WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

Bombs out on the HWRF at hour 78

[mrbagyo]

Maysak got that classic WPAC look with its prominent western band

[Highteeld]

The CCC pattern would appear to be changing today, circulation looks more consolidated on visible satellite

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 1060&y=993

[1900hurricane]

If positioned correctly, the giant TUTT cell to the NE could be a venting machine. TEJ is also doing work whisking outflow away from Maysak.

[euro6208]

55 knots

WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MAYSAK)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 601 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTH AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 282200Z WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 282141Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM RJTD, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS FROM 290000Z AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS FROM 282140Z. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONVERGENT FLOW FROM A WESTWARD PROPAGATING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL POSITIONED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION TO WARM SST, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) REMAINS HIGH. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY IN A UNCERTAIN STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MAYSAK WILL BEGIN A SLOW, GENERALLY NORTHWARD TURN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A REORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGES TAKES PLACE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH VERY WARM SST, ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (< 10 KTS) VWS. ADDITIONALLY, THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTWARD PROPAGATING TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG THE BUILDING STR, LEADING TO AN INTENSITY OF 85 KTS BY TAU 24. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO REORIENT, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND FURTHER INTENSIFY TO 95 KTS. AFTER TAU 36, TS MAYSAK WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LEAD TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE WITH A MAXIMUM CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 170 NM AT TAU 72. AT THIS TIME, ECMWF, JGSM AND UKMET ALL CONVERGE WEST OF THE JTWC MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS, WHILE THE GFS (DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE) AND AFUM TRACKS LIE TO THE EAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, THERE IS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL (TAU 0-72) PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REORIENT AND DEEPEN AFTER TAU 72 AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM OF TS 09W. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 96. DURING THIS TIME, SSTS WILL BEGIN TO COOL SLIGHTLY. DESPITE THIS, GIVEN THE INCREASED TRACK SPEED THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS AS IT REACHES THE STR AXIS BY TAU 96 DUE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR AND OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. AT TAU 96, TS MAYSAK WILL ROUND THE STR AND BEGIN TO ENTER COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING VWS. THESE CONDITIONS, COUPLED WITH DECREASING DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT DUE TO AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING TO 70 KTS BY TAU 120 AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS ONLY OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 987.5mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.3 3.3

[mrbagyo]

The low level circulation is fully exposed at the moment but I'm not concerned with Maysak's well being for I know convection will start to explode again once the sun comes down this afternoon/ evening - there's just a lot of moisture to work with.

[shah83]

00z HWRF run is...um...interesting.

[Highteeld]

HWRF wants to bomb to a super typhoon lol

[Highteeld]

HWRF wants to bomb to a super typhoon lol

The thermodynamics support it for sure. 10-15 knots of shear is the only fly in the ointment for now, but storms like Halong, Dorian, and Michael all became cat 5's with similar shear magnitudes.

[Cunxi Huang]

Here we go again.

[euro6208]

900 MB

[euro6208]

Maysak in March 2015 peaked at 150 knots, the strongest typhoon on record before April.

[mrbagyo]

Typhoonhunter is now in Okinawa
 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1299640483224854529

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC and JMA forecasts are so aggressive. Both are analyzing 55kts 985mb as of 06Z/09Z. JTWC expects a 90kts TY on the next 24hrs, while JMA has a 30mb pressure drop next 24hrs then peaking near Okinawa as a 925mb TY. Notably, among the models, HWRF has a ≥category 3 TY tomorrow and further into a category 5.

I'm actually confused whether to believe the above forecasts or not. Surely, the TUTT to its east will enhance poleward outflow, but the developing inner core looks to be quite large, which could result to a slower rate of strengthening despite the favorable environment. For comparison, Amphan a few months ago in the NIO was similarly large-sized as Maysak, but it had a tighter core then quickly made its way to category 5. Overall, Maysak's current structure do not scream the RI that the agencies are forecasting. I personally think Maysak's intensification will not be as quick as the aforementioned forecasts, but it will still likely be a category 3 TY near Okinawa in 3 days time (more in line with the ECMWF model intensity).

[mrbagyo]

big burst of convection appears to be a little bit displaced to the SW of LLCC

[Hayabusa]

TY 2009 (Maysak)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 29 August 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 29 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°00' (17.0°)
E129°00' (129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 55 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

[euro6208]

Hot towers as sun sets.

[1900hurricane]

MetOp-B ASCAT and MW data confirms the center is right where it looks on IR.







The stage is set.

[doomhaMwx]

MetOp-B ASCAT and MW data confirms the center is right where it looks on IR.

https://i.imgur.com/hQZ4QV0.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/FKxUK9d.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/3YSSuMa.gif

The stage is set.

Weird how there are no barbs exceeding 45kts on the 13Z bullseye ASCAT pass.