ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like the cold pool has begun to cool off again with strongest convection directly over it.
Definitely a structural improvement.

[aspen]

Officially Hurricane Zeta in the 18z best track, now the 11th (official) hurricane of the year.

[canefan]

I think we see a stronger storm and a more eastward track

[Do_For_Love]

Wow. Zeta could be off to the races at this point, looks good and still has solid time until landfall. Maybe land interaction could become an issue and prevent RI?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[GCANE]

Afterburners kicked in.
65 mm/hr rain rate

[Iceresistance]

AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ZETA HAS STRENGTHENED
TO A HURRICANE

Here we go! Just like Sally!

[NDG]

This will be a good webcam to watch in Cozumel, looking west away from the strong easterly winds.

https://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam- ... park-royal

[kevin]

There it is, hurricane #11. And that other very strong signal for the Caribbean might become #12 later. I hope this puts any discussion about 2020 not being that active, since the ACE is relatively low, to bed.

[crimi481]

Looks like moving more north than west now. I also think more east track very possible. Front moving fast also

[NDG]

The GFS nailed another one from its long range forecast.

[kevin]

The GFS nailed another one from its long range forecast.

Yes, GFS has gotten a lot of critisism on this forum recently with its long range monsters and I have also definitely participated in that critisism after GFS suddenly dropped development after all those massive signals in earlier runs. But the formation of Zeta and also many other storms this season shows that GFS is way better this year at sniffing out long-term development than any of the other models. Yes, sometimes it's too aggressive, but I'd rather have a model that spins up a few extra hurricanes than a model that misses them completely even in the short-term.

[3090]

Looks like moving more north than west now. I also think more east track very possible. Front moving fast also

Looks like and actual, are vastly different. To be perfectly blunt, the NHC has nailed Zeta to a “T” thus far. Track and intensity. There were quite a few skeptics on this board, doubting Zeta would become a Hurricane before it made landfall on the Yucatan.

Get some popcorn ready to watch and not guess what it looks like.

[weeniepatrol]

There it is, hurricane #11. And that other very strong signal for the Caribbean might become #12 later. I hope this puts any discussion about 2020 not being that active, since the ACE is relatively low, to bed.

im sure that after Zeta and future Eta fling 2020 into hyperactive status they'll still find something to complain about

i'll predict that it's the lack of a cat 5. 2020 wasn't that active cause it had no cat 5 guys!!!!

[Emmett_Brown]

The GFS nailed another one from its long range forecast.

Exactly. Nailed it. GFS and GEFS see the storm in the long range, drop it, then it inevitably forms, and they have to play catch-up. It's happened repeatedly this year. Will probably happen at least one more time in 10 days or so. Zeta looking healthy.

[kevin]

The GFS nailed another one from its long range forecast.

Exactly. Nailed it. GFS and GEFS see the storm in the long range, drop it, then it inevitably forms, and they have to play catch-up. It's happened repeatedly this year. Will probably happen at least one more time in 10 days or so. Zeta looking healthy.

GFS is like me during a test when I fill in an answer, but then start to doubt it and decide to change it later. And in the end your crossed out initial answer is always the right one .

[tomatkins]

There it is, hurricane #11. And that other very strong signal for the Caribbean might become #12 later. I hope this puts any discussion about 2020 not being that active, since the ACE is relatively low, to bed.

im sure that after Zeta and future Eta fling 2020 into hyperactive status they'll still find something to complain about

i'll predict that it's the lack of a cat 5. 2020 wasn't that active cause it had no cat 5 guys!!!!

Well no yet.

[CyclonicFury]

Another hurricane the ECMWF completely missed just a few days ago.

[Dean4Storms]

981mb....that’s a crazy drop in half a day on a struggling TS.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Another hurricane the ECMWF completely missed just a few days ago.

The Euro is no longer a reliable model for forecasting TC genesis, unfortunately. A model that cannot even show a hurricane with <72 hours in advance is simply not useful. GFS had been showing a hurricane in the western Caribbean well over a week ago (even if it was biased a little too strong).

[EquusStorm]

Very impressive. Managed to overcome the tilt and bring us just one shy of the aggressive CSU forecast for the year of 12 hurricanes, which should be matched next week or so by the expected Caribbean development. That'd tie us with 1969 for second most hurricanes in a single season on all time record, behind only 2005. Extraordinarily busy season.