ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1313450966662995969




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313452067294449665

[shiny-pebble]

The warm spot on IR is becoming much mire defined and there are -80C tops wrapped around the eyewall. Maybe I just have a poor memory but I can't remember a recent hurricane looking like this. Even Laura didn't look this ominous when it explosively intensified

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[us89]

Dropsonde has a 962 mb pressure with 26 kt wind, which means it’s in the 959-960 range.

[Kazmit]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1313450966662995969

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313452067294449665

That is insane, but didn't Maria go from 85 to 165 mph (80 mph increase) in 24 hours?

[NotoSans]

VDM says a 6nm circular eye but still open to the north.

[aspen]

Gone up 70 mph operationally in 24 hours.

That’s the second fastest intensification of the year. The only storm that beats out Delta is Amphan, which went from 75 mph to 160 mph in 24 hours.

[Shell Mound]

VDM says a 6nm circular eye but still open to the north.

Based on IR imagery, isn’t some east-southeasterly mid-level shear present? The eastern quadrant still looks “squished.”

[GCANE]

Sorry if this should be in the models thread, but I want to illustrate this point.
Enthalpy flux reignites once this gets in the GoM and doesn't start to weaken until mid GoM.
It's not just about SST's but its about heat exchange and the temperature of the top of the Troposphere.
HWRF is trending for a colder temperature.
ULL to the east will setup a perfect Hadley circulation.
This is the classic Carnot heat engine.
Become one with the Vmax equation.
Much thanks P1NHEADLARRY for bringing this to light.

[USTropics]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1313450966662995969

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313452067294449665

That is insane, but didn't Maria go from 85 to 165 mph (80 mph increase) in 24 hours?

Yes, that happened in September though (September 17th). Klotzbach's tweet only was in reference to October systems.

[plasticup]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1313450966662995969

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313452067294449665

Wilma comparisons are apt and unsettling.

[Nuno]

If Delta spends 60 hours+ as a major like the NHC is forecasting, the ACE will get a massive boost getting us very close to hyperactive levels.

Hope it puts to bed the "But 2020 lacks ACE!!" perspective. This storm is going to rack up plenty, unfortunately for the Yucatan and Gulf. Very little shear ahead of it for the next 24-36 hours

[cheezyWXguy]

That tiny eye is warming on IR now, more apparent on vis as well.

[GCANE]

I know this is a debatable topic but rapidly deepening TCs increase odds of triggering earthquakes.
I have seen it many times in the Carb and a couple along the east coast.
Very close to the fault line.
Just saying.

[aspen]

Highly likely the next pass upgrades Delta to a major, since they didn’t even sample the max winds in the first pass and they were on the cusp of Cat 3 status.

[cheezyWXguy]

I know this is a debatable topic but rapidly deepening TCs increase odds of triggering earthquakes.
I have seen it many times in the Carb and a couple along the east coast.
Very close to the fault line.
Just saying.

https://i.imgur.com/D8BRhKc.png

I’ve never heard of this. Is there actually some kind of causality link here or is it more a third variable problem?

[USTropics]

Delta will likely be the first true Caribbean cruiser to reach major hurricane status and traverse through the entire Caribbean in over 10 years (Matthew is debatable but not considered a true Caribbean cruiser).

2010-2019:


This after the 2000-2010 era featured quite a few Caribbean cruisers:


Current Delta track:

[kevin]

Now that we're talking about ACE, does anyone have a link to a place where we can find the ACE of all or at least many storms? It will be interesting to compare Delta to other Caribbean cruisers like Wilma later on.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313457105005948928


When have you ever seen Levi this bullish? "Explosive intensification likely"

[aspen]

If Delta keeps up that >=2.9 mb/hr intensification rate for the next 12 hours, it’ll be in the 920s in time for the 8pm intermediate advisory.

[GCANE]

I know this is a debatable topic but rapidly deepening TCs increase odds of triggering earthquakes.
I have seen it many times in the Carb and a couple along the east coast.
Very close to the fault line.
Just saying.

https://i.imgur.com/D8BRhKc.png

I’ve never heard of this. Is there actually some kind of causality link here or is it more a third variable problem?

I think it is just rapid pressure drops.
Seen it quite often in the WPAC as well, mostly around New Zealand and NE of Okinawa.