ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

GFS did pretty decently with this in the long range just dropped it for some reason in the medium range. Maybe modeling issues can be hammered out in the off season.

[aspen]

There it is, hurricane #11. And that other very strong signal for the Caribbean might become #12 later. I hope this puts any discussion about 2020 not being that active, since the ACE is relatively low, to bed.

im sure that after Zeta and future Eta fling 2020 into hyperactive status they'll still find something to complain about

i'll predict that it's the lack of a cat 5. 2020 wasn't that active cause it had no cat 5 guys!!!!

Speaking of future Eta, it’s perhaps the last good shot 2020 has to produce a Cat 5, if it takes a Caribbean cruiser-like track like the CMC is predicting.

28+ named storms, 12 hurricanes, 5 majors, a Cat 5, and hyperactive ACE should finally get even the biggest season doubters to quiet. Once Zeta finishes up, we’ll be looking at 27/11/4 and 140 ACE. Absolutely bonkers.

[Kingarabian]

The GFS nailed another one from its long range forecast.

Yeah too bad it has been atrocious in the EPAC though.

[weeniepatrol]

Speaking of future Eta, it’s perhaps the last good shot 2020 has to produce a Cat 5, if it takes a Caribbean cruiser-like track like the CMC is predicting.

28+ named storms, 12 hurricanes, 5 majors, a Cat 5, and hyperactive ACE should finally get even the biggest season doubters to quiet. Once Zeta finishes up, we’ll be looking at 27/11/4 and 140 ACE. Absolutely bonkers.

I will literally eat crow if our cat 5 is in November

[EquusStorm]

Then we have mid-late November (Lenny/Kate/Otto anyone?) to go despite the MJO looking less favorable later on, and if we get a decent blocking pattern we could get more mid-latitude systems through the month into December as well. 2005's Delta/Epsilon/Zeta fresh in mind. Another hurricane after future Eta seems possible if that happens and 30 named storms isn't off the table entirely. If that's not one of the most jaw-dropping amazing hurricane seasons ever I don't know what people expect but it'd be hard to top this without something as absurd as a 2005 repeat.

[kevin]

There it is, hurricane #11. And that other very strong signal for the Caribbean might become #12 later. I hope this puts any discussion about 2020 not being that active, since the ACE is relatively low, to bed.

im sure that after Zeta and future Eta fling 2020 into hyperactive status they'll still find something to complain about

i'll predict that it's the lack of a cat 5. 2020 wasn't that active cause it had no cat 5 guys!!!!

Speaking of future Eta, it’s perhaps the last good shot 2020 has to produce a Cat 5, if it takes a Caribbean cruiser-like track like the CMC is predicting.

28+ named storms, 12 hurricanes, 5 majors, a Cat 5, and hyperactive ACE should finally get even the biggest season doubters to quiet. Once Zeta finishes up, we’ll be looking at 27/11/4 and 140 ACE. Absolutely bonkers.

Yes true, a cat 5 would definitely quiet even the biggest doubters. It's just that I already called Delta and Zeta (when the signal was still so huge in the long range GFS) potential cat 5's and both didn't manage to do that so I'm a bit reluctant to go full cat 5 mode with future Eta when it hasn't even formed yet. But you're right it definitely has the potential.

[smw1981]

Speaking of future Eta, it’s perhaps the last good shot 2020 has to produce a Cat 5, if it takes a Caribbean cruiser-like track like the CMC is predicting.

28+ named storms, 12 hurricanes, 5 majors, a Cat 5, and hyperactive ACE should finally get even the biggest season doubters to quiet. Once Zeta finishes up, we’ll be looking at 27/11/4 and 140 ACE. Absolutely bonkers.

I will literally eat crow if our cat 5 is in November

You may want to rethink that statement.. it IS 2020..

[underthwx]

Speaking of future Eta, it’s perhaps the last good shot 2020 has to produce a Cat 5, if it takes a Caribbean cruiser-like track like the CMC is predicting.

28+ named storms, 12 hurricanes, 5 majors, a Cat 5, and hyperactive ACE should finally get even the biggest season doubters to quiet. Once Zeta finishes up, we’ll be looking at 27/11/4 and 140 ACE. Absolutely bonkers.

I will literally eat crow if our cat 5 is in November

Try yer socks first.....it's all the rage I hear...

[aspen]

NOAA2 recon plane is heading out.

[hipshot]

Then we have mid-late November (Lenny/Kate/Otto anyone?) to go despite the MJO looking less favorable later on, and if we get a decent blocking pattern we could get more mid-latitude systems through the month into December as well. 2005's Delta/Epsilon/Zeta fresh in mind. Another hurricane after future Eta seems possible if that happens and 30 named storms isn't off the table entirely. If that's not one of the most jaw-dropping amazing hurricane seasons ever I don't know what people expect but it'd be hard to top this without something as absurd as a 2005 repeat.

I thought the "official" hurricane season ended on Nov. 1 or do I have that wrong?

[Steve]

There it is, hurricane #11. And that other very strong signal for the Caribbean might become #12 later. I hope this puts any discussion about 2020 not being that active, since the ACE is relatively low, to bed.

It won’t. You already know the usual suspects, so I’m not naming names. Haha

[kevin]

Then we have mid-late November (Lenny/Kate/Otto anyone?) to go despite the MJO looking less favorable later on, and if we get a decent blocking pattern we could get more mid-latitude systems through the month into December as well. 2005's Delta/Epsilon/Zeta fresh in mind. Another hurricane after future Eta seems possible if that happens and 30 named storms isn't off the table entirely. If that's not one of the most jaw-dropping amazing hurricane seasons ever I don't know what people expect but it'd be hard to top this without something as absurd as a 2005 repeat.

I thought the "official" hurricane season ended on Nov. 1 or do I have that wrong?

The Atlantic hurricane season officialy runs from the 1st of June until the 30th of November.

[Steve]

The GFS nailed another one from its long range forecast.

Yes, GFS has gotten a lot of critisism on this forum recently with its long range monsters and I have also definitely participated in that critisism after GFS suddenly dropped development after all those massive signals in earlier runs. But the formation of Zeta and also many other storms this season shows that GFS is way better this year at sniffing out long-term development than any of the other models. Yes, sometimes it's too aggressive, but I'd rather have a model that spins up a few extra hurricanes than a model that misses them completely even in the short-term.

ICON whipped it’s ass sniffing out systems most of the season. So did the CMC.

[GCANE]

Nice CDO now with Feeder Band evident.
Should see the typical pre-dusk ramp up in the next few hours.

[EquusStorm]

Last couple hours looking significantly better, might make a run for just below or approaching cat 2 at this rate

[GCANE]

Core has warmed up 1C since this morning.
Looking more compact now.
Very likely that boundary-layer inversion is broken judging by the 65 mm/hr rain rate recorded earlier by recon.

[Kazmit]

im sure that after Zeta and future Eta fling 2020 into hyperactive status they'll still find something to complain about

i'll predict that it's the lack of a cat 5. 2020 wasn't that active cause it had no cat 5 guys!!!!

Speaking of future Eta, it’s perhaps the last good shot 2020 has to produce a Cat 5, if it takes a Caribbean cruiser-like track like the CMC is predicting.

28+ named storms, 12 hurricanes, 5 majors, a Cat 5, and hyperactive ACE should finally get even the biggest season doubters to quiet. Once Zeta finishes up, we’ll be looking at 27/11/4 and 140 ACE. Absolutely bonkers.

Yes true, a cat 5 would definitely quiet even the biggest doubters. It's just that I already called Delta and Zeta (when the signal was still so huge in the long range GFS) potential cat 5's and both didn't manage to do that so I'm a bit reluctant to go full cat 5 mode with future Eta when it hasn't even formed yet. But you're right it definitely has the potential.

Getting off topic here, but I'm not sure why a cat 5 would be a good indicator of a hyperactive season. Cat 5s are only indicators of ideal conditions in the right place at the right time. 1992 had a cat 5 but it was a very inactive season.

[SconnieCane]

Josh is going for it!

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1320827983805009930

[SconnieCane]

Getting off topic here, but I'm not sure why a cat 5 would be a good indicator of a hyperactive season. Cat 5s are only indicators of ideal conditions in the right place at the right time. 1992 had a cat 5 but it was a very inactive season.

True (look at last year, it took until the end of August to get to the "D" name and it became a monster Cat. 5, and then there was another later in the year for good measure). However, it just seems ironic that the much-anticipated "extremely favorable" 2020 season with its onslaught of named storms could be the first year out of the last five to not have a single cyclone reach that elite status.

[cycloneye]

Incredible that Louisiana is on the trajectory once again of another hurricane. I lost the count of how many landfalls there.