ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cfisher]

There will be catastrophic damage in Lake Charles if the center passes to the west.

[HurricaneEdouard]

Looks like we'll have to wait till the post to see if Laura was a cat 5. They better not up it to only 155 in the post.

Another Jose 2017

Don't remind me, Jose pisses me off the most. I think they kept it at 155 for a whole day.

Jose should have definitely been upgraded to a Category 5 in post-analysis; I was shocked it wasn't, as the Dvorak data was there and I assumed the NHC played it conservative just to not distract everyone from the storm that actually mattered (considering Jose was a fish-spinner). Not only would it have made 2017 the only year with three Category 5 hurricanes (2005 had four after Emily was upgraded in post, 1961 lost one when Carla was downgraded), but it would have made it the only time there have been two simultaneous Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic (like Ivan and Joan in the Pacific!).

[wx98]

Houston/Galveston not even getting any rain at all from Laura. I’m sure Houston could do without rain from a tropical system.

[AutoPenalti]

Jeff’s livestream went down.

[arizona_sooner]

Wow my first job after college was in Lake Charles. Two of my children were born there. I hope the city survives the storm!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Eye appears to be ~5 miles from the coastline. Cameron is about to get the worst.

[wx98]

Coming onshore now. Cameron is in the eye.

[sweetpea]

Jeff’s livestream went down.

Reed Timmer FB is still up

[TTARider]

]Eye looks to be onshore/landfall, right on Cameron..

[sweetpea]

Jeff’s livestream went down.

He is back up, hit refresh and a new link pops up

[cfisher]

 https://twitter.com/rqhart/status/1298847729892888576

[HurricaneEdouard]

Looks like we'll have to wait till the post to see if Laura was a cat 5. They better not up it to only 155 in the post.

That's my honest assessment of the current intensity. There's arguments to be made for 130 knots, 135 knots or 140 knots, but a blend of data most supports 135 knots IMO; the 142 knot dropsonde measurement was a snapshot in time (not necessarily sustained), the highest unflagged SFMR reading was 133 knots, and the 148 knot FL winds would indicate 133 knots. I think this is simply, genuinely a 135-knot hurricane.

Better in the history books to be one of the stronger CAT-4’s to make landfall then to be one of the weakest/most borderline CAT-5’s imo.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I agree. Category 4 seems to be losing its "appreciation," recently; better observation methods (like SFMR, which I'm still skeptical of at times) is meaning more and more hurricanes that would have been classified as Category 4 hurricanes are now being classified as marginal Category 5 hurricanes, and I fear the effect (combined with the genuinely incredible streak of systems landfalling at Category 5 intensity - Irma, Maria, Michael, Dorian) is for Category 5 to be perceived as the new norm, and Category 4 to be underestimated and become the new 3 in people's minds of "dangerous but not the worst" (or at least that's what I'm seeing in Facebook groups). Upgrade to 5 should only be made based on solid evidence, IMO.

Put it this way, if this was in the West Pacific, it would be considered a landfalling super typhoon.

[Ed_2001]

Jeff’s livestream went down.

He’s livestreaming on YouTube for the time being.

https://youtu.be/3RPkb5uLbpU

[bob rulz]

Brett Adair is also still up

[sbcc]

Better Piotrowski stream here, if you've been fighting the Periscope freezing, Jeff just recommended we switch to it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RPkb5uLbpU

[sweetpea]

Brett Adair is also still up

Reed Timmer is too, he is driving around Lake Charles

[NotoSans]

Laura’s flight-level and SFMR winds are both lower than those of Michael, so post-season upgrade to category 5 is unlikely unless they have other data (eg. radar velocity) very clearly supporting otherwise.

That said, Laura is already the strongest landfalling TC over LA (tied with Besty) and the strongest on record near that part of the Gulf Coast. The difference between 130 and 140kt is for meteorological certainty only. Impact is still catastrophic.

[Blizzard96x]

Cameron camera just went under water confirming at least a 9 feet storm surge.... wow.

[Cerlin]

prayers to everyone in the path of this storm. what a monster laura is and i hope we can keep injuries at a minimum.

[AutoPenalti]

is Camera 8 under water???