ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneEnzo]

Definitely getting its act together as time goes by. I'm thinking pretty high chance of something classifiable tomorrow at this rate. Very small chance of it happening this evening/tonight. I'm not anticipating that but the way this season is going who knows? Has there ever been 8 named storms before August 1st? I'm guessing not since we are beating 05s pace by a few days.

[dantonlsu]

I believe recon may find a TD when they go out today.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely getting its act together as time goes by. I'm thinking pretty high chance of something classifiable tomorrow at this rate. Very small chance of it happening this evening/tonight. I'm not anticipating that but the way this season is going who knows? Has there ever been 8 named storms before August 1st? I'm guessing not since we are beating 05s pace by a couple of weeks.

I would wager at 2pm the chances go up to 80 percent.. Then recon finds Fay or very close to Fay.

[dantonlsu]

Definitely getting its act together as time goes by. I'm thinking pretty high chance of something classifiable tomorrow at this rate. Very small chance of it happening this evening/tonight. I'm not anticipating that but the way this season is going who knows? Has there ever been 8 named storms before August 1st? I'm guessing not since we are beating 05s pace by a couple of weeks.

I would wager at 2pm the chances go up to 80 percent.. Then recon finds Fay or very close to Fay.

Would have said that's a bold statement yesterday, but with the looks of it today, you may be correct.

[Ivanhater]

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[BYG Jacob]

Definitely getting its act together as time goes by. I'm thinking pretty high chance of something classifiable tomorrow at this rate. Very small chance of it happening this evening/tonight. I'm not anticipating that but the way this season is going who knows? Has there ever been 8 named storms before August 1st? I'm guessing not since we are beating 05s pace by a couple of weeks.

I would wager at 2pm the chances go up to 80 percent.. Then recon finds Fay or very close to Fay.

*Whispers* We're on Hanna now *whispers*

[HurricaneBrain]

Aric I think you need to take a nap after pulling that all nighter

Definitely getting its act together as time goes by. I'm thinking pretty high chance of something classifiable tomorrow at this rate. Very small chance of it happening this evening/tonight. I'm not anticipating that but the way this season is going who knows? Has there ever been 8 named storms before August 1st? I'm guessing not since we are beating 05s pace by a couple of weeks.

I would wager at 2pm the chances go up to 80 percent.. Then recon finds Fay or very close to Fay.

[Ivanhater]

Yes, Fay has come and gone. We are moving that fast

[HurricaneEnzo]

Definitely getting its act together as time goes by. I'm thinking pretty high chance of something classifiable tomorrow at this rate. Very small chance of it happening this evening/tonight. I'm not anticipating that but the way this season is going who knows? Has there ever been 8 named storms before August 1st? I'm guessing not since we are beating 05s pace by a couple of weeks.

I would wager at 2pm the chances go up to 80 percent.. Then recon finds Fay or very close to Fay.

I'm not counting it out at this point lol. Just crazy. Maybe none of the storms we have had have been particularly strong or long lasting but if we get 8 named systems before Aug 1st I think that says it all. The state of the Atlantic has been this conducive thus far and conventional wisdom tells us the conditions are only going to get significantly more favorable as we approach peak season. I think the rest of the season is going gangbusters and 2020 will go down as a top 5 season in a lot of different statistics.

[northjaxpro]

I believe recon may find a TD when they go out today.

91L is gradually getting its act together. It looks to be trying to coalesce a better defined low level circulation late this morning. It is definitely entering a more friendlier upper level environment and for me, the only potential detriment going forward would be mid level dry air to its northwest.

However, it has ample time to take advantage of those bath water ssts of the Central and later NW GOM to really develop. A chance it could get upgraded to TD by this evening, depending upon what Recon finds in there. I think tomorrow will really be the day that this system could really get itself hoing as its treks west toward the South Texas Coast.

[HurricaneBrain]

Compare this to the frame 2.5 hours ago. No doubt this is getting its act together.

.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200722/a9ace256c904d8ef8fdf598f430ff1dc.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200722/d646844225cb3bb1fcf24718941cbfc2.jpg

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[Cpv17]

This storm reminds me of Harvey just by the models being all over the place. All it took was one good night for Harvey and he blew up quickly. I dont see any shear or anything that would stop this storm but i am not a meteorologist. It does look like its concentrating on convection near the center better than yesterday, but the models dont know what to do...Im watching carefully from the central texas coast

The Victoria area could see some flooding from this. Some of the models have you guys in the jackpot.

[Aric Dunn]

I believe recon may find a TD when they go out today.

91L is gradually getting its act together. It looks to be trying to coalesce a better defined low level circulation late this morning. It is definitely entering a more friendlier upper level environment and for me, the only potential detriment going forward would be mid level dry air to its northwest.

However, it has ample time to take advantage of those bath water ssts of the Central and later NW GOM to really develop. A chance it could get upgraded to TD by this evening, depending upon what Recon finds in there. I think tomorrow will really be the day that this system could really get itself hoing as its treks west toward the South Texas Coast.

Looks like Wxman57 is going to have to update his forecast and tell his customers a TC is coming..

[northjaxpro]

Compare this to the frame 2.5 hours ago. No doubt this is getting its act together.

.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200722/a9ace256c904d8ef8fdf598f430ff1dc.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200722/d646844225cb3bb1fcf24718941cbfc2.jpg

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Yes. Deep convective tops now firing. May be seeing the beginning of a quickly developing cyclone!

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1285937810185375745

[abk_0710]

What can Louisiana (NOLA) expect from this system if it does develop? TIA

[dantonlsu]

https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1285937810185375745?s=20

Here we geaux!

[wxman57]

I believe recon may find a TD when they go out today.

91L is gradually getting its act together. It looks to be trying to coalesce a better defined low level circulation late this morning. It is definitely entering a more friendlier upper level environment and for me, the only potential detriment going forward would be mid level dry air to its northwest.

However, it has ample time to take advantage of those bath water ssts of the Central and later NW GOM to really develop. A chance it could get upgraded to TD by this evening, depending upon what Recon finds in there. I think tomorrow will really be the day that this system could really get itself hoing as its treks west toward the South Texas Coast.

Looks like Wxman57 is going to have to update his forecast and tell his customers a TC is coming..

Our track forecasts yesterday had a TS reaching Texas Friday afternoon. However, I don't think it'll be much different from the disturbance that moved across the NW Gulf late last week. Just a rain event, with possibly some TS wind offshore. Not much out there now. Winds 10-15 kts with some evidence of a broad, weak low in the obs. By the way, I gave it a 70-80% chance of development 3-4 days ago. This is no surprise.

[canetracker]

What can Louisiana (NOLA) expect from this system if it does develop? TIA

According to local weathermen, a lot of off and on rain for the next few days.

[Aric Dunn]

I mean just says it all..

I say TS by the time recon gets there.. we already had near TS winds out there yesterday and overnight..