EPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

[SouthDadeFish]

This storm is about to explode. With all due respect, the 24-h forecast of 75 kt is way too conservative in my opinion. Get your popcorn ready...

[DorkyMcDorkface]

This should be a fun one. Will it top Douglas for the EPAC crown? With extremely high RI probabilities (according to SHIPS) it definitely has a chance.

[Kingarabian]

I echo that. Never seen an exclamation mark in a discussion before.
Much better IR presentation:


Looks like all systems go.

[Yellow Evan]

I’d like to see colder cloud tops before going full gunho but a 60/day RI would not surprise me at some point. This has the highest ceiling of any EPAC hurricane since Willa, if not Patricia. Dry air intrusions, which are hard to predict but frequent this season, could hold this back some on the flip side. Median scenario is probably approximately 125 knots with Genevieve maybe a little lower.

[EquusStorm]

11pm discussion is great. Wow this is going to be a fascinating one to watch. Too early to call storm of the year but it'll probably be in the running for sure.

[psyclone]

What a remarkable system. It's always amazing to watch what is almost certain to be a high end system take off.

[aspen]

I’d like to see colder cloud tops before going full gunho but a 60/day RI would not surprise me at some point. This has the highest ceiling of any EPAC hurricane since Willa, if not Patricia. Dry air intrusions, which are hard to predict but frequent this season, could hold this back some on the flip side. Median scenario is probably approximately 125 knots with Genevieve maybe a little lower.

Isn’t the peak of diurnal max a couple of hours before sunrise? If so, it’ll probably be a little bit before we see colder (<-80 C) hot towers firing.

[Yellow Evan]

I’d like to see colder cloud tops before going full gunho but a 60/day RI would not surprise me at some point. This has the highest ceiling of any EPAC hurricane since Willa, if not Patricia. Dry air intrusions, which are hard to predict but frequent this season, could hold this back some on the flip side. Median scenario is probably approximately 125 knots with Genevieve maybe a little lower.

Isn’t the peak of diurnal max a couple of hours before sunrise? If so, it’ll probably be a little bit before we see colder (<-80 C) hot towers firing.

Yes but I’ve never given Dmax/Dmin that much stock to begin with.

[Astromanía]

Is it definite that will stay offshore?

[Homie J]

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Is it definite that will stay offshore?

It's fairly certain that it will stay off the mexican coast line.

[Kingarabian]

I’d like to see colder cloud tops before going full gunho but a 60/day RI would not surprise me at some point. This has the highest ceiling of any EPAC hurricane since Willa, if not Patricia. Dry air intrusions, which are hard to predict but frequent this season, could hold this back some on the flip side. Median scenario is probably approximately 125 knots with Genevieve maybe a little lower.

I'm not sure this has a ceiling similar to Willa much less Patricia. Patricia had insane OHC from the Super El Nino and trough interaction.
Patricia at this stage:


Genevieve:


I believe Willa had colder tops as well.

[Yellow Evan]

Is it definite that will stay offshore?

Yes at least off the mainland though showers and rough seas are likely especially if this gets as powerful as most think it will.

Knowing model tendencies the Baja California Peninsula could be somewhat in play, however.

[Monsoonjr99]

New peak up to cat 4.

snip

This is the first time I’ve seen anyone use an exclamation point in a Tropical Weather Discussion. Stewart sure seems excited about Genevieve.

I imagine the forecasters are expecting most of 2020's big RI events to be in the Atlantic, likely threatening to land, and are excited about this one being a fishy EPac system instead. Grab your popcorn and enjoy the show!

[Yellow Evan]

I’d like to see colder cloud tops before going full gunho but a 60/day RI would not surprise me at some point. This has the highest ceiling of any EPAC hurricane since Willa, if not Patricia. Dry air intrusions, which are hard to predict but frequent this season, could hold this back some on the flip side. Median scenario is probably approximately 125 knots with Genevieve maybe a little lower.

I'm not sure this has a ceiling similar to Willa much less Patricia. Patricia had insane OHC from the Super El Nino and trough interaction.
Patricia at this stage:
https://i.imgur.com/aA7DBiM.jpg

Genevieve:
https://i.imgur.com/rvn0XC0.gif

I believe Willa had colder tops as well.

Willa's actually looks pretty similar at this point. And I said since Patricia, not counting Patricia.

[1900hurricane]

Tropopause/convection depth doesn't support a ceiling as high as something extreme like Patricia, but microwave structures do compare favorably at this point in development. Overall, this might be the best TC environment I've seen since Hagibis last year.

[bob rulz]

It will be nice to watch something that's not a sheared mess for once. And something that's not threatening land to boot.

[CrazyC83]

I think Genevieve, by this time tomorrow, could easily be a major hurricane...and maybe a category 5 hurricane by late Tuesday. I think its ceiling is probably near the August record in the EPAC (I think that's 150 kt?).

Patricia is probably not a good comparison, since it had a setup that you just don't normally see in the Western Hemisphere - I'd want to see 32C SST's and steeper lapse rates. Certainly not in August would you expect something that would fire -90C to -100C cloud tops across the entire CDO. From that formative stage image alone you knew Patricia would be something special and extraordinary.

[Astromanía]

Oh no! A Major hurricane forecasted over revillagigedo islands, impossible!

[Kingarabian]

17/0530 UTC 12.6N 100.8W T3.5/3.5 GENEVIEVE -- East Pacific

ADT also 3.5 but Raws are 4.0. Constraints holding it back.

[Kingarabian]

Great microwave structure (this pass is 4 hours old).


Bruh. Crazy feeder band.

I think Genevieve, by this time tomorrow, could easily be a major hurricane...and maybe a category 5 hurricane by late Tuesday. I think its ceiling is probably near the August record in the EPAC (I think that's 150 kt?).

Patricia is probably not a good comparison, since it had a setup that you just don't normally see in the Western Hemisphere - I'd want to see 32C SST's and steeper lapse rates. Certainly not in August would you expect something that would fire -90C to -100C cloud tops across the entire CDO. From that formative stage image alone you knew Patricia would be something special and extraordinary.

Agreed. I think this system is setting itself up nicely to be the strongest system of the season.

Willa's actually looks pretty similar at this point. And I said since Patricia, not counting Patricia.

Yeah it certainly does now.