ATL: LAURA - Models

[caneseddy]

ICON ends NE of Puerto Rico heading west at 120

[AtlanticWind]

Ridge looks a whole lot weaker this run.

I think ridge is stronger on this run

[SFLcane]

Ridge looks a whole lot weaker this run.

Nope... ridge still there if anything a bit stronger.

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge looks a whole lot weaker this run.

Nope... ridge still there if anything a bit stronger.

You’re right, was looking at the wrong solution. Still about the same.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the 18z GFS has decided to go backwards and show a weaker vort than what it was showing on the 12z.

[supercane4867]

In short: GFS is trash.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1295480944682557440

[SouthFLTropics]

I find it truly amazing that whatever changes were made to the GFS, have taken it from spinning up tons of phantoms to having trouble spinning up anything. Yet in the pacific it has been all systems go. I'd sure love to have a discussion with someone about what has possibly caused this at some time after the season when we have the luxury of looking back.

[toad strangler]

I find it truly amazing that whatever changes were made to the GFS, have taken it from spinning up tons of phantoms to having trouble spinning up anything. Yet in the pacific it has been all systems go. I'd sure love to have a discussion with someone about what has possibly caused this at some time after the season when we have the luxury of looking back.

Wow I've certainly noticed the GFS whipping up spinners from spurious vort sources. One such location hot spot is vort energy that rolls off of the coasts of Venezuela and Columbia in the far S Caribbean.

[SouthFLTropics]

I find it truly amazing that whatever changes were made to the GFS, have taken it from spinning up tons of phantoms to having trouble spinning up anything. Yet in the pacific it has been all systems go. I'd sure love to have a discussion with someone about what has possibly caused this at some time after the season when we have the luxury of looking back.

Wow I've certainly noticed the GFS whipping up spinners from spurious vort sources. One such location hot spot is vort energy that rolls off of the coasts of Venezuela and Columbia in the far S Caribbean.

You bring up a good point. It is inclined to whip up something where there isn't and not whip up something where there is.

[eastcoastFL]

Well I hope this scenario doesn’t verify...

[toad strangler]

Well I hope this scenario doesn’t verify...


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2020081712/navgem_mslp_uv850_watl_26.png

I'd put that possibility at <1%

[galaxy401]

Well I hope this scenario doesn’t verify...

Is that supposed to be 97L and 98L both twin hurricanes threatening the US?! I don't see this verifying (this is the NAVGEM) but that will cause a media frenzy if true.

[Kazmit]

Well I hope this scenario doesn’t verify...

Is that supposed to be 97L and 98L both twin hurricanes threatening the US?! I don't see this verifying (this is the NAVGEM) but that will cause a media frenzy if true.

“Double trouble! - The Siamese hurricanes of 2020 are barreling towards the US!”

[toad strangler]

Well I hope this scenario doesn’t verify...

Is that supposed to be 97L and 98L both twin hurricanes threatening the US?! I don't see this verifying (this is the NAVGEM) but that will cause a media frenzy if true.

“Double trouble! - The Siamese hurricanes of 2020 are barreling towards the US!”

Highly doubtful. But I sense your sarcasm!

[MetroMike]

Is that supposed to be 97L and 98L both twin hurricanes threatening the US?! I don't see this verifying (this is the NAVGEM) but that will cause a media frenzy if true.

“Double trouble! - The Siamese hurricanes of 2020 are barreling towards the US!”

Highly doubtful. But I sense your sarcasm!

This is 2020. It is possible given the factors out there and built up heat energy along with the MJO in the basin.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think the Euro solution is going to pan out, because I don't think that it's going to develop as fast as the EURO wants to develop it, thus a more west movement

[SFLcane]

18z late intensity guidance is much weaker.

[ConvergenceZone]

18z late intensity guidance is much weaker.

Yea, I knew the EURO was too bullish, thus taking it more north than west

[eastcoastFL]

I wonder why the intensity guidance for the most part dips around 132hrs and then starts climbing again? Land interaction ?

[ConvergenceZone]

18z late intensity guidance is much weaker.

I still think it will become a tropical storm. Maybe not a hurricane if the weakening trends continue, but before all is said and done, I bet we will still get a tropical storm out of it...