ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Eye looks a little off and cloud tops have warmed on the east side. Probably just a temporary hiccup, and recon will still likely find a stronger storm than when it left

[aspen]

I think the eyewall gap is why Teddy is having this intensification hiccup (although the pressure is still falling). If it can close off that hole, a Cat 5 is likely, since there’s still no sign of an EWRC.

[us89]

Hey, blame the NHC not me for that.

I actually agree, I think they need to have a Cat 6 for storms with winds from 180-205 MPH and Cat 7 for storms 205+MPH.

Nah. The damage of a cat 5 is already complete destruction. No need to add any categories. Same with tornadoes

I disagree with this. The EF-scale for tornadoes is explicitly a damage scale - any wind speeds associated with EF-scale ratings are simply estimates based on damage.

The SSHWS is explicitly a wind scale - and while surface damage may be used in post-analysis to assess the intensity of landfalling tropical cyclones, the winds of tropical cyclones are usually directly measured or estimated from direct measurements (surface observations, buoys, ship reports, recon FL wind, SFMR, dropsondes, etc).

With that in mind, in my opinion it wouldn't be a terrible idea to separate category 5 storms into three categories: "average" (like Michael, Matthew), "extreme" (Irma, Dorian, Rita), and "exceptional" (Patricia). If I had my way I'd start "category 6" at 155 kt/180 mph, and "category 7" would start at 175 kt/200 mph.

[Shell Mound]

Eye looks a little off and cloud tops have warmed on the east side. Probably just a temporary hiccup, and recon will still likely find a stronger storm than when it left

Data from the northeastern quadrant confirm that the MSW at 10 m are still ~120 knots, based on an averaged reduction of FL and SFMR-derived winds.

[ClarCari]

I actually agree, I think they need to have a Cat 6 for storms with winds from 180-205 MPH and Cat 7 for storms 205+MPH.

Nah. The damage of a cat 5 is already complete destruction. No need to add any categories. Same with tornadoes

I disagree with this. The EF-scale for tornadoes is explicitly a damage scale - any wind speeds associated with EF-scale ratings are simply estimates based on damage.

The SSHWS is explicitly a wind scale - and while surface damage may be used in post-analysis to assess the intensity of landfalling tropical cyclones, the winds of tropical cyclones are usually directly measured or estimated from direct measurements (surface observations, buoys, ship reports, recon FL wind, SFMR, dropsondes, etc).

With that in mind, in my opinion it wouldn't be a terrible idea to separate category 5 storms into three categories: "average" (like Michael, Matthew), "extreme" (Irma, Dorian, Rita), and "exceptional" (Patricia). If I had my way I'd start "category 6" at 155 kt/180 mph, and "category 7" would start at 175 kt/200 mph.

EF5 tornadoes and Category 5 hurricanes are just too rare too split then up into subcategories. Maybeee with climate change that may one day be the case

[PavelGaborik10]

Oh, who cares about the 7 day range. GIGO at that range. I am talking about the 4 days Bermuda impacts, which are looking less and less every run as the models trend east.

Teddy is only 5 days away from a potential US/Canada impact, sir.

True, but consider plasticup's location. Maybe under normal circumstances they wouldn't have said that. Their focus is, understandably, on Bermuda.

I'm from Nova Scotia which currently has a bullseye on it in the five day range.

So to answer his question, I certainly care where this ends up 108-120 hours from now. I think everyone from Bermuda, to Maine all the way to Newfoundland should be closely monitoring this system.

With all due respect the general geographical location of the vast majority of posters active in this very thread isn't too hard to gauge.

There are very, very few posters who care to follow a system that isn't an immediate threat to the US.

[tolakram]

Teddy is only 5 days away from a potential US/Canada impact, sir.

True, but consider plasticup's location. Maybe under normal circumstances they wouldn't have said that. Their focus is, understandably, on Bermuda.

I'm from Nova Scotia which currently has a bullseye on it in the five day range.

So to answer his question, I certainly care where this ends up 108-120 hours from now. I think everyone from Bermuda, to Maine all the way to Newfoundland should be closely monitoring this system.

You might want to consider putting your general location as part of your profile so we don't have to guess.

To everyone:

As usual with these types of situations, please stop finding things to get upset about, if you have a problem with a post report it.

[SconnieCane]

Everyone became bearish on the bear, so it growled and bombed out.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Another little update on Hurricane Teddy from my blog.

http://theweatherwatch.org/category-4-h ... r-bermuda/

[cheezyWXguy]

Think the reason for the recent slight degradation of it appearance is due to a minor gulp of dry air. Vis/shortwave shows the eye has remained a consistent width but has become a little cloud-filled, and there is a dry slot just to the north of the cdo. I think this will mix out pretty quickly and Teddy will have his best shot at cat5 overnight

[aspen]

Think the reason for the recent slight degradation of it appearance is due to a minor gulp of dry air. Vis/shortwave shows the eye has remained a consistent width but has become a little cloud-filled, and there is a dry slot just to the north of the cdo. I think this will mix out pretty quickly and Teddy will have his best shot at cat5 overnight

It probably will, because recon confirmed the eyewall has closed again. The dry air might’ve degraded the southern eyewall over the past few hours and Teddy has only just been able to mix out enough dry air to close it.

[aspen]

Recon is leaving already after just one pass. We’re going to have to rely solely on satellite estimates from now on, and with this hiccup in organization, those could get brought down briefly.

[Do_For_Love]

Recon is leaving already after just one pass. We’re going to have to rely solely on satellite estimates from now on, and with this hiccup in organization, those could get brought down briefly.

Does Dmax have any effect on storms of this magnitude?

[Beef Stew]

Recon is leaving already after just one pass. We’re going to have to rely solely on satellite estimates from now on, and with this hiccup in organization, those could get brought down briefly.

Well, that was quick. If we get another bout of intensification later tonight (as I suspect we might), it's a shame recon won't be there for it. At least the NHC has been nailing the intensity based off of satellite imagery so far with Teddy.

[aspen]

I believe there are two possibilities for Teddy in the next 24-48 hours:

1.) Teddy overcomes this hiccup in RI and continues to bomb out, becoming a Category 5 hurricane sometime tomorrow.

2.) Teddy continues to have its eyewall broken and reformed, putting a lid on intensification and having it remain around 115-125 kt for a while.

The first scenario could lead to an ERWC coming on quicker. However, the second would rack up a lot more ACE, assuming the first would lead to quicker weakening after an EWRC.

[northjaxpro]

What a darn shame that we will not have Recon out there just as Teddy could be ramping to Cat 5 intensity.

Satellite estimates will have to suffice.

[dukeblue219]

What a darn shame that we will not have Recon out there just as Teddy could be ramping to Cat 5 intensity.

Satellite estimates will have to suffice.

Looks like NOAA3 recon is making a pass right now, NW to SE. Should be in the center in 10 minutes or so. Not sure why everyone is saying they left the scene.

[ElectricStorm]

What a darn shame that we will not have Recon out there just as Teddy could be ramping to Cat 5 intensity.

Satellite estimates will have to suffice.

At least we know they aren't afraid to pull the trigger on cat 5 if needed. They did it with Lorenzo

[dukeblue219]

Through NW eyewall now, 946.8 extrap, 114kt SFMR

[aspen]

Eye has become more ragged but it still looks good.