ATL: SALLY - Models
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
It's a crap shoot. Fixin' to print out the gulf and start tossing darts at it.
NHC has done a really good job sticking to their guns with the small changes rather than going all-in east or west. Conservative changes paying off.
NHC has done a really good job sticking to their guns with the small changes rather than going all-in east or west. Conservative changes paying off.
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- Stormgodess
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
FixySLN wrote:It's a crap shoot. Fixin' to print out the gulf and start tossing darts at it.
NHC has done a really good job sticking to their guns with the small changes rather than going all-in east or west. Conservative changes paying off.
Scary to be in Louisiana and watching her spin West of the forecast though
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
Stormgodess wrote:FixySLN wrote:It's a crap shoot. Fixin' to print out the gulf and start tossing darts at it.
NHC has done a really good job sticking to their guns with the small changes rather than going all-in east or west. Conservative changes paying off.
Scary to be in Louisiana and watching her spin West of the forecast though
Bunch of people on the Gulf biting their nails right now. Just be prepared, regardless.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
Looking down range. Some of the models have it exiting into the Atlantic and dropping South. Anyone think it would survive for another threat to Florida? That would be crazy!
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
00Z euro looks to have shifted landfall slightly west. But it’s really hard to tell with only 24 hour frames.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
bella_may wrote:00Z euro looks to have shifted landfall slightly west. But it’s really hard to tell with only 24 hour frames.
Euro is really slow. Still essentially offshore at 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
its not crazy, happened beforecaneman wrote:Looking down range. Some of the models have it exiting into the Atlantic and dropping South. Anyone think it would survive for another threat to Florida? That would be crazy!
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
jlauderdal wrote:its not crazy, happened beforecaneman wrote:Looking down range. Some of the models have it exiting into the Atlantic and dropping South. Anyone think it would survive for another threat to Florida? That would be crazy!
Ivan, I remember.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
Storm Battered wrote:jlauderdal wrote:its not crazy, happened beforecaneman wrote:Looking down range. Some of the models have it exiting into the Atlantic and dropping South. Anyone think it would survive for another threat to Florida? That would be crazy!
Ivan, I remember.
I know its happened before but its not that common. The question was... Does anyone see that happening in this case.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
caneman wrote:Storm Battered wrote:jlauderdal wrote:its not crazy, happened before
Ivan, I remember.
I know its happened before but its not that common. The question was... Does anyone see that happening in this case.
Occasional runs of the hurricane models showed decoupling with a low center migrating back. It’s possible, but I don’t have an opinion on it.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
12z Guidance... Intensity guidance is dropping most now low end Cat 1, some good news hopefully... NHC track now on the W side of the guidance...
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
Storm Battered wrote:jlauderdal wrote:its not crazy, happened beforecaneman wrote:Looking down range. Some of the models have it exiting into the Atlantic and dropping South. Anyone think it would survive for another threat to Florida? That would be crazy!
Ivan, I remember.
I was literally hit by Ivan 3 times!! Pensacola, Naples and again up in the Panhandle as I was roaming homeless after the 1st hit.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
lovingseason2013 wrote:Storm Battered wrote:jlauderdal wrote:its not crazy, happened before
Ivan, I remember.
I was literally hit by Ivan 3 times!! Pensacola, Naples and again up in the Panhandle as I was roaming homeless after the 1st hit.
Ivan made landfall Sept 16th 2004 So 16 yrs to the date around the same place. Crazy!
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- DestinHurricane
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
12Z GFS east and stronger.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
DestinHurricane wrote:12Z GFS east and stronger. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020091512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_3.png
Just saw that myself. Would not be good for us here in Mobile, Baldwin County, and the Western Panhandle
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
Looks like CMC is following GFS taking Sally right up Mobile Bay
Icon stalls south of Dauphin Island then moves NNE and makes landfall around Navarre
Icon stalls south of Dauphin Island then moves NNE and makes landfall around Navarre
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