ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[HurricaneFrances04]

SHIPS joins the EURO in being less bullish

* INVEST AL922020 07/25/20 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 29 36 43 49 55 61 66 69 70 71 74 74
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 29 36 43 49 55 61 66 69 70 71 74 74
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 29 31 32 34 34 34 33 32
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 12 14 13 11 14 6 4 5 3 13 14 23 24 28 23 23
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 8 9 6 -1 2 5 5 3 0 -3 0 -2 -1 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 57 52 56 65 67 79 129 207 258 246 271 272 251 256 247 236 233
SST (C) 27.6 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.9 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.8 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 133 137 137 137 133 136 131 125 125 122 125 134 138 140 147 150 151
ADJ. POT. INT. 133 137 137 137 133 136 131 125 125 120 125 134 138 139 144 144 145
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10
700-500 MB RH 69 71 71 68 66 59 58 57 55 49 47 44 43 46 46 50 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 66 62 60 66 67 54 32 26 43 49 46 31 27 29 31 20 4
200 MB DIV 28 50 60 73 55 18 15 -31 -22 -4 7 20 19 25 14 8 -2
700-850 TADV -10 -13 -15 -12 -5 -7 -7 -11 -6 -7 2 1 6 -3 0 1 0
LAND (KM) 833 966 1090 1225 1380 1695 1816 1647 1411 1243 1117 1076 814 708 418 138 133
LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 12.1 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.0 13.3 13.4 13.9 14.4 15.2 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 24.4 25.8 27.2 28.6 30.1 33.1 36.2 39.5 42.6 45.7 48.8 52.1 55.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 15 16 15 16 15 16 16 17 16 15 13 13
HEAT CONTENT 12 13 13 13 10 9 13 6 5 6 8 19 26 34 28 51 50

[SFLcane]

06z GFS ensembles..Stronger

[SFLcane]

Another look at the GFS ensembles.

[Shell Mound]

06z GFS ensembles..Stronger

https://iili.io/dIQ0lI.gif

Interestingly, as of 06Z virtually all of the strongest GEFS ensemble members take 92L/Isaias into South/Central Florida. (The weaker members either head toward the Carolinas or enter the Caribbean.) These members suggest a track over or near Puerto Rico that only clips the northern side of the Dominican Republic. Notably, the northern portion of the Dominican Republic is relatively flat, hence less weakening due to interaction with land. So the fact that those GEFS members which deepen 92L/Isaias fastest also strongly favour a track from PR to South/Central FL is disconcerting.

[northjaxpro]

06z GFS ensembles..Stronger

https://iili.io/dIQ0lI.gif

Interestingly, as of 06Z virtually all of the strongest GEFS ensemble members take 92L/Isaias into South/Central Florida. (The weaker members either head toward the Carolinas or enter the Caribbean.) These members suggest a track over or near Puerto Rico that only clips the northern side of the Dominican Republic. Notably, the northern portion of the Dominican Republic is relatively flat, hence less weakening due to interaction with land. So the fact that those GEFS members which deepen 92L/Isaias fastest also strongly favour a track from PR to South/Central FL is disconcerting.

Yes, if this trend continues, it is very disconcerting . This system is lookiing more and more to be a very major threat to those areas in Florida, along with the Bahamas and along the Southeast U.S. coast.

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS similar to some EPS members.

https://iili.io/dIsMgt.gif

I can’t be the only one getting Dorian vibes from that track. Starts as a low rider in the MDR, pulls north at the Lesser Antilles, passes through the Greater Antilles, and heads into the Bahamas.

Definitely expect Dorian went more due north of Puerto Rico before heading more due west towards The Abacos and Grand Bahama.

[SFLcane]

Ukmet...00z

[Ivanhater]

Quite a few ensembles and operational Euro bring this into the Gulf. Still way too far out

[AutoPenalti]

It’s 9 days out but it’s creeping me out that guidance is in such agreement past 5 days...

There’s still some members bringing this into the gulf.

[toad strangler]

Did the 00z Euro cancel the season?

[SootyTern]

Those 06Z GFS ensembles seem very clustered over PR-Bahamas through Aug 2

[HurricaneFrances04]

Speed may be a factor. EURO is faster and weaker, GFS and CMC are slower and stronger

[ronjon]

Difference between Euro and GFS/CMC is obviously the strength of the system but also Euro has more 500 mb ridging off the SE coast and midlevel low pressure centered further west in Tx-La rather than further east per GFS. It's also 10 days out...alot will change.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2020072500&fh=240

[Blown Away]

Quite a few ensembles and operational Euro bring this into the Gulf. Still way too far out

Yeah, it appears this will be the classic if 92L is weaker/shallower the farther west it will go. Typically if 92L stays a wave into the E Caribbean it likely increases the chances of a GOMER. JMHO

[jlauderdal]

Difference between Euro and GFS/CMC is obviously the strength of the system but also Euro has more 500 mb ridging off the SE coast and midlevel low pressure centered further west in Tx-La rather than further east per GFS. It's also 10 days out...alot will change.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2020072500&fh=240

we usually don't see the gfs and euro this far out seeing things this similar, couple of days ago the euro didn't have that much ridging in place an in fact had a significant break in the ridge providing a healthy path OTS, that has changed significantly. Will have to see how things develop upstream middle of next week to see if we can get some roughing in place..if im in the windward and leewards, PR, Dr and cooba, im starting the Genny and re-stocking, the modeling is on board with a significant system making it across

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1287037271678623745

[typhoonty]

06z GFS ensembles..Stronger

https://iili.io/dIQ0lI.gif

Interestingly, as of 06Z virtually all of the strongest GEFS ensemble members take 92L/Isaias into South/Central Florida. (The weaker members either head toward the Carolinas or enter the Caribbean.) These members suggest a track over or near Puerto Rico that only clips the northern side of the Dominican Republic. Notably, the northern portion of the Dominican Republic is relatively flat, hence less weakening due to interaction with land. So the fact that those GEFS members which deepen 92L/Isaias fastest also strongly favour a track from PR to South/Central FL is disconcerting.

Wasn't it you that said that Florida was "off the hook" for this season last week?

[toad strangler]

06z GFS ensembles..Stronger

https://iili.io/dIQ0lI.gif

Interestingly, as of 06Z virtually all of the strongest GEFS ensemble members take 92L/Isaias into South/Central Florida. (The weaker members either head toward the Carolinas or enter the Caribbean.) These members suggest a track over or near Puerto Rico that only clips the northern side of the Dominican Republic. Notably, the northern portion of the Dominican Republic is relatively flat, hence less weakening due to interaction with land. So the fact that those GEFS members which deepen 92L/Isaias fastest also strongly favour a track from PR to South/Central FL is disconcerting.

Wasn't it you that said that Florida was "off the hook" for this season last week?

The moundster has said it several times at varying intervals. He vacillates between FL is safe and Fl is doomed. I lost count.

12z GFS showing modest development again through 84 hours

[HurricaneFrances04]

12z GFS with a shift to the north. 0Z Euro is an outlier.

[toad strangler]

12z Goofus coming in further N and a bit stronger than the last couple runs.