ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneEnzo]

Partial eyewall seen in a microwave pass from 2 hours ago:
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al07/amsusr89/2020al07_amsusr89_202007221515.gif

Whatever that is to the north looks like it could prevent dry air intrusion for awhile, at least from the north.

Looks like a boundary going up where the dry SAL laden air and the more moist air are battling it out.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Huge convective burst is now covering what eye was there. All in the strengthening process though.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF getting the 'W' thus far. It has been the most in line with actuality versus the other major models. Stronger storm equals a more resilient, slower, slightly more Northerly storm which at least increases the odds some this doesn't fizzle out in a few days. Speed being the real x factor imo. Slow enough and the SAL will shoot on past it.

Speaking of speed, has anyone noticed the line in the latest TWD about the wave west of Gonzalo moving west at 20 to 25 knots?

I wonder if Gonzalo will soon follow suit. Hmm

I posted about this just up a little.

the surge has already shot past Gonzalo and flattened out. the break between the two ridges is not far east of Gonzalo. and Gonzalo should have already started moving faster .. but it has not.

[GCANE]

Good symmetry on 37GHz with strong eyewall on the west and south quads.
Towers obviously obscuring the eye.
Looks like the eye maybe 7 to 10ish nm wide.
Given the rapid intensification, could be a pinhole.

[Aric Dunn]

We have 3/4 of a donut of -70 to -85 tops around the center now.

The eye up through all layers should begin to clear out with this type of convection.

[storminabox]

I think Gonzalo is a serious indicator that this season is not messing around. I don’t think it has had one bad moment in all of the time that we have been watching it.

[GCANE]

I think Gonzalo is a serious indicator that this season is not messing around. I don’t think it has had one bad moment in all of the time that we have been watching it.

Slight burp this morning with dry air.
Hardly skipped a beat though.

[HurricaneEnzo]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... split.html

Leading edge of the SAL has surged past but still plenty to its North. If the rest can blow by before it gains much Latitude Gonzalo will find himself in a much moister pouch of air thanks to a trailing tropical wave.

[storminabox]

I think Gonzalo is a serious indicator that this season is not messing around. I don’t think it has had one bad moment in all of the time that we have been watching it.

Slight burp this morning with dry air.
Hardly skipped a beat though.

I must have not been up to see it. It bounced back really quick though.

[northjaxpro]

We almost have that intense ring of convection around the eye just about complete.
Wow!! It is amazing how quickly these small cyclones can intensify. We probably are looking at major TC here.

[BYG Jacob]

Gonzalo Trying to be our first hurricane and major.

[tiger_deF]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

Leading edge of the SAL has surged past but still plenty to its North. If the rest can blow by before it gains much Latitude Gonzalo with find himself in a much moister pouch of air thanks to a trailing tropical wave.

Gotta say for such a small storm Gonzalo has done a pretty good job of making a compact moisture pocket

[Chris90]

Some ensembles were posted in the model thread that showed a track that is very similar to Allen '80, Gonzalo is just about a week and a half ahead of him in formation though. It'll be interesting to see what Gonzalo actually ends up doing. I agree with others that a major is definitely on the table as a possibility. Might also fall apart quickly, these small systems are so tricky.

Let's hope 2020 doesn't want to break another 2005 record for most intense July hurricane.

[CyclonicFury]

Only 45 kt on the 18z BT. Thought it would be higher.

[HurricaneEnzo]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

Leading edge of the SAL has surged past but still plenty to its North. If the rest can blow by before it gains much Latitude Gonzalo with find himself in a much moister pouch of air thanks to a trailing tropical wave.

Gotta say for such a small storm Gonzalo has done a pretty good job of making a compact moisture pocket

Definitely, keeping far enough South to avoid the worst of the SAL and to continue feeding off the itcz. Maybe it's just me but there seems to be an uptick in these 'low riders' the last few years.

[tiger_deF]

Really developing it's western flank, look at the semicircle of hot towers

[TheProfessor]

The fact that Gonzalo is doing this outside of D-Max and in July is quite amazing.

[Hammy]

Only 45 kt on the 18z BT. Thought it would be higher.

BT updates about 60-90 mins after the "intermediate advisory" time point--Tropical Atlantic still has 12z up.

[Highteeld]

ADT is suggesting 50 mph is a bit low

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 JUL 2020 Time : 182025 UTC
Lat : 9:55:55 N Lon : 44:14:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 /1001.0mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.5 3.6

[Kingarabian]

ADT is suggesting 50 mph is a bit low

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 JUL 2020 Time : 182025 UTC
Lat : 9:55:55 N Lon : 44:14:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 /1001.0mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.5 3.6

ADT is automatic and sometimes fixes or resolves the center wrong, so if the center fix is not properly done, it will show erroneous numbers.