ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricane Mike]

Still alot of dry air to the north, let's see if Gonzalo can burst tonight.

[Hammy]

Another big surge of easterlies spewing from the western side, not a good sign for intensification.

[ColdMiser123]

A substantial improvement from 6-12 hours ago with Gonzalo's CDO. Recon tomorrow afternoon should be invaluable in gathering the first in situ observations of Gonzalo's intensity.

[northjaxpro]

My little guy is doing very good early this morning. He looks about as good on IR imagery currently as he has ever! He still has an eye-like feature for sure currently, even more prominent now imo. The cyclone continues at a very low latitude, just benath 10 degrees N, which has been a very key element for it to avoid being hampered by the SAL , as what occured late Wednesday into early Thursday.

The 2 a.m. NHC advisory had sustained wind at 60 mph. I would be inclined at this hour to believe that he is a hurricane. Gonzalo for me has been the most.interesting tropical cyclone of the season thus far for yours truly!

I still think he had already attained hurricane intensity over 36 hours ago before he had a brief SAL intrusion to knock him off his stride, but he has bounced back very well as of now. He is fighting admirably!

[GCANE]

LOL - who said Gonzo was dead?

Going to start entraining high moist air from that large amplitude wave behind it.
WV showing dryline convection firing ahead of it and moisture behind it lifting into the dry air.
This has been a protected pouch from the get go.

Trouble was inflow was limited due to low Coriolis forcing and cooler OHC water.
Going to start tracking into higher OHC water in about 24 hrs.
Looks like its already feeling the effects of that.

[RT23]

Well Gonzalo has held up nicely during the night. All eyes in Barbados still on this! What are your thoughts on this making a run for a cat1 ?

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Well Gonzalo has held up nicely during the night. All eyes in Barbados still on this! What are your thoughts on this making a run for a cat1 ?

I'd be relatively surprised if we don't see it make a run at hurricane status (and maybe a bit beyond minimal/65kt) with tomorrow's dmax.

[Chris90]

A recent microwave image shows a lower level eyewall forming and this one appears to be larger than Gonzalo's previous attempt.

The next 24 hours may end up being really impressive for both Hanna and Gonzalo.

I'm starting to think the Atlantic is trying to gaslight me into thinking this is August 24th and not July 24th. Crazy.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

In Barbados we have been placed under tropical storm warning this morning. I’m wondering if we will even get any winds since the winds extend 25 miles from the center and the storm is expected to pass about 80 miles south.

[abajan]

In Barbados we have been placed under tropical storm warning this morning. I’m wondering if we will even get any winds since the winds extend 25 miles from the center and the storm is expected to pass about 80 miles south.

Even if it becomes a hurricane by the time its center passes south, we'll probably just get occasional tropical storm force gusts. I doubt we'll see sustained storm force winds. (I should add that while shifts in track can be expected, I don't believe its center will pass any closer than 40 miles.)

[Siker]

Looks like an outflow boundary just whipped west through the storm from a cell collapse on the east side.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

In Barbados we have been placed under tropical storm warning this morning. I’m wondering if we will even get any winds since the winds extend 25 miles from the center and the storm is expected to pass about 80 miles south.

Even if it becomes a hurricane by the time its center passes south, we'll probably just get occasional tropical storm force gusts. I doubt we'll see sustained storm force winds. (I should add that while shifts in track can be expected, I don't believe its center will pass any closer than 40 miles.)

Do you think the storm force winds will extend further from the system tho

[Weatherwatcher2018]

In Barbados we have been placed under tropical storm warning this morning. I’m wondering if we will even get any winds since the winds extend 25 miles from the center and the storm is expected to pass about 80 miles south.

Even if it becomes a hurricane by the time its center passes south, we'll probably just get occasional tropical storm force gusts. I doubt we'll see sustained storm force winds. (I should add that while shifts in track can be expected, I don't
believe its center will pass any closer than 40 miles.)

I was also wondering how likely rainfal totals of up to 7 inches are

[abajan]

In Barbados we have been placed under tropical storm warning this morning. I’m wondering if we will even get any winds since the winds extend 25 miles from the center and the storm is expected to pass about 80 miles south.

Even if it becomes a hurricane by the time its center passes south, we'll probably just get occasional tropical storm force gusts. I doubt we'll see sustained storm force winds. (I should add that while shifts in track can be expected, I don't believe its center will pass any closer than 40 miles.)

Do you think the storm force winds will extend further from the system tho

No. I could be wrong but In my experience tropical cyclones don't normally change in size within a short period of time (a day or two). Now, it's possible Gonzalo is actually larger than they think. We'll get a more accurate picture when recon goes in this afternoon (around 1:30 PM, I believe.)

[abajan]

In Barbados we have been placed under tropical storm warning this morning. I’m wondering if we will even get any winds since the winds extend 25 miles from the center and the storm is expected to pass about 80 miles south.

Even if it becomes a hurricane by the time its center passes south, we'll probably just get occasional tropical storm force gusts. I doubt we'll see sustained storm force winds. (I should add that while shifts in track can be expected, I don't
believe its center will pass any closer than 40 miles.)

I was also wondering how likely rainfal totals of up to 7 inches are

Unlikely, in my opinion. Three inches in some isolated hilly areas seems more realistic.

[RT23]

In Barbados we have been placed under tropical storm warning this morning. I’m wondering if we will even get any winds since the winds extend 25 miles from the center and the storm is expected to pass about 80 miles south.

Even if it becomes a hurricane by the time its center passes south, we'll probably just get occasional tropical storm force gusts. I doubt we'll see sustained storm force winds. (I should add that while shifts in track can be expected, I don't believe its center will pass any closer than 40 miles.)

Sure seems like it, he was impressive up to 5 am this am, looking a bit ragged now, convection is slowing and its not a huge system by any means, but lets see how this day passes!

[Visioen]

Tiny system, tiny islands, a hit would seem extremely unlucky to me. Which doesn't mean it can't happen.

[RT23]

Really looks to be struggling with keeping it together this morning. Lots of dry air around and a big gulp has given it indigestion

[msbee]

In Barbados we have been placed under tropical storm warning this morning. I’m wondering if we will even get any winds since the winds extend 25 miles from the center and the storm is expected to pass about 80 miles south.

Even if it becomes a hurricane by the time its center passes south, we'll probably just get occasional tropical storm force gusts. I doubt we'll see sustained storm force winds. (I should add that while shifts in track can be expected, I don't believe its center will pass any closer than 40 miles.)

that's good news, abajan!

[wxman57]

Looks like crapola to me.