the southwestern quadrant, where recent remote data
indicate that frequent lightning is still occurring. The aircrew
reported that the eye was around 15 n mi wide, and the latest
GOES-16 hi-resolution infrared satellite imagery confirms that the
eye diameter, and that the eye has cleared out with continued
warming eye temperatures and cooling surrounding cloud tops.

Iota is moving north of due west, or 280/09 kt. A westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast until powerful Hurricane Iota
makes landfall in northeastern Nicaragua later tonight. Shortly
after landfall, a building ridge to the north of the hurricane is
expected to nudge Iota on a more westward track through 36 hours,
followed by a slower west-southwestward motion across central and
southwestern Honduras until it dissipates in the 72-96 hour
period. The latest model guidance remains tightly clustered. The
new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory
track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus track models TVCN,
NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Iota is expected to remain in environmental conditions characterized
by near-zero vertical wind shear, SSTs near 29 deg C, and a moist
mid-level environment. The combination of these factors plus the
relatively small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of about 10 n mi,
argues for continued rapid strengthening right up until landfall
occurs, and Iota could be near Category 5 strength at that time.
After landfall, rapid weakening is expected over the rugged terrain
of Nicaragua and Honduras. Iota is forecast to become a tropical
storm by 36 hours, and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low
by 60 hours, if not sooner, which is in line with the SHIPS
intensity inland decay model. The NHC official intensity forecast
remains above of all of the available guidance through 24 hours, and
then closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity model thereafter.


Key Messages:

1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and could
possibly be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches
the coast of Central America tonight. Extreme winds and a
life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the
coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, where a
hurricane warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions and storm surge impacts are likely on
Providencia today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and
hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres.

3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions
of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua
could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there,
resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 13.6N 81.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 14.1N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1800Z 14.3N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 14.3N 86.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1800Z 14.1N 88.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 19/0600Z 13.8N 89.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[NorthieStangl]

Apparently, in tropical meteorology, November is the new September.

Eta knocked Laura down as the strongest storm of the year on November 3rd. And just 2 weeks later, Iota is giving Eta a run for its money. What a very bizarre season.

[Iceresistance]

What is the current Dvorak intensity? And the Raw T#?

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 NOV 2020 Time : 082015 UTC
Lat : 13:34:11 N Lon : 81:05:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 945.3mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.1 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +7.9C Cloud Region Temp : -75.6C

OMG that is near a 6!
How strong is that? 165 mph?

[Iceresistance]

Iota has explosively deepened 26 mb during the past 6 hours and has
rapidly intensified an incredible 35 kt during that same time. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and aircrew that flew the
arduous, 10-hour round-trip mission into Iota reported a maximum
700-mb flight-level wind speed of 134 kt and peak SFMR surface winds
of 121 kt, which supports the initial intensity of 125 kt, making
Iota a strong Category 4 hurricane. Furthermore, the pressure fell
an amazing 10 mb from 945 mb down to 935 mb in a little over an hour
between those two fixes. The crew also encountered intense lightning
and hail in the southwestern quadrant, where recent remote data
indicate that frequent lightning is still occurring. The aircrew
reported that the eye was around 15 n mi wide, and the latest
GOES-16 hi-resolution infrared satellite imagery confirms that the
eye diameter, and that the eye has cleared out with continued
warming eye temperatures and cooling surrounding cloud tops.

They encountered hail?