ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

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NXStumpy_Robothing
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#61 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:22 am

GCANE wrote:Convection south of Cuba looks interesting.
Right under anti-cyclonic flow.
Wonder if this is what CMC is focusing on for tomorrow.
Can't rule out that one north of the Yucatan as well.

https://i.imgur.com/afcYMIx.png

It almost looked like the CMC was attempting to say that the ULL moving towards the Bay of Campeche was the initialization point. An interesting take for sure.

Regarding the convection, we've seen this story before. Yesterday, similar convection collapsed in the hours leading up to dmin before refiring after the sunset. Without a defined circulation, this thing is going to pulse.
Last edited by NXStumpy_Robothing on Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#62 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:24 am

Yeah, you see this convective burst has slowed the overall progress of the SE low level surge as well.

with distinct cloud line being pulled in on the SW side.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#63 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:35 am

It is off to the races...

up first- we have Developing New Circ Vs Airforce Recon.

following that glorious battle, we will have The Texas Coast Timing Vs Deeping Tropical Cyclone..

Who will win...

Stay tuned and find out.. :P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#64 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:48 am

I must say the mesoscale models particularly the other two versions of the HRRR have just crazy good with genesis.

They nailed the timing and placement of this llc forming this morning..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#65 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:07 am

Sure is quiet in here with a developing TC in the central GULF.. lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#66 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:07 am

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, central
and southern Florida, and western Cuba. Gradual development of
this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days. This
disturbance is expected to move over the central Gulf today, and
reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#67 Postby dantonlsu » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:13 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Sure is quiet in here with a developing TC in the central GULF.. lol


its 6 AM!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#68 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:14 am

dantonlsu wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Sure is quiet in here with a developing TC in the central GULF.. lol


its 6 AM!



all nighters.. come on now. this is the funnest part lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#69 Postby dantonlsu » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:22 am

IR loop looking impressive.

Imagine we get recon today.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#70 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:36 am

low level inflow continues to increase in all quads into that ball of convection north of the Yucatan Channel. Well on its way.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#71 Postby Do_For_Love » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:47 am

Yeah that's a pretty big burst of red on the IR there. Maybe we get two tropical storms today? Or is that too soon for this system?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#72 Postby catskillfire51 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:51 am

Do_For_Love wrote:Yeah that's a pretty big burst of red on the IR there. Maybe we get two tropical storms today? Or is that too soon for this system?


I think its too soon
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#73 Postby dantonlsu » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:52 am

catskillfire51 wrote:
Do_For_Love wrote:Yeah that's a pretty big burst of red on the IR there. Maybe we get two tropical storms today? Or is that too soon for this system?


I think its too soon


Agreed. But she is getting her act together
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#74 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:55 am

Possibly 8 named storms before Aug 1st....insane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#75 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:00 am

dantonlsu wrote:
catskillfire51 wrote:
Do_For_Love wrote:Yeah that's a pretty big burst of red on the IR there. Maybe we get two tropical storms today? Or is that too soon for this system?


I think its too soon


Agreed. But she is getting her act together


well we know there was strong winds out there already close to TS.. so honestly if the circ becomes defined enough for the NHC .. I think recon will find plenty of TS winds.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#76 Postby dantonlsu » Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:05 am

Wonder when we will hear if they're flying or not.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#77 Postby Portastorm » Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:27 am

Don't worry Aric ... the moment this thing starts getting its act together, I'm confident many of my fellow Texans will be all over this thread. LOL.

Aric Dunn wrote:
dantonlsu wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Sure is quiet in here with a developing TC in the central GULF.. lol


its 6 AM!



all nighters.. come on now. this is the funnest part lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#78 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:28 am

This storm reminds me of Harvey just by the models being all over the place. All it took was one good night for Harvey and he blew up quickly. I dont see any shear or anything that would stop this storm but i am not a meteorologist. It does look like its concentrating on convection near the center better than yesterday, but the models dont know what to do...Im watching carefully from the central texas coast
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#79 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:28 am

Portastorm wrote:Don't worry Aric ... the moment this thing starts getting its act together, I'm confident many of my fellow Texans will be all over this thread. LOL.

Aric Dunn wrote:
dantonlsu wrote:
its 6 AM!



all nighters.. come on now. this is the funnest part lol


What does that require to be interesting ?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#80 Postby dantonlsu » Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:36 am

Outflow looking good...
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