BoB: AMPHAN - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Have no idea why the JTWC is only showing 85 knots. It’s CDO screams upper end Category 5 and the globals continue to hint at such.

[Abdullah]

https://i.postimg.cc/BZ4fnNzh/himawari8-wv-01-B.gif

That looks like a mid-range Tropical Storm, or even on the high end.

[Yellow Evan]

https://i.postimg.cc/BZ4fnNzh/himawari8-wv-01-B.gif

That looks like a mid-range Tropical Storm, or even on the high end.

ASCAT shows 45 knots so probably 50 knots. It's actual presentation is that of, without microwave, something I'd suspect would be on the brink of becoming a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 MAY 2020 Time : 164500 UTC
Lat : 10:44:50 N Lon : 85:59:53 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 993.1mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.3 4.0

Center Temp : -86.8C Cloud Region Temp : -86.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

[aspen]

Have no idea why the JTWC is only showing 85 knots. It’s CDO screams upper end Category 5 and the globals continue to hint at such.

It’s the JTWC tracking something in the NIO, what else would you expect? I’m betting it becomes a Cat 5 but they only say it’s 130-135 kt.

[Shell Mound]

UKMET killing 5 or 6 digit figures of people in their runs I see.

This will probably end up killing just that amount of people, based on the synoptic/thermodynamic environment, topography, bathymetry, and population density.

[Abdullah]

Have no idea why the JTWC is only showing 85 knots. It’s CDO screams upper end Category 5 and the globals continue to hint at such.

It’s the JTWC tracking something in the NIO, what else would you expect? I’m betting it becomes a Cat 5 but they only say it’s 130-135 kt.

Why do we use, or even care about the JTWC's unofficial forecasts and not the IMD's official forecasts?

[Yellow Evan]

Have no idea why the JTWC is only showing 85 knots. It’s CDO screams upper end Category 5 and the globals continue to hint at such.

It’s the JTWC tracking something in the NIO, what else would you expect? I’m betting it becomes a Cat 5 but they only say it’s 130-135 kt.

Why do we use, or even care about the JTWC's unofficial forecasts and not the IMD's official forecasts?

Neither agency has a good reputation for accuracy on here if I’m being frank though I find IMD’s poor Dvorak analysis and historical reluctance to classify what in my view are clear tropical cyclones worse.

[Yellow Evan]

TPIO10 PGTW 161826

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (E OF INDIA)

B. 16/1745Z

C. 10.91N

D. 86.00E

E. FIVE/GOES-IO

F. T2.5/2.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING DT OF 2.5.PT AGREES. MET 2.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DARLOW

[Yellow Evan]

T3.5.

[Highteeld]

https://i.imgur.com/BdkjFUU.gif

T3.5.

That looks stronger than when i last checked 3 hours ago for sure

[aspen]

It’s the JTWC tracking something in the NIO, what else would you expect? I’m betting it becomes a Cat 5 but they only say it’s 130-135 kt.

Why do we use, or even care about the JTWC's unofficial forecasts and not the IMD's official forecasts?

Neither agency has a good reputation for accuracy on here if I’m being frank though I find IMD’s poor Dvorak analysis and historical reluctance to classify what in my view are clear tropical cyclones worse.

The sheer incompetence I’ve seen with both the IMD and the JTWC with certain storms — Hagibis, Bualoi, Halong, Kyarr, and 07A to name a few — really makes me wonder if they’re just being lazy or actually trying to be terrible. It baffles me how official agencies can let something like 07A slide or do horrendous Dvorak analyses that people on this forum can do way better.

Not to say the JTWC doesn’t do stuff right; they did a mostly good job with Vongfong and Harold.

[FireRat]

Based on the environment, water temps , depth of the warm waters and the fact this could pass thru virtually untapped waters, this could be a catastrophe indeed. One more thing to note is that the storm is about 3 to 4 days away (5/20/2020) from landfall, and this puts it in a peculiar position and time (3 days before landfall) in which many past storms, in all basins, were at before they struck land at peak intensity. Could this also be the case with Amphan? Hope not, but the fact models keep blowing this thing up is a very ominous thing indeed. I hope everyone in this future monster's path are taking precautions early.

[Yellow Evan]

Why do we use, or even care about the JTWC's unofficial forecasts and not the IMD's official forecasts?

Neither agency has a good reputation for accuracy on here if I’m being frank though I find IMD’s poor Dvorak analysis and historical reluctance to classify what in my view are clear tropical cyclones worse.

The sheer incompetence I’ve seen with both the IMD and the JTWC with certain storms — Hagibis, Bualoi, Halong, Kyarr, and 07A to name a few — really makes me wonder if they’re just being lazy or actually trying to be terrible. It baffles me how official agencies can let something like 07A slide or do horrendous Dvorak analyses that people on this forum can do way better.

Not to say the JTWC doesn’t do stuff right; they did a mostly good job with Vongfong and Harold.

I've long suspected that they are just new and didn't grow up doing Dvorak like many of this forum have.

[BYG Jacob]

UKMET killing 5 or 6 digit figures of people in their runs I see.

This will probably end up killing just that amount of people, based on the synoptic/thermodynamic environment, topography, bathymetry, and population density.

The Ganges delta is just about the worst landfall spot for an intense storm to make.

[aspen]

Microwave pass from 15z shows an incomplete tiny eyewall: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 161522.gif

[1900hurricane]

https://i.postimg.cc/BZ4fnNzh/himawari8-wv-01-B.gif

That looks like a mid-range Tropical Storm, or even on the high end.

ASCAT shows 45 knots so probably 50 knots. It's actual presentation is that of, without microwave, something I'd suspect would be on the brink of becoming a hurricane.

https://i.imgur.com/LxI5qLi.jpg

Chou, Wu, & Lin actually suggest that the ASCAT low bias is even higher at that level. When cross-compared with dropsonde data, a 23 m/s (45 kt) ASCAT vector actually best correlates to a 30 m/s (58 kt) intensity.

[Abdullah]

Why do we use, or even care about the JTWC's unofficial forecasts and not the IMD's official forecasts?

Neither agency has a good reputation for accuracy on here if I’m being frank though I find IMD’s poor Dvorak analysis and historical reluctance to classify what in my view are clear tropical cyclones worse.

The sheer incompetence I’ve seen with both the IMD and the JTWC with certain storms — Hagibis, Bualoi, Halong, Kyarr, and 07A to name a few — really makes me wonder if they’re just being lazy or actually trying to be terrible. It baffles me how official agencies can let something like 07A slide or do horrendous Dvorak analyses that people on this forum can do way better.

Not to say the JTWC doesn’t do stuff right; they did a mostly good job with Vongfong and Harold.

I don't think the JTWC is bad, but what started the JTWC making forecasts for the South Asia region too? Why don't the agencies stay in their respective regions?

[Yellow Evan]

A good reminder to not take the GFS pressures literally and that inner core dynamics are likely to be the driving force in terms of intensity at its peak.

[Yellow Evan]

Neither agency has a good reputation for accuracy on here if I’m being frank though I find IMD’s poor Dvorak analysis and historical reluctance to classify what in my view are clear tropical cyclones worse.

The sheer incompetence I’ve seen with both the IMD and the JTWC with certain storms — Hagibis, Bualoi, Halong, Kyarr, and 07A to name a few — really makes me wonder if they’re just being lazy or actually trying to be terrible. It baffles me how official agencies can let something like 07A slide or do horrendous Dvorak analyses that people on this forum can do way better.

Not to say the JTWC doesn’t do stuff right; they did a mostly good job with Vongfong and Harold.

I don't think the JTWC is bad, but what started the JTWC making forecasts for the South Asia region too? Why don't the agencies stay in their respective regions?

US has a military presence around the world, not just in the western Pacific so there "home region" is not just the western Pacific.