Everyone's been busy in the Discussion Thread (and understandable so.)
As the models move from the long-range to the mid-range in terms of possible US impacts, honestly not much has changed in the last 2 days in terms of Track. Intensity is a big who knows, so I won't even go there right now.
Based on the Ensemble Runs over the last ~2 days (I'm simply not paying much attention to the operational runs of the CMC/EURO/GFS yet as they are all over the place) - Eta/Theta is expected to (re)develop in the NW Caribbean, meander N/NE into/around Cuba, Turn W/WNW into the GoM and eventually turn NE into anywhere from the Northeastern Gulf Coast through the Keys.
The above is based on the Ensemble Runs - I'm simply not paying much attention to the operational runs of the CMC/EURO/GFS yet. What is interesting (and unusual for this year) is that the EURO is most bullish on this in the Mid/Long range.
Below are Day 2 - Day 10 Ensemble runs (most recent)
Latest 00Z CMC ENS

Latest 06Z GFS ENS

Latest 00Z EURO ENS
