ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

Guess we will see what recon finds...they are on the way I believe.

[ronjon]

Looks like the mid level center is now migrating northward toward the LLC to its NW. I think they'll align and become vertically stacked off Cape Sable-Everglades City in a couple of hours.

[MississippiWx]

Thunderstorms continue to rotate up shear as the circulation reorganizes. The motion is very slow as it is basically in the same place as it was at 7:00 this morning. To me, that doesn’t bode well as the center could be vertically stacked on its entire 3 day track across the Gulf.

[tailgater]

Guess we will see what recon finds...they are on the way I believe.

Yes the HH is currently in route south of Pensacola attm

[northjaxpro]

Looks like the mid level center is now migrating northward toward the LLC to its NW. I think they'll align and become vertically stacked off Cape Sable-Everglades City in a couple of hours.

Yes indeed. They are stacking vertically now. Late tonight and into tomorrow morning, this cyclone will be off to the races as it tracks underneath an anticyclone across the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

[Aric Dunn]

Should be completely offshore in about and hour. convection start to explode already on the east side.

[Steve]

That angle produces a worse surge for areas near NOLA I believe. I think that's close to the worse-case angle so hopefully this doesn't get to strong.

True but it needs to get thru lake ponchatrain or just south at wnw for that to occur. Tbd

A path like Betsy in 65 took, is one of the worst cases scenario’s for Nola, just south and west of the Mississippi River at 45-60 degree angle

1947 is likely worst case

[3090]

Light winds across Keys. Only significant wind is along SE peninsula.

http://wxman57.com/images/19a.JPG

You speak in vague terms, as far as any future development goes. Does your current observation mean, or portend to be anything going forward?

[Sanibel]

Heavy small-drop tropical rain here...

East to west low-hanging tropical clouds overhead...

Patches of hazy sun...Center is well to our south...Light winds...

[Blinhart]

Light winds across Keys. Only significant wind is along SE peninsula.

http://wxman57.com/images/19a.JPG

You speak in vague terms, as far as any future development goes. Does your current observation mean, or portend to be anything going forward?

I was going to ask Wxman57 pretty much the same thing. What are your observations and projections of this system?? Are you feeling that they are underestimating the ridge to the North or not?

[wxman57]

Guess we will see what recon finds...they are on the way I believe.

Recon won't tell us more than the numerous surface obs will. That one buoy offshore Miami keeps reporting 35-40 kt winds but nearby land obs have 15 kt winds.

[robbielyn]

Light winds across Keys. Only significant wind is along SE peninsula.

http://wxman57.com/images/19a.JPG

You speak in vague terms, as far as any future development goes. Does your current observation mean, or portend to be anything going forward?

I was going to ask Wxman57 pretty much the same thing. What are your observations and projections of this system?? Are you feeling that they are underestimating the ridge to the North or not?

He may or may not type too much because he fell and broke his wrist. so a little less commentary at least for now. probably saving it til things get more critical.

[Aric Dunn]

Center is crossing the coast.. ( might be a couple of small eddys from the friction). Once the east side gets over water and the inflow is not longer inhibited. we should see more of a concentraion around the center pretty quickly there after.

[us89]

Guess we will see what recon finds...they are on the way I believe.

Recon won't tell us more than the numerous surface obs will. That one buoy offshore Miami keeps reporting 35-40 kt winds but nearby land obs have 15 kt winds.

The station on Virginia Key has also been reporting TS-force sustained winds on and off this morning.

[NDG]

Should be completely offshore in about and hour. convection start to explode already on the east side.

Edit: I forgot to post this a few minutes ago, got stuck with the 12z HWRF coming in stronger.

It will be interesting if the recon will fly through the curbed band closest to the LLC which is inland over the marshlands of the Everglades, I am sure that's where the strongest winds are at flight level.

[Blinhart]

You speak in vague terms, as far as any future development goes. Does your current observation mean, or portend to be anything going forward?

I was going to ask Wxman57 pretty much the same thing. What are your observations and projections of this system?? Are you feeling that they are underestimating the ridge to the North or not?

He may or may not type too much because he fell and broke his wrist. so a little less commentary at least for now. probably saving it til things get more critical.

Did not know that, hope everything is ok with him.

[NDG]

Guess we will see what recon finds...they are on the way I believe.

Recon won't tell us more than the numerous surface obs will. That one buoy offshore Miami keeps reporting 35-40 kt winds but nearby land obs have 15 kt winds.

I am sure the recon will find TS force winds offshore for the upgrade.

[Aric Dunn]

Guess we will see what recon finds...they are on the way I believe.

Recon won't tell us more than the numerous surface obs will. That one buoy offshore Miami keeps reporting 35-40 kt winds but nearby land obs have 15 kt winds.

I am sure the recon will find TS force winds offshore for the upgrade.

yeah.

and there are little to no surface obs in the upper keys where all the TS winds have been on radar.

[Nimbus]

You speak in vague terms, as far as any future development goes. Does your current observation mean, or portend to be anything going forward?

I was going to ask Wxman57 pretty much the same thing. What are your observations and projections of this system?? Are you feeling that they are underestimating the ridge to the North or not?

He may or may not type too much because he fell and broke his wrist. so a little less commentary at least for now. probably saving it til things get more critical.

Even the models are having trouble early in the forecast due to the shear out of the north stripping the LLC.
I'd guess the LLC is going to stop chasing the convection and stack pretty soon, then the models have a stall close to landfall to be concerned about. edit to add: Sounds like Wxman57 will have to ride something with wider tires and a coaster brake for a while.

[wxman57]

Light winds across Keys. Only significant wind is along SE peninsula.

http://wxman57.com/images/19a.JPG

You speak in vague terms, as far as any future development goes. Does your current observation mean, or portend to be anything going forward?

I was going to ask Wxman57 pretty much the same thing. What are your observations and projections of this system?? Are you feeling that they are underestimating the ridge to the North or not?

Have a broken right wrist. Titanium plate installed Thursday to connect the 3 pieces of my radius bone. Hard to type much left-handed. Small Cat 1 into Gulf coast. This is no Katrina. Heavy rain may be biggest threat.