ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical

[northjaxpro]

The 18Z GFS has 90L on the threshold of becoming a hurricane off shore of the North Carolina Coast by 18Z Monday afternoon at 991 mb.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Can anyone provide their knowledge regarding the conmplex of storms with what I would call a Bo Eco or turning down south of the main COC.

[Dean4Storms]

The 18Z GFS has 90L on the threshold of becoming a hurricane off shore of the North Carolina Coast by 18Z Monday afternoon at 991 mb.

Would have to be a Sub-Tropical system, no way the waters off NC would support a purely warm core system. Not saying it couldn't happen but doubt it's purely tropical.

[TheStormExpert]

The 18Z GFS has 90L on the threshold of becoming a hurricane off shore of the North Carolina Coast by 18Z Monday afternoon at 991 mb.

Yeah I doubt they want to see Arthur again so soon after 2014.

[Aric Dunn]

The 18Z GFS has 90L on the threshold of becoming a hurricane off shore of the North Carolina Coast by 18Z Monday afternoon at 991 mb.

Would have to be a Sub-Tropical system, no way the waters off NC would support a purely warm core system. Not saying it couldn't happen but doubt it's purely tropical.

as long as it stays over the gulfstream its fine.

[northjaxpro]

The 18Z GFS has 90L on the threshold of becoming a hurricane off shore of the North Carolina Coast by 18Z Monday afternoon at 991 mb.

Would have to be a Sub-Tropical system, no way the waters off NC would support a purely warm core system. Not saying it couldn't happen but doubt it's purely tropical.

Yeah, it could be sub tropical, but remember Dean we had virtually a non existent winter season, and even now in mid-May, those sea surface temps around the Bahamas are running warmer than average and I am counting on this factor in possibly helping it to acquire tropical characteristics , but possibly reaching hurricane status , especially as it traverses the Gulf Stream in the next couple of days.

[Kazmit]

There hasn't been a May hurricane since Alma of 1970. Would be an impressive start to the season if Arthur could pull it off.

[TheStormExpert]

Levi Cowan just posted his first video of the season on Tropical Tidbits.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[SFLcane]

Not very impressive at all tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

18z Euro about 75 miles closer to the coast out to 48 hours. It sure wants to hang around for a while this run.

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas.

A trough of low pressure located over the Straits of Florida
continues to produce disorganized shower activity and gusty winds
across the Florida Keys, portions of extreme south Florida, and the
northwestern Bahamas. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and it will likely become a tropical or subtropical storm
by late Friday or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern
Bahamas. Later in the weekend and early next week, the system is
expected to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic.

1. Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring
heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast
Florida and the Bahamas through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force
wind gusts are also possible across portions of the Florida Keys,
southeast Florida, and the Bahamas during the next day or two.
In addition, hazardous marine conditions are expected along
the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas where Gale Warnings are
in effect. See products from your local weather office and High
Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow,
if necessary. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Friday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[SFLcane]

18z Euro about 75 miles closer to the coast out to 48 hours. It sure wants to hang around for a while this run.

Please post pics.

[jlauderdal]

18z Euro about 75 miles closer to the coast out to 48 hours. It sure wants to hang around for a while this run.

Euro has been much slower than the gfs for the last few days..model wars are back

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

We have a Invest 90L - Models thread.

[Aric Dunn]

Current..

[SFLcane]

Current..

https://i.ibb.co/MfWHQHK/Capture.png

Still down there...hasn’t moved much all day.

[Aric Dunn]

not that this was not already obvious.. but meso analysis overlay.

[gatorcane]

Amazing how the rain is staying all offshore mainland South Florida. It just seems to poof as it approaches the coastline.

[cycloneye]

Yes Adrian, still down there. 00z Best Track.

Location: 23.9°N 81.2°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1013 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1014 mb
Radius of Circulation: 90 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms.