ATL: HANNA - Models

[Steve]

^^ NAM has it, GFS looks to have the early most rain in SELA (through 54 hours).

[Cpv17]

The trend today has been a track further south more towards Corpus Christi. The RGV may get a deluge from this.

[stormlover2013]

The trend today has been a track further south more towards Corpus Christi. The RGV may get a deluge from this.

There is no Trend till we have a center

[Steve]

The trend today has been a track further south more towards Corpus Christi. The RGV may get a deluge from this.

There is no Trend till we have a center

There is more than one type of trend

[Cpv17]

The trend today has been a track further south more towards Corpus Christi. The RGV may get a deluge from this.

There is no Trend till we have a center

The farthest north this will go would be Freeport. Farthest south will be Brownsville based on what I’m seeing today.

[stormlover2013]

The trend today has been a track further south more towards Corpus Christi. The RGV may get a deluge from this.

There is no Trend till we have a center

The farthest north this will go would be Freeport. Farthest south will be Brownsville based on what I’m seeing today.

Don’t think it will make it to Freeport unless it can get stronger, but no doubt but if this was late August man oh man could have been real trouble

[Cpv17]

18z suite of hurricane models on TT shifted north.

[abk_0710]

18z suite of hurricane models on TT shifted north.

Can you post a pic?

[Cpv17]

18z suite of hurricane models on TT shifted north.

Can you post a pic?

No but I can tell you the HMON has it towards Rockport, the HWRF-P has it towards Matagorda, and the HWRF has it in Galveston.

[Steve]

Here's the SFWMD link to the plots. You don't usually see that much divergence within 2 days. Still, you get the general idea of WNW'ish followed by western turn inland.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

The 00Z HRRR is running now. That's 36 hours, so we'll see where it's going with things in about 20 minutes.

[Steve]

It's 10, so some of the globals will start rolling in this hour. So far, we have the NAM 3km 00z run showing this will be a pulsing system. Despite favorable upper patterns, it's still just July. We're in a positive MJO phase, but there's still dry air and subsidence. So you can kind of see what it's doing and hinting at rather than steady intensification to landfall or whatever.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2300&fh=37

Here's the 60 hour /7am Saturday showing it blowing up for the 3rd time at around landfall.


ICON and then GFS, CMC and the Hurricane models are next.

[Steve]

Random stuff when you run too many models. Here is ICON valid for Tuesday, July 28th at 7:00am.



Can I get an I storm or TD10 moving toward NWFL? haha. I know that some of the models have shown trailing energy behind 8. But come on. No way though I thought it was interesting.

I'm waiting for its total precip to catch up to the model run so I can post it. I figured that is the biggest benchmark we can rate the models on for this particular system. i don't so much care about the center itself, because that's missing the big picture.

[floridasun78]

Random stuff when you run too many models. Here is ICON valid for Tuesday, July 28th at 7:00am.

https://i.imgur.com/ycDGvIu.png

Can I get an I storm or TD10 moving toward NWFL? haha. I know that some of the models have shown trailing energy behind 8. But come on. No way though I thought it was interesting.

I'm waiting for its total precip to catch up to the model run so I can post it. I figured that is the biggest benchmark we can rate the models on for this particular system. i don't so much care about the center itself, because that's missing the big picture.

what that in north fl? td8 want into texas

[Cpv17]

Random stuff when you run too many models. Here is ICON valid for Tuesday, July 28th at 7:00am.

https://i.imgur.com/ycDGvIu.png

Can I get an I storm or TD10 moving toward NWFL? haha. I know that some of the models have shown trailing energy behind 8. But come on. No way though I thought it was interesting.

I'm waiting for its total precip to catch up to the model run so I can post it. I figured that is the biggest benchmark we can rate the models on for this particular system. i don't so much care about the center itself, because that's missing the big picture.

The ICON has the heaviest rain south of the center. STX gets a ton of rain, SETX not as much.

[Steve]

Random stuff when you run too many models. Here is ICON valid for Tuesday, July 28th at 7:00am.

https://i.imgur.com/ycDGvIu.png

Can I get an I storm or TD10 moving toward NWFL? haha. I know that some of the models have shown trailing energy behind 8. But come on. No way though I thought it was interesting.

I'm waiting for its total precip to catch up to the model run so I can post it. I figured that is the biggest benchmark we can rate the models on for this particular system. i don't so much care about the center itself, because that's missing the big picture.

what that in north fl? td8 want into texas

Trailing or leftover energy. Maybe a surge coming out the Atlantic. It's the first I've seen anything there in that timeframe.

[Steve]

I'll post ICON, CMC and GFS Rainfall because I can get those off TT. For anyone who has access to the better stuff, please post. But I'm going to bed after these 3 are done.

ICON valid Monday 7pm


GFS valid Monday 7pm

[Stormcenter]

Looks like LA will get the brunt of the heavy
rain per models.

[Steve]

Here is another oddity. GFS follows ICON with a secondary low in the North Gulf. It's weaker than 8, but that's 2 models so far that hint something's right after 8/Hanna. Maybe it's one of her sisters. haha. This could be under a high pressure per the 576 red dashed height lines.



Edit as a further aside, GFS brings a 3rd low up by July 30th. WT*? Probably Gustavo's remnants there, but still...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 300&fh=108

[Steve]

Finally, here is the CMC. It more closely resembles the ICON.

[Cpv17]

Strange to see how the NHC has landfall near Matagorda Bay and the heaviest qpf by far is over STX on the models. Hardly anything north and east of the center.