ATL: TEDDY - Models

[CrazyC83]

Larry, looks like significant number of GEFS members SW of Operational run

00z GEFS majority west of ops.

https://i.ibb.co/rvCy9NW/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-39.png

Am I mistaken or is one of the ensembles in the east blob at 912mb, or is that 1012mb. I can't tell.

Probably 912 mb.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the coarse WSI 500 hPa vorticity maps, the Euro is significantly faster than 12z with the western lobe so far, maybe about 3-4 degrees west at hour 36 valid the same time stamp.

earlier ASCAT probably assisted with this run.. the 18 and 12z had no ASCAT as it was still over land.

The Euro has some of the best satellite data assimilation out of all guidance, it should correct the forecast if satellite observations show a significant discrepancy from previous forecasts.

looks like it is more in line with the GFS at 72 hours. no turn so far ( same time as 12z had it turning) and paulette/Rene are much farther north.

[ColdMiser123]

Crossing 40 W about 24 hours sooner compared to 12z.

[Aric Dunn]

Crossing 40 W about 24 hours sooner compared to 12z.

it definitely develops the western area completely free from the influence of the easter surge.. unlike earlier.

[Aric Dunn]

00z GFS and Euro are much more in line now at 72 hours.

they even have similar synoptics.. Euro is just a little slower than the GFS still.

but big difference from earlier..

what happens after 72 hours is just for fun.. until we have an established system. but at least they are in agreement now.

[Keldeo1997]

Trap door closed

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020091100/ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_5.png

Trap door closed

probably the last frame until fantasy land territory with this setup. everything that happens after 4 days out is still a crap-shoot.

[ColdMiser123]

The Euro is still significantly east of the GFS, this might still miss the islands verbatim. Very delicate situation being shown here.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro 120 hours heading west still.. 12z as this time it was heading due north about 500 miles away..

still slower than the GFS. but overall very similar.

thats all I needed to see.. GFS and euro matching up with current conditions.. GFS ensembles way west. .. I bet EPS are about the same.. western Carrib to SE florida likely on this run.

night night..

[Keldeo1997]

I think anything past 120H is trash this run. Paulette just splits in half and leaves behind some energy

[ColdMiser123]

Rene is really a wildcard here. This will miss the islands on the Euro since Rene erodes the ridge just enough to curve up around 55 W. Tons of possibilities on the table, even with a significantly farther west launching pad.

[Keldeo1997]

See this is why its bad. The leftover energy moves SW into the Bahamas weakening the ridge causing a NW turn

[LarryWx]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020091100/ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_7.png

See this is why its bad. The leftover energy moves SW into the Bahamas weakening the ridge causing a NW turn

How do you know that is bad as opposed to being a reasonable possibility?
By the way it will shortly turn back to the WNW and possibly even W for at least awhile i think.

Edit: I was wrong as it really never got back to WNW and it hardly got past 60W the rest of the run.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I still feel the Euro is significantly underdoing the future intensity of Paulette in the short term. Maybe that's why the GFS and Euro continue to be so different with 95L? Cannot help but to notice every time the Euro shows Paulette stronger, 95L ends up being more west.

[Fancy1001]

I still feel the Euro is significantly underdoing the future intensity of Paulette in the short term. Maybe that's why the GFS and Euro continue to be so different with 95L?

I still have a Category 5 landfall in either Miami or Tampa on my 2020 bingo card, and I'm really hoping I don't have to check off that box with Sally/Teddy.

[SFLcane]

00z guidance Euro/GFS agree on 95L missing the conus. Hope this trend continues

[LarryWx]

00z guidance Euro/GFS agree on 95L missing the conus. Hope this trend continues

0Z EPS: Whereas more than half the members recurved E of 70W, unfortunately ~25% of the members went into or very near the Caribbean and at least threatened the CONUS.

[Keldeo1997]

Why do these Model's want such a big jump North?

[SFLcane]

00z guidance Euro/GFS agree on 95L missing the conus. Hope this trend continues

0Z EPS: Whereas more than half the members recurved E of 70W, unfortunately ~25% of the members went into or very near the Caribbean and at least threatened the CONUS.

Yep, looks quite active near FL. If anything signal increased.

[chris_fit]

06Z GFS so far is slowest of last 6 runs, has Paulette moving out quicker, and Rene is weaker.