ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

It's looking more likely that Cristobal will become a subtropical storm prior to landfall.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1268710692649152512

[MGC]

I'm starting to buy into a center reformation along the north coast of the Yucatan. Cristobal is too far inland and the surface circulation is slowly fading away, even the mid level circulation looks to be weaker also. It is also quite possible Cristobal dissipates over the Yucatan. If the cyclone does remain intact it will likely be a moderate TS along the norther gulf coast with most weather displaced to the east of landfall. Going with the GFS track but slightly west of its 18Z run, Euro is way too far west IMO.....MGC

[TheProfessor]

I'm starting to buy into a center reformation along the north coast of the Yucatan. Cristobal is too far inland and the surface circulation is slowly fading away, even the mid level circulation looks to be weaker also. It is also quite possible Cristobal dissipates over the Yucatan. If the cyclone does remain intact it will likely be a moderate TS along the norther gulf coast with most weather displaced to the east of landfall. Going with the GFS track but slightly west of its 18Z run, Euro is way too far west IMO.....MGC

If low level vorticity were weakening at a faster pace I'd agree with you, but so far it's only weakened a little bit and the northward turn has already begun. It will continue to weaken, but I don't know if it will be enough to where you could call it two distinct storms forming once it moves back over the Gulf. There's also been a nice burst of convection near the center, which could help it from dissipating at a faster rate.

[gatorcane]

Cristobal continues to behave and the forecast is probably the more confident ones we have seen in a while despite the gyre and land interaction. I am really impressed by the GFS, not so much the Euro this time around. But overall the consensus of the two is quite good. Cristobal should eventually get steered north by southerly wind flow that should develop in the next 24-48 hours across the GOM and Yucatan where it may briefly intensify in the southern GOM before weakening quite rapidly (and possibly transitioning to extra tropical) as it approaches the northern gulf coast. Dry continental air and shear await. Most of the weather will be far to the east of where the storm landfalls quite possibly as far east as Florida.

[Steve]

Cristobal continues to behave and the forecast is probably the more confident ones we have seen in a while despite the gyre and land interaction. I am really impressed by the GFS, not so much the Euro this time around. But overall the consensus of the two is quite good. Cristobal should eventually get steered north by southerly wind flow that should develop in the next 24-48 hours across the GOM and Yucatan where it may briefly intensify in the southern GOM before weakening quite rapidly (and possibly transitioning to extra tropical) as it approaches the northern gulf coast. Dry continental air and shear await. Most of the weather will be far to the east of where the storm landfalls quite possibly as far east as Florida.

Florida is going to get weather. They will 100% have issues around the state. Same goes for AL/MS and LA. Again, it won't be anything catastrophic, but low lying homes and camps will flood in the tides, some houses and cars will flood. If I had to make a guess, I'd say it's somewhere between $200-300MM storm at worst (in the USA). So yeah, it's mostly just some fun and keeping the cars from flooding here and points east. I'll be toasting Frank P who will be sitting on his palatial porch in Biloxi Sunday afternoon and evening.

[toad strangler]

Cristobal continues to behave and the forecast is probably the more confident ones we have seen in a while despite the gyre and land interaction. I am really impressed by the GFS, not so much the Euro this time around. But overall the consensus of the two is quite good. Cristobal should eventually get steered north by southerly wind flow that should develop in the next 24-48 hours across the GOM and Yucatan where it may briefly intensify in the southern GOM before weakening quite rapidly (and possibly transitioning to extra tropical) as it approaches the northern gulf coast. Dry continental air and shear await. Most of the weather will be far to the east of where the storm landfalls quite possibly as far east as Florida.

I noticed more than a couple GFS bash posts. I have no idea why people do that. Or maybe I do? Because it didn't show a solution they wanted to see. Anyway, the main players you and many of us have mentioned today appear poised to inhibit this system. Abundant dry air and some shear should keep whatever does regenerate from the remnants of Cristobal as a weak lopsided low end TS or STS.

[Aric Dunn]

Cristobal continues to behave and the forecast is probably the more confident ones we have seen in a while despite the gyre and land interaction. I am really impressed by the GFS, not so much the Euro this time around. But overall the consensus of the two is quite good. Cristobal should eventually get steered north by southerly wind flow that should develop in the next 24-48 hours across the GOM and Yucatan where it may briefly intensify in the southern GOM before weakening quite rapidly (and possibly transitioning to extra tropical) as it approaches the northern gulf coast. Dry continental air and shear await. Most of the weather will be far to the east of where the storm landfalls quite possibly as far east as Florida.

I noticed more than a couple GFS bash posts. I have no idea why people do that. Or maybe I do? Because it didn't show a solution they wanted to see. Anyway, the main players you and many of us have mentioned today appear poised to inhibit this system. Abundant dry air and some shear should keep whatever does regenerate from the remnants of Cristobal as a weak lopsided low end TS or STS.

No it is because it did terrible outside of picking up on a generalized area for development lol..

it was a mess of crap..

[Steve]

Cristobal continues to behave and the forecast is probably the more confident ones we have seen in a while despite the gyre and land interaction. I am really impressed by the GFS, not so much the Euro this time around. But overall the consensus of the two is quite good. Cristobal should eventually get steered north by southerly wind flow that should develop in the next 24-48 hours across the GOM and Yucatan where it may briefly intensify in the southern GOM before weakening quite rapidly (and possibly transitioning to extra tropical) as it approaches the northern gulf coast. Dry continental air and shear await. Most of the weather will be far to the east of where the storm landfalls quite possibly as far east as Florida.

I noticed more than a couple GFS bash posts. I have no idea why people do that. Or maybe I do? Because it didn't show a solution they wanted to see. Anyway, the main players you and many of us have mentioned today appear poised to inhibit this system. Abundant dry air and some shear should keep whatever does regenerate from the remnants of Cristobal as a weak lopsided low end TS or STS.

There's a lot of times it deserves bashing for its well known biases in the Atlantic. But other than precise tracking down in the Bay and in Mexico - which no model was going to be exact on because it's a curved landmass facing the counter-clockwise flow from like 6 o'clock backwards to 12 o'clock (south through east to north), it along with the majority of global models have been showing a tropical storm (tropical low really) near the NW or N tip of the Yucatan by tomorrow night for a while - and if not exclusively off and on - ICON, CMC, GFS and EC.

[aspen]

Convection is firing near the core instead of being more prominent around the tip of the Yucatán peninsula. Odds are increasing that Cristobal will emerge into the Gulf intact.

[Aric Dunn]

interesting well defined circ still and ESE motion.. seems it still does not want to follow the models all too much

[floridasun78]

interesting well defined circ still and ESE motion.. seems it still does not want to follow the models all too much

https://i.ibb.co/2Kr0nk5/ezgif-com-resize-4.gif

that link that radar?

[Aric Dunn]

quiet night...

but it is magically still swinging ese.. should eventually turn east then NE then North.. but how close to the NW carrib will it get.. it is already tapping much warmer water and better environment.

[Steve]

Definitely quiet. The next 24 hours are kind of what everyone's been waiting for. We knew we had 72ish hours or so of this spinning down there, but then what do we get - a sheared June storm? A legit tropical storm? A peter-out? Fun times ahead. We already have one car 4 stories up in a garage, and I'll probably go to the store in the am to stock up on whiskey for the next few days. Then it's just hang out and wait. Maybe those of us in New Orleans and east can get in some cool experiences without the fear of what a similar situation in August or September might mean.

[psyclone]

Here's to hoping for an early season "fun storm". I'm certainly enjoying the tropical downpours and break from the usual oppressive heat.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Should be an interesting June system to watch. Should have an unusually broad wind field to the East of the Center. We’ll know a lot more tomorrow at this time. There is a lot of dry air. Will probably be an ugly system, but, it looks to have a large circulation once it enters the Gulf and moves North. It’s got quite a bit of moisture..that will be the biggest issue when it reaches Louisiana. Watching.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening

Steve make sure at least one bottle is Jack

[Steve]

Evening

Steve make sure at least one bottle is Jack

Haha. The house brand is Jim Beam, but I'll grab a bottle of Jack too. I usually only drink the Jefferson and Woodford and up from there stuff when I'm at my other home in Pensacola. We're not planning on any Louis XIII level stuff, so between Jack and Jim, we'll get it done.

Cristobal is firing off some mean storms in the Pacific and also north on the Yucatan. Pretty standard for this time of day, but you can see the general direction of the way the storms are going on the Yucatan. LLC will follow that tomorrow be it from land, the Bay or the WC.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL032020

[Aric Dunn]

sure has a bunch of eastward momentum.. if the convective blob builds offshore and maintains like that... chances go up for it being pull quite a bit farther east.. or reform .. it really like the super warm NW carrib waters right now lol

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined

[MississippiWx]

It's like deja vu. Before Cristobal became a tropical depression, it had a blow-up of convection in nearly the exact same place on the Yucatan a few nights ago. This helped tighten the core and basically made it a tropical cyclone before entering the Bay of Campeche. Could this be a similar event? I'm wondering if this strong burst of convection will give it a head start again before making its splash in the water.