ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cp79

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#681 Postby cp79 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:16 am

bella_may wrote:
MGC wrote:11am advisory has hurricane very near me Tuesday morning. What a birthday present! NHC has been very consistent with its forecast track of a landfall near LA/MS border Tuesday. Time to batten down the hatches....MGC

Path looks eerily similar to Katrina.


It is except the steering for this is a little more NW for it in the Gulf. Katrina was W steering and then the slow turn NNW and then N. May end up in same location though In the end, just at different angles.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#682 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:18 am

lhpfish wrote:39mph gust at pompano beach air park. Winds have definitely picked up here the last two hours
yes, its very different than at 6am, palm fronds are down and its very breezy
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#683 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:22 am

Now getting some good convection in the PVS that has been hammering this since yesterday.
It's been causing the so-called shear and keeping the vort column from stacking.
It should erode during the course of the day and allow the vort column to align better.
There is still the small ULL off to the west.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#684 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:23 am

How is it that we have zero upper keys reporting stations. there is one mesonet report and winds are calm.. lol
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#685 Postby Frank P » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:23 am

bella_may wrote:
MGC wrote:11am advisory has hurricane very near me Tuesday morning. What a birthday present! NHC has been very consistent with its forecast track of a landfall near LA/MS border Tuesday. Time to batten down the hatches....MGC

Path looks eerily similar to Katrina.

Katrina came in perpendicular to the coast at 90 deg, this looks more like 45-50 degrees to coast line. Huge difference in surge! At least for MS coast line
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#686 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:27 am

Ridging to the N & NW is slightly stronger than what the GFS showed for 12z.

Image
Image
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#687 Postby ronyan » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:28 am

Frank P wrote:
bella_may wrote:
MGC wrote:11am advisory has hurricane very near me Tuesday morning. What a birthday present! NHC has been very consistent with its forecast track of a landfall near LA/MS border Tuesday. Time to batten down the hatches....MGC

Path looks eerily similar to Katrina.

Katrina came in perpendicular to the coast at 90 deg, this looks more like 45-50 degrees to coast line. Huge difference in surge! At least for MS coast line


That angle produces a worse surge for areas near NOLA I believe. I think that's close to the worse-case angle so hopefully this doesn't get to strong.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#688 Postby gqhebert » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:29 am

NDG wrote:L is the 11 AM position, X is where clearly the LLC is based on radar and surface obserbations.

https://i.imgur.com/fd9Rj7O.gif



They are going to wait on recon to get to it and then update the center fix
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#689 Postby 3090 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:30 am

ronyan wrote:
Frank P wrote:
bella_may wrote:Path looks eerily similar to Katrina.

Katrina came in perpendicular to the coast at 90 deg, this looks more like 45-50 degrees to coast line. Huge difference in surge! At least for MS coast line


That angle produces a worse surge for areas near NOLA I believe. I think that's close to the worse-case angle so hopefully this doesn't get to strong.

CORRECT!!! Coming in just east of the MOTMR at an angle of about 45 degrees, is worst case.
Last edited by 3090 on Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#690 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:31 am

GCANE wrote:Now getting some good convection in the PVS that has been hammering this since yesterday.
It's been causing the so-called shear and keeping the vort column from stacking.
It should erode during the course of the day and allow the vort column to align better.
There is still the small ULL off to the west.

https://i.imgur.com/9oCYUmi.png

https://i.imgur.com/jI9qbRP.png


Hm.. I don't think that's a PV streamer, that's just a trough. PV streamers are something you see more frequently in the subtropics. As 19L generates more convection, the trough should weaken.

I don't see an ULL either.

Image
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#691 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:37 am

the Center is moving westerly.. slighly north of west recently on radar..

sitting over water pretty much at this point lol.

Image
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#692 Postby 3090 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:40 am

The center appears to be just off the coast west of Everglades national park.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#693 Postby Cat5James » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:45 am

Gusts in the 30s here in N Broward... not much rain yet
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#694 Postby tailgater » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:45 am

NDG wrote:L is the 11 AM position, X is where clearly the LLC is based on radar and surface obserbations.

]

I was about to mention that, not sure why except that continuity thing, that bugs me.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#695 Postby Frank P » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:46 am

ronyan wrote:
Frank P wrote:
bella_may wrote:Path looks eerily similar to Katrina.

Katrina came in perpendicular to the coast at 90 deg, this looks more like 45-50 degrees to coast line. Huge difference in surge! At least for MS coast line


That angle produces a worse surge for areas near NOLA I believe. I think that's close to the worse-case angle so hopefully this doesn't get to strong.


True but it needs to get thru lake ponchatrain or just south at wnw for that to occur. Tbd
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#696 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:54 am

Looks like this will be another weird slow moving storm on the coast. Hopefully people take it seriously after what happened with Marco, as this situation looks similar.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#697 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:58 am

Recon is heading off now.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#698 Postby tailgater » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:01 am

Frank P wrote:
ronyan wrote:
Frank P wrote:Katrina came in perpendicular to the coast at 90 deg, this looks more like 45-50 degrees to coast line. Huge difference in surge! At least for MS coast line


That angle produces a worse surge for areas near NOLA I believe. I think that's close to the worse-case angle so hopefully this doesn't get to strong.


True but it needs to get thru lake ponchatrain or just south at wnw for that to occur. Tbd


A path like Betsy in 65 took, is one of the worst cases scenario’s for Nola, just south and west of the Mississippi River at 45-60 degree angle
Last edited by tailgater on Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#699 Postby SueOrleans » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:01 am

Slightly off-topic, but hoping mods will excuse it: I'm really grateful to this community for everything I've learned here over the years. Just wanted to thank the educated and thoughtful folks who share their insights. Very helpful to me, especially this year. I work in school operations/administration. Yesterday we were enrolling kids who came over from Lake Charles due to Laura. Monday we're planning to bring kids into the buildings for the first time this school year. Last night when I saw the latest updates on 19's track, I literally "laughed and cried" for the first time ever. All that planning, potentially turned upside down.. But South Louisiana is resilient and tough; we'll pivot again if we have to. I will be better prepared than some because of things I've learned from y'all.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#700 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:03 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
GCANE wrote:Now getting some good convection in the PVS that has been hammering this since yesterday.
It's been causing the so-called shear and keeping the vort column from stacking.
It should erode during the course of the day and allow the vort column to align better.
There is still the small ULL off to the west.

https://i.imgur.com/9oCYUmi.png

https://i.imgur.com/jI9qbRP.png


Hm.. I don't think that's a PV streamer, that's just a trough. PV streamers are something you see more frequently in the subtropics. As 19L generates more convection, the trough should weaken.

I don't see an ULL either.

https://i.imgur.com/aS2kx7i.gif


Check WV Imagery on the Floater at TropicalTidbits.com...... You can clearly see the small ULL to the west of the Storm.
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