ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[SoupBone]

I wasn't expecting this.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200821/025457-5day-cone-no-line-and-wind.png

Look at that landfall swath. South of Corpus Christi to eastern Terrebonne Parish.

[SconnieCane]

I wasn't expecting this.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200821/025457-5day-cone-no-line-and-wind.png

What ??

Ya. Hurricane right into Galveston (taking the center of the cone)?

[FixySLN]

At the slower rate of strengthening I'd expect, I think it may get shoved east a bit before landfall. Western coast of LA maybe. My OPINION regarding this wildness. Take it with a grain of salt...I'm not a met, just a quiet observer.

[Nederlander]

At the slower rate of strengthening I'd expect, I think it may get shoved east a bit before landfall. Western coast of LA maybe. My OPINION regarding this wildness. Take it with a grain of salt...I'm not a met, just a quiet observer.

Slow strengthening/weaker storm would result in less poleward movement (more west positioning, i.e. southern Texas coast)

[FixySLN]

At the slower rate of strengthening I'd expect, I think it may get shoved east a bit before landfall. Western coast of LA maybe. My OPINION regarding this wildness. Take it with a grain of salt...I'm not a met, just a quiet observer.

Slow strengthening/weaker storm would result in less poleward movement (more west positioning, i.e. southern Texas coast)

Not always. Nothing wants to be in the Western gulf right now. As a rule thumb, that's fair, but there are exception to that rule. If given a choice, a system will try and gulp up moisture and energy rather than a stubborn trough. A system with higher energy might be able to brute force its way into a weaker area, but not so much a weaker system. I hope I'm not tripping over myself here, but that's how It's been explained to me over the last few years.

[aspen]

If both of the 11pm forecasts were to verify, that would mean we would see Hurricanes Laura and Marco in the Gulf simultaneously. 2020 at its finest.

However, I’m not sure that could even happen. It might be one over the other — one of the system gets the advantage, and its outflow weakens the other.

[ElectricStorm]

I still think this one has big potential before it even gets to the Yucatan. If it can stay far enough off the Honduran coast it may be able to strengthen to much more than 65kts. Not saying its going to happen, but to me that is still a possibility. Hopefully it doesn't though.

[Nederlander]

Beaumont KFDM met Greg Bostwick is bearish on intensity potential in the GoM due to very dry air along the Texas coast. Sounds like he thinks the NHC may be on the upper end of potential. Glad to hear that.

[SoupBone]

Beaumont KFDM met Greg Bostwick is bearish on intensity potential in the GoM due to very dry air along the Texas coast. Sounds like he thinks the NHC may be on the upper end of potential. Glad to hear that.

I get that but the NHC putting out that almost surprising intensity means they are seeing something, and that's what has me concerned. I guess the question is, is the air dry enough to sop it up, like SAL does? Is it even going to still be there when this makes landfall?

[Nederlander]

Beaumont KFDM met Greg Bostwick is bearish on intensity potential in the GoM due to very dry air along the Texas coast. Sounds like he thinks the NHC may be on the upper end of potential. Glad to hear that.

I get that but the NHC putting out that almost surprising intensity means they are seeing something, and that's what has me concerned. I guess the question is, is the air dry enough to sop it up, like SAL does? Is it even going to still be there when this makes landfall?

Yeah, you can never count anything out in this area of the Gulf, well really anywhere in the Gulf.

[mpic]

Can't figure out how to delete it so erasing it with this.

[SoupBone]

A different take on -removed-, but since I live in Texas I wish we would get Laura. Not even ready for all the Marco Polo jokes. Lol

Why? Have you ever been through a hurricane?

[aspen]

The outflow from TD14 is impressive to say the least. It takes up a huge portion of the western Caribbean, from the Yucatán to Jamaica, and Honduras to Cuba. Such an excellent outflow setup will really help TD14 when it tries to further intensify within the next 48-60 hours.

[bohai]

Yeah I lived in Houston area for over 25 years. Meoirs of Allison and Harvey, both either low end storms or depressions. Copious amounts of rain and severe flooding. So weakening tropical cyclones don't really give me a sigh of relief. Hide from wind, run from water.

[Hammy]

A different take on -removed-, but since I live in Texas I wish we would get Laura. Not even ready for all the Marco Polo jokes. Lol

Why? Have you ever been through a hurricane?

I assumed they were talking about which name it would receive.

[SoupBone]

The outflow from TD14 is impressive to say the least. It takes up a huge portion of the western Caribbean, from the Yucatán to Jamaica, and Honduras to Cuba. Such an excellent outflow setup will really help TD14 when it tries to further intensify within the next 48-60 hours.

I wonder if this is part of the reason the NHC now forecasts a hurricane, because this will serve to add moisture to the environment ahead of it.

[mpic]

A different take on -removed-, but since I live in Texas I wish we would get Laura. Not even ready for all the Marco Polo jokes. Lol

Why? Have you ever been through a hurricane?

I was afraid somebody would misread that. Yes I've been through several including Harvey. I will delete it.

[Hammy]

Looks like it's about onshore

[GCANE]

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

Recent METOP-A/B ASCAT overpasses and earlier aircraft
reconnaissance data indicate that the depression's circulation is
not well-defined. In fact, the scatterometer data revealed multiple
swirls, particularly, one newly developed circulation near a recent
strong burst of deep convection near the coast of Honduras. Highest
sustained winds from the scatterometer pass were 25-30 kt. For this
advisory, the initial position is an uncertain centroid position of
the multiple surface centers and the intensity is held at 30 kt. A
53rd Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight is scheduled for this
morning and will hopefully paint a clearer picture on the
depression's location.

Deep convection has been increasing during the past few hours,
especially in the north portion of the depression, so gradual
strengthening is still expected before it makes landfall on the east
side of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. After that time,
some weakening is forecast while the cyclone traverses the
peninsula. The system is expected to enter the warm waters of the
southern Gulf of Mexico around the 60 hr period and restrengthen
through the remainder of the forecast. Global models, however, are
indicating increasing south-southwesterly shear as the cyclone
enters the northwest portion of the gulf which could prevent it from
reaching hurricane strength prior to landfall. For now, the
forecast will reflect a low-end hurricane making landfall, similar
to the HCCA intensity model. The new intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous advisory and is based on a
compromise of the various multi-model consensus aids.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10
kt. The depression is forecast to be steered generally
northwestward during the next few days by a western extension of the
atlantic subtropical ridge that stretches westward across Florida
and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. This general
motion should result in landfall over the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula on Saturday, with the system entering the northwestern
Gulf by the middle of next week. I think it's worth noting that
both the UKMET and the DWD, Germany ICON global models are showing
some binary interaction between the depression and Tropical
Depression Thirteen around the 96-120 hr period while both systems
are situated in the Gulf of Mexico. If this scenario actually
occurs, the interaction could delay or slow tropical depression
Fourteen's landfall over the northwestern Gulf coast.

The NHC forecast track is again adjusted a little to the right of
the previous forecast and lies close to the TVCA and HCCA
consensus solutions.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to
produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions
of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands,
through today. The system is expected be near or at hurricane
strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late
Saturday where a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in
effect.

2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of
Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is
anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of
Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how
strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will
produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in
that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system
over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 15.4N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 16.3N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 17.7N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 19.2N 86.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 20.7N 87.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1800Z 22.5N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/0600Z 24.5N 90.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 28.1N 93.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 30.4N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[GCANE]

ADT & IR Satellite position estimates
ASCAT estimate superimposed on forecast track