ATL: LAURA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

And just so no one feels left out... The JMA

[AtlanticWind]

Just remember that shifts to the east are more common than west in this situation. Models frequently overdo ridging early on. If I had to bet I would bet OTS for this one.

I have to respectively disagree, I have seen just as many west shifts from models over the years
Irma ,Frances,Ivan, Floyd ,and Ike I believe to name a few.

[caneseddy]

Just remember that shifts to the east are more common than west in this situation. Models frequently overdo ridging early on. If I had to bet I would bet OTS for this one.

I have to respectively disagree, I have seen just as many west shifts from models over the years
Irma ,Frances,Ivan, Floyd ,and Ike I believe to name a few.

Don't forget Matthew

[SouthFLTropics]

A smart man wouldn't make any predictions on where 98L is going to end up right now. A smart forecaster would take a blend of the Ensemble forecasts and some of the deterministic runs and go in the middle(though the GFS would probably be thrown out of this blend for being an outlier right now.). I'd give my opinion on where this would track, but there's no reason for me to when we're 8 or so days out and I'm not giving a forecast to a client.

Even Eric Blake recently tweeted that looking at model solutions beyond short term is pure folly

Agreed...But it's damn good entertainment. Let's face it. The reason we are all here is to religiously watch the models run every six hours just to see what they will show next. And then follow that up by discussing the possibilities. We'll leave the forecasting up to the folks at the NHC to do that.

[Blown Away]

GFS ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/tze0cXW.png

Ensembles see possible hurricane for the NE Caribbean/PR... Wow ramped up quickly...

[ConvergenceZone]

GFS ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/tze0cXW.png

Ensembles see possible hurricane for the NE Caribbean/PR... Wow ramped up quickly...

Yep between 97 and 98, gonna have 2 potential hurricanes on our hands

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pointless to speculate on track, but the key takeaway here is that most reliable models are showing some sort of decently developed tropical cyclone approaching the islands in 96 hours.

[SFLcane]

GFS ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/tze0cXW.png

The middle of that and EPS is something terrible into S FL.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1295452958939897859

[FixySLN]

If this doesn't shift west, I'll eat Taco Bell two nights in a row. Likely a level above eating ones shoe.

[TheStormExpert]

Another storm that was coming from the SE towards Florida is Frances in 2004. It slowed to a crawl in the NW Bahamas before the ridge rebuilt to its north shoving it into East-Central Florida. So it is possible to see a East Cost of Florida strike from the SE and not due East.

[plasticup]

In the "For What Its Worth" department, I give you the 12z NAVGEM for your viewing entertainment...Enjoy

https://i.imgur.com/TS08Uyy.gif

NAVGEM doing Florida from both ends. Filthy stuff.

[SouthFLTropics]

Another storm that was coming from the SE towards Florida is Frances in 2004. It slowed to a crawl in the NW Bahamas before the ridge rebuilt to its north shoving it into East-Central Florida. So it is possible to see a East Cost of Florida strike from the SE and not due East.

I've been saying since this came off of Africa that this thing had a Frances vibe to it. Setup seems very similar.

[Highteeld]

[SouthFLTropics]

And we're off and running for 18z. ICON rolling.

Just for reference...The 12z ICON had a 992mb cyclone just north of the islands and east of PR at 126 hours. We'll see where this 120 hour run ends up.

[drezee]

Irma at about the same longitude

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/903351848815525888

[WeatherEmperor]

Irma at about the same longitude

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/903351848815525

I have a question about this. With Irma, the Euro eru early on showed a more West solution conpared to other models. As it pertains to 98L, the fact that it is showing a recurve so early on do you think that the Euro may be right about the eventual track turning north??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[AxaltaRacing24]

Irma at about the same longitude

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/903351848815525

I have a question about this. With Irma, the Euro eru early on showed a more West solution conpared to other models. As it pertains to 98L, the fact that it is showing a recurve so early on do you think that the Euro may be right about the eventual track turning north??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

not necessarily, not every setup is the same.

for reference, the eps mean was off the east coast at the time of that tweet.

[AxaltaRacing24]

icon appears to be moving wsw or wwsww at the end of the run.

[SouthFLTropics]

ICON is actually a bit further north than the 12z run was at the same time. About the same strength.