ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[ColdMiser123]

0z Best Track at 50 KT/998 mb.

[Aric Dunn]

0z Best Track at 50 KT/998 mb.

Yep typical.. winds go up when it looks far worse lol

[ColdMiser123]

0z Best Track at 50 KT/998 mb.

Yep typical.. winds go up when it looks far worse lol

Definitively has ingested some dry air, but I think 50 KT is probably the right intensity right now based off of the satellite blended intensity estimates.

Some pretty impressive convection firing off right now as well in the -75 to -80 C range, it will be interesting to see how much diurnal maximum can help Gonzalo out.

[Aric Dunn]

0z Best Track at 50 KT/998 mb.

Yep typical.. winds go up when it looks far worse lol

Definitively has ingested some dry air, but I think 50 KT is probably the right intensity right now based off of the satellite blended intensity estimates.

Some pretty impressive convection firing off right now as well in the -75 to -80 C range, it will be interesting to see how much diurnal maximum can help Gonzalo out.

I was teasing.

though it still does not have the deep 3/4 convective ring of 75 to -85C as it did earlier..

[Hammy]

0z Best Track at 50 KT/998 mb.

Yep typical.. winds go up when it looks far worse lol

Pretty sure it was stronger than 50kt in the morning.

[EquusStorm]

I assume 50kt is just consistency catch-up, might have some big timing changes in post analysis

[HurricaneBrain]

Hurricane watch for Barbados.

[Aric Dunn]

Feeder bands are beginning to fill back in outside the CDO.

sign of moisture return/better thermodynamics.

[Dougiefresh]

Hurricane watch for Barbados.

This surprised us in Barbados. Figured it would of come at some point but it's still rather far from us and uncertainty is still there.

[Dougiefresh]

Hurricane watch for Barbados.

This surprised us in Barbados. Figured it would of come at some point but it's still rather far from us and uncertainty is still there.

But its likely a way to deal with the crowds and Covid at the same time. We have a handful of cases in isolation but everyone still is wearing masks and getting your hands sanitized on entry to stores.

[storminabox]

Clearly both Gonzalo and Invest 91L didn't quite get where I expected.

Around 3pm, I thought Gonzalo would be a hurricane by 11pm, and I expected a tropical storm by 11pm in the Gulf of Mexico. I was wrong on both fronts. The last six hours have been pitiful for both our systems. Still a chance for both to exceed expectations tonight and tomorrow, though.

I don’t think pitiful is what I would describe this system as at all. It’s been behaving more reasonably is a better way to put it. This system has already over performed considering the abundant dry air surrounding it. Systems like Gonzalo are bound to have their ups and downs.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like it’s starting to get some life again. Taking on that banding appearance it had earlier this morning.

[gfsperpendicular]

4 hours have made a world of difference. From

to

[EquusStorm]

Getting that 'punch' of bands to the west again with seemingly less dry air now, overnight could be interesting

[CaribJam]

What impact do you all think the convection to Gonzalo's east will have? I seems to be advancing closer by the hour.

[FireRat]

Looking like a fist, an appearance that often indicates a strengthening cyclone. Gonzo is trying hard to get to Cat 1.

[Ubuntwo]

[EquusStorm]

Definitely looks like we're getting the outer bands back, now for a better core structure with a good cold sustained CDO and we should be good to go by morning

[storminabox]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/735228120797282395/735735621489786901/goes16_ir_goes16-meso2_20200723054705.png

Dry air entrainment?

[Ubuntwo]

up to 55kt in best track, with reason ^