ATL: ETA - Models

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#841 Postby Frank2 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:58 pm

One day they'll be right. We're waaaaayyyy overdue!!!


Overdue? What'd we get in 2017, or 2005, or 1992? We are about average on landfalls or landfalls close enough to make life miserable.

P.S. As far as the models go, redevelopment is a long-shot. Over the many years I've hardly seen any landfalling system regenerate from it's former self to become anything more than rainy weather. David (1979) was one example of a strong Cat 4 restrengthening to not more than a weak Cat 2.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#842 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:59 pm

Frank2 wrote:
One day they'll be right. We're waaaaayyyy overdue!!!


Overdue? What'd we get in 2017, or 2005, or 1992? We are about average on landfalls or close enough to make life miserable.

P.S. As far as the models go, any redevelopment is a long-shot. Over the many years I've hardly seen any landfalling system regenerate from it's former self to become anything more than rainy weather.

Harvey wants a word with you
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#843 Postby Blown Away » Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:19 pm

12z Euro showed a farther S landfall, so this S drift by Eta may be in line with the Euro?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#844 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:27 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Shawee wrote:
Wampadawg wrote:
You all having been doing this for a lot longer than
Me but isn’t the fact this far out even if it is a one in a million shot the Texas would even be considered seems 2020 to me

The odds of a storm this year passing Louisiana to get to Texas should let you rest easier.


Someone here should post the odds, but odds of a Texas landfall in November would be extremely rare, even in 2020.

I’m pretty sure Texas has never seen a landfalling tropical cyclone of any type in November.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#845 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:31 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Shawee wrote:The odds of a storm this year passing Louisiana to get to Texas should let you rest easier.


Someone here should post the odds, but odds of a Texas landfall in November would be extremely rare, even in 2020.

I’m pretty sure Texas has never seen a landfalling tropical cyclone of any type in November.


Doesn't take much effort to look it up. Long time ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_T ... _(pre-1900)
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#846 Postby Blown Away » Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:35 pm

As the models move into the mid range after leaving Honduras they seem to be backing off intensity except for the mighty Euro.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#847 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:05 pm

Blown Away wrote:As the models move into the mid range after leaving Honduras they seem to be backing off intensity except for the mighty Euro.

Either that blind squirrel will find a nut or it’ll bust big time, yet again this season.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#848 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:51 pm

The 0zGFS is showing this heading for Texas in the long range
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#849 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:59 pm

The 00z GFS in a very cruel twist takes this to Lake Charles in the long range. You can't make this stuff up.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#850 Postby SoupBone » Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:28 am

tolakram wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Someone here should post the odds, but odds of a Texas landfall in November would be extremely rare, even in 2020.

I’m pretty sure Texas has never seen a landfalling tropical cyclone of any type in November.


Doesn't take much effort to look it up. Long time ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_T ... _(pre-1900)


Haha so 1527 and 1590. Wow. :lol:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#851 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:39 am

00z euro forecasting high pressure centered over the mid Atlantic in 5-6 days. It allows eta to get north enough to about the straits till it gets forced west into the gulf.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#852 Postby lando » Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:06 am

Hurricane Alexis wrote:00z euro forecasting high pressure centered over the mid Atlantic in 5-6 days. It allows eta to get north enough to about the straits till it gets forced west into the gulf.


At the end of the run, im assuming a troph comes through as euro sends the storm E toward Florida
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#853 Postby sma10 » Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:08 am

SoupBone wrote:
tolakram wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:I’m pretty sure Texas has never seen a landfalling tropical cyclone of any type in November.


Doesn't take much effort to look it up. Long time ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_T ... _(pre-1900)


Haha so 1527 and 1590. Wow. :lol:


I guess you'd say they're overdue
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#854 Postby ronjon » Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:30 am

Models starting to come into better agreement. Euro, GFS, CMC and GFS para bring a tropical cyclone (ETA or reforming its remnants) northeast through the Gulf of Honduras to somewhere in the Florida straits between Cuba and SF by Sunday. If this verifies, SFL and the keys could see some rough weather this weekend with at least some heavy rain and wind. Most models then move it off the W-NW into the GOM.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#855 Postby chris_fit » Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:50 am

Everyone's been busy in the Discussion Thread (and understandable so.)

As the models move from the long-range to the mid-range in terms of possible US impacts, honestly not much has changed in the last 2 days in terms of Track. Intensity is a big who knows, so I won't even go there right now.

Based on the Ensemble Runs over the last ~2 days (I'm simply not paying much attention to the operational runs of the CMC/EURO/GFS yet as they are all over the place) - Eta/Theta is expected to (re)develop in the NW Caribbean, meander N/NE into/around Cuba, Turn W/WNW into the GoM and eventually turn NE into anywhere from the Northeastern Gulf Coast through the Keys.

The above is based on the Ensemble Runs - I'm simply not paying much attention to the operational runs of the CMC/EURO/GFS yet. What is interesting (and unusual for this year) is that the EURO is most bullish on this in the Mid/Long range.

Below are Day 2 - Day 10 Ensemble runs (most recent)

Latest 00Z CMC ENS
Image

Latest 06Z GFS ENS
Image

Latest 00Z EURO ENS
Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#856 Postby p1nheadlarry » Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:12 am

Gonna need Levi to delete the 0z Euro
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#857 Postby SFLcane » Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:21 am

Nice post Chris!

Here are some loops I just created GEFS and Euro ensembles still have the Florida peninsula in there sights.

06z GEFS animated loop..

Image

00z EPS ensembles...

Image

06z Euro is currently loading
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#858 Postby otowntiger » Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:47 am

chris_fit wrote:Everyone's been busy in the Discussion Thread (and understandable so.)

As the models move from the long-range to the mid-range in terms of possible US impacts, honestly not much has changed in the last 2 days in terms of Track. Intensity is a big who knows, so I won't even go there right now.

Based on the Ensemble Runs over the last ~2 days (I'm simply not paying much attention to the operational runs of the CMC/EURO/GFS yet as they are all over the place) - Eta/Theta is expected to (re)develop in the NW Caribbean, meander N/NE into/around Cuba, Turn W/WNW into the GoM and eventually turn NE into anywhere from the Northeastern Gulf Coast through the Keys.

The above is based on the Ensemble Runs - I'm simply not paying much attention to the operational runs of the CMC/EURO/GFS yet. What is interesting (and unusual for this year) is that the EURO is most bullish on this in the Mid/Long range.

Below are Day 2 - Day 10 Ensemble runs (most recent)

Latest 00Z CMC ENS
https://i.imgur.com/7UcbgIU.gif

Latest 06Z GFS ENS
https://i.imgur.com/yr4o2z7.gif

Latest 00Z EURO ENS
https://i.imgur.com/oNrWZH8.gif


Great post boiling it all down in one good summary. It does seem that there is a general agreement on general track set up. I know you said, rightfully so, that intensity is a big unknown as proven again and again this season that is a part of tropical predictions that we have yet to fully grasp. But it is really no less important than track, in my opinion. They could nail the track perfectly but predict a major storm when it could very well be a sloppy blob of rain instead- or vice versa, and have failed in my opinion. With that said intensity ‘guessing’ is still worth talking about. I think the good thing is there is a very good chance. 50/50 or better that ETA could be a weak unsubstantial system by the time it finally begins to affect the CONUS. I say that because cooler SST’s in the gulf, shear from approaching fronts and land interaction all will work together against intensity once it begins to emerge from the Caribbean. Of it could thread the needle so to speak and hit that proverbial sweet spot and become something significant despite the afore mentioned hurdles, I just think odds are against that from my perspective.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#859 Postby toad strangler » Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:56 am

otowntiger wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Everyone's been busy in the Discussion Thread (and understandable so.)

As the models move from the long-range to the mid-range in terms of possible US impacts, honestly not much has changed in the last 2 days in terms of Track. Intensity is a big who knows, so I won't even go there right now.

Based on the Ensemble Runs over the last ~2 days (I'm simply not paying much attention to the operational runs of the CMC/EURO/GFS yet as they are all over the place) - Eta/Theta is expected to (re)develop in the NW Caribbean, meander N/NE into/around Cuba, Turn W/WNW into the GoM and eventually turn NE into anywhere from the Northeastern Gulf Coast through the Keys.

The above is based on the Ensemble Runs - I'm simply not paying much attention to the operational runs of the CMC/EURO/GFS yet. What is interesting (and unusual for this year) is that the EURO is most bullish on this in the Mid/Long range.

Below are Day 2 - Day 10 Ensemble runs (most recent)

Latest 00Z CMC ENS
https://i.imgur.com/7UcbgIU.gif

Latest 06Z GFS ENS
https://i.imgur.com/yr4o2z7.gif

Latest 00Z EURO ENS
https://i.imgur.com/oNrWZH8.gif


Great post boiling it all down in one good summary. It does seem that there is a general agreement on general track set up. I know you said, rightfully so, that intensity is a big unknown as proven again and again this season that is a part of tropical predictions that we have yet to fully grasp. But it is really no less important than track, in my opinion. They could nail the track perfectly but predict a major storm when it could very well be a sloppy blob of rain instead- or vice versa, and have failed in my opinion. With that said intensity ‘guessing’ is still worth talking about. I think the good thing is there is a very good chance. 50/50 or better that ETA could be a weak unsubstantial system by the time it finally begins to affect the CONUS. I say that because cooler SST’s in the gulf, shear from approaching fronts and land interaction all will work together against intensity once it begins to emerge from the Caribbean. Of it could thread the needle so to speak and hit that proverbial sweet spot and become something significant despite the afore mentioned hurdles, I just think odds are against that from my perspective.


Yup, I'm hangin my hat on climo too :wink:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#860 Postby NDG » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:48 am

06z Euro ensembles.

Image
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