ATL: ETA - Models

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS is still weak and broad with Eta post Central America. We cannot discount it. Besides what other global models show significant redevelopment of Eta after Central America besides the Euro?

[TheStormExpert]

East shift by the GFS with a sloppy broad low as well. Looks more reasonable than the CAT 5 Euro storm which I think is not realistic:

https://i.postimg.cc/prT0KBBX/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh0-168.gif

The models are starting to push Eta farther E after emerging off Honduras to @75W and then turn around back WNW or NW. Very unusual track.

Unusual for north of 20N.

[supercane4867]

18z GFS wants to throw a November TC into Texas

[fox13weather]

18z GFS wants to throw a November TC into Texas

at 384 hours ...which literally means nothing

[Nuno]

18z GFS wants to throw a November TC into Texas

at 384 hours ...which literally means nothing

Of course, just a humorous scenario to consider given how late and unusual such a storm would be

[SFLcane]

GEFS ensembles continue active around SFL.

[SconnieCane]

18z GFS wants to throw a November TC into Texas

...and Texas was declared "safe" how many months ago because a cold front had come off the Gulf coast?

(Not saying this is a likely outcome by any means, just that nothing should ever be ruled out when it comes to the atmosphere)

[Loveweather12]

18z GFS is still weak and broad with Eta post Central America. We cannot discount it. Besides what other global models show significant redevelopment of Eta after Central America besides the Euro?

We can’t discount other model runs either. We are basically now casting for the time being.

[tolakram]

HWRF for what it's worth. Deepens all the way to landfall.

[Wampadawg]

18z GFS wants to throw a November TC into Texas

at 384 hours ...which literally means nothing

Of course, just a humorous scenario to consider given how late and unusual such a storm would be

You all having been doing this for a lot longer than
Me but isn’t the fact this far out even if it is a one in a million shot the Texas would even be considered seems 2020 to me

[gatorcane]

GEFS ensembles continue active around SFL.

https://i.postimg.cc/vHX4rCDC/45-CC9-D84-7006-463-C-9526-EA30-E95-A7807.jpg

They are always showing Florida landfall beyond 7 days. Looks like the HWRF no longer brings this back into the Caribbean and heads for the EPAC like the UKMET and half of the Euro ensembles:

[SFLcane]

18z Euro redevelops this post CA @ 90rs..

[AutoPenalti]

GEFS ensembles continue active around SFL.

https://i.postimg.cc/vHX4rCDC/45-CC9-D84-7006-463-C-9526-EA30-E95-A7807.jpg

They are always showing Florida landfall beyond 7 days. Looks like the HWRF no longer brings this back into the Caribbean and heads for the EPAC like the UKMET and half of the Euro ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/VNVfFRxZ/hwrf-ref-29-L-fh3-96.gif

Euro has been showing it going to EPAC until recently, Euro has been wrong on just about anything and everything before landfall. You don’t use the HWRF for track.

[Loveweather12]

GEFS ensembles continue active around SFL.

https://i.postimg.cc/vHX4rCDC/45-CC9-D84-7006-463-C-9526-EA30-E95-A7807.jpg

They are always showing Florida landfall beyond 7 days. Looks like the HWRF no longer brings this back into the Caribbean and heads for the EPAC like the UKMET and half of the Euro ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/VNVfFRxZ/hwrf-ref-29-L-fh3-96.gif

Euro showed it going into the EPAC for a long time now it’s on the Caribbean. I thought you were a big supporter of the Euro model

[Shawee]

at 384 hours ...which literally means nothing

Of course, just a humorous scenario to consider given how late and unusual such a storm would be

You all having been doing this for a lot longer than
Me but isn’t the fact this far out even if it is a one in a million shot the Texas would even be considered seems 2020 to me

The odds of a storm this year passing Louisiana to get to Texas should let you rest easier.

[Wampadawg]

Of course, just a humorous scenario to consider given how late and unusual such a storm would be

You all having been doing this for a lot longer than
Me but isn’t the fact this far out even if it is a one in a million shot the Texas would even be considered seems 2020 to me

The odds of a storm this year passing Louisiana to get to Texas should let you rest easier.

Yes Louisiana acted as our Big Brother this year much thanks

[TheStormExpert]

GEFS ensembles continue active around SFL.

https://i.postimg.cc/vHX4rCDC/45-CC9-D84-7006-463-C-9526-EA30-E95-A7807.jpg

Their bark is much bigger than their bite! Over the past month how many runs have the GEFS been clustered around Florida? Now the 18z HWRF moves Eta into the East Pacific like the UKMET for what its worth.

[SFLcane]

18z eps still the clustering in the nw Caribbean and South Florida.

[StormTracker]

18z eps still the clustering in the nw Caribbean and South Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/FRbXQ5LZ/0-EB94-C0-D-F8-D7-4-B4-D-AB34-E9-ECC32-C2-CE0.jpg

One day they'll be right. We're waaaaayyyy overdue!!!

[SoupBone]

Of course, just a humorous scenario to consider given how late and unusual such a storm would be

You all having been doing this for a lot longer than
Me but isn’t the fact this far out even if it is a one in a million shot the Texas would even be considered seems 2020 to me

The odds of a storm this year passing Louisiana to get to Texas should let you rest easier.

Someone here should post the odds, but odds of a Texas landfall in November would be extremely rare, even in 2020.