EPAC: DOUGLAS - Remnants

[Chris90]

Latest SSMIS pass looks identical to the older AMSR2 pass. I'm not sure if the core is obscured by convection or its lacking in the eastern quadrant.

But yeah if Recon flew into this now, they would find 50-60kts.

Speaking of recon, I wonder if there will be missions assigned.

The core looks pretty small, so I think it's being obscured by convection. I think an eyewall may be wrapping from the south quad up around the east quad, but I'm not sure.

I'm not sure about recon being assigned. I would doubt it for this system though. I'm also not sure if they'd even be allowed with the pandemic going on to fly to Hawaii. I know nothing about Hawaii's state government, or how things are operating for certain government agencies and military bases, but recon might need clearance from the state government, city government, and military approval before they could even fly to base there and start operations. They operate out of Honolulu when they're there, right?

It's probably a really good thing we don't have a 2018 situation right now and the recon requirements for that year.

[zhukm29]

Looking good tonight

[Yellow Evan]

I don't see how Recon would not be considered essential and given this does seem like a legitimate threat, I think they'll at least fly out even if we don't get any passes (which in that case the threat would have probably subsided).

[Kingarabian]

Latest SSMIS pass looks identical to the older AMSR2 pass. I'm not sure if the core is obscured by convection or its lacking in the eastern quadrant.

But yeah if Recon flew into this now, they would find 50-60kts.

Speaking of recon, I wonder if there will be missions assigned.

The core looks pretty small, so I think it's being obscured by convection. I think an eyewall may be wrapping from the south quad up around the east quad, but I'm not sure.

I'm not sure about recon being assigned. I would doubt it for this system though. I'm also not sure if they'd even be allowed with the pandemic going on to fly to Hawaii. I know nothing about Hawaii's state government, or how things are operating for certain government agencies and military bases, but recon might need clearance from the state government, city government, and military approval before they could even fly to base there and start operations. They operate out of Honolulu when they're there, right?

It's probably a really good thing we don't have a 2018 situation right now and the recon requirements for that year.

I think the local government here in Hawaii would welcome them with open arms if there are missions to be completed. I also think that Recon being Air Force supercedes whatever restrictions the local government has.

But yeah its definitely possible that the shear gets to Douglas just before it threatens Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

Looking good tonight

[url]https://i.ibb.co/T81wBt1/goes17-ir-08-E-202007202205.gif[url]

"35kt Tropical Storm" lol. It sure is looking healthy.

[Kingarabian]

GFS still cant initialize this system properly.

[EquusStorm]

That's got the look of something that wants to throw up a round of RI. I say please bring it on and make up for Cristina's failure while it's still in the middle of nowhere far from Hawaii lol

[Chris90]

The other thing with recon is that I have a feeling they're for sure going to be flying missions in to soon-to-be-91L, and I'm not sure what their operations are like during this pandemic, I feel like they've been flying less than would be typical in the ATL so far this year considering the amount of systems we've already had over there.

I don't know, we'll see. If Douglas reaches major status and model runs continue to consistently show a possible threat to Hawaii, I'll be more bullish on them scheduling recon.

I do know this: I'm glad I'm not in charge of operations and scheduling for the HH, especially this year.

I am getting increasingly bullish now with the continued trends with Douglas. I think he might be one of our only chances at a major in this basin this season.
I'm feeling a bit like that hologram message of Princess Leia: "Help me Douglas! You're my only hope!"

[Kingarabian]

00z HWRF

[Ubuntwo]

:uarrow:
00z HWRF initialized this at 990mb 60kts. And to be honest I dont think it's too far off...
https://i.imgur.com/ia43jQU.png

That's hour 18, init was 35kt

[Kingarabian]

Ah the start indicator was bugged out for me and instead of starting at 00hrs it was at 18hrs. Oops.

[Kingarabian]

ADT and SAB up to 3.0.

NHC up to 50kts.

[Kingarabian]

To sum up the 00z runs:
00z GFS continues to have a pretty blatant bad handle on this system.
00z CMC shifts south and a bit weaker, sending the system south of the Big Island.
00z HWRF has a stronger peak but weakens the system as it nears Hawaii.

00z ICON has a south Big Island landfall, 999mb, 45kt winds.
00z UKMET has a south Big ISland landfall or brush with 50kt winds.
00z Euro has a potential Cat.1 hurricane landfall on Maui.

Plenty of shifts to come but the Euro continues to have the worst case scenario.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

EP, 08E, 2020072106, , BEST, 00z, 13.1N, 122.2W, 50, 999, TS, 50,

According to best track, the system has increased in winds to 50 knots and minimum pressure is down to 999mb.

[Kingarabian]

00z HMON now peak this as a major hurricane:

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020

Conventional and scatterometer satellite data indicate that Douglas
has continued to strengthen, although cloud tops have recently begun
to warm. A well-defined CDO, along with a curved convective band in
the western semicircle, has developed, and an earlier SSMI/S
overpass suggested that a primitive eye feature may be developing.
The initial intensity of 50 kt is based on a 0506Z ASCAT-A pass that
showed a small area of winds to 45 kt located less than 15 nmi
northeast of the center. This intensity is supported by a consensus
T3.0/45-kt estimate from TAFB and SAB, and an upward-trending
UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate of T3.2/49 kt. The symmetrical 34-kt
wind radii are based on the aforementioned ASCAT data.

The initial motion estimate remains west-southwestward or 255/12 kt.
A ridge located between TD-07E to the north and Douglas to the south
is expected to keep the latter cyclone moving west-southwestward
into Tuesday morning. After that time, the global and regional
models are forecasting the ridge to weaken and retreat eastward
faster than originally expected, resulting in Douglas turning
west-northwestward in 36-48 h. As a result of this more poleward
motion, the new NHC official track forecast was shifted north of
the previous advisory track, but not as far north as the some of
the consensus models and the ECMWF model, which is the northernmost
track in the NHC model guidance suite.

Although Douglas should remain in a favorable low-shear-high-SST
environment for the next 72 h, which would typically favor rapid
intensification, the small cyclone will be battling occasional
intrusions of dry mid-level air. Such an intrusion appears to be
occurring now based on the recent cloud-top warming that has been
observed. Thus, only gradual strengthening, with brief periods of
arrested development, is expected for the next 3 days. On days 4 and
5, the cyclone will be moving over 25-deg-C SSTs and into an even
drier airmass, a negative combination that is expected to induce a
slow weakening trend. The new official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and lies between the consensus
models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 13.0N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 12.5N 124.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 12.2N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 12.3N 129.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 13.0N 132.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 14.2N 134.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 15.4N 137.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 17.0N 143.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 17.8N 148.9W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Chris90]

Douglas' loss of latitude will help keep him over warmer water for a bit longer, which is helpful, but the 26°C isotherm doesn't extend as far north as it would during a more favorable niño year, so when he starts to gain latitude again he'll need to make latitude gains slowly or he'll hit cooler waters too fast. I think if Douglas is going to get 85kts+, he's going to need to make that run in the next 48 hours. Hopefully dry air doesn't interfere too much.

Weren't the models showing the stronger solutions heading more north, with the weaker solutions staying a bit more southerly? Maybe the best thing for Hawaii would be for Douglas to get stronger in the short term and head north sooner, therefore hitting colder waters and dying off.

[Kingarabian]

Douglas' loss of latitude will help keep him over warmer water for a bit longer, which is helpful, but the 26°C isotherm doesn't extend as far north as it would during a more favorable niño year, so when he starts to gain latitude again he'll need to make latitude gains slowly or he'll hit cooler waters too fast. I think if Douglas is going to get 85kts+, he's going to need to make that run in the next 48 hours. Hopefully dry air doesn't interfere too much.

Weren't the models showing the stronger solutions heading more north, with the weaker solutions staying a bit more southerly? Maybe the best thing for Hawaii would be for Douglas to get stronger in the short term and head north sooner, therefore hitting colder waters and dying off.

Yeah that's mainly the Euro, EPS, and the GEFS.

SHIPS output shows nearly 26C SST the whole way. Seen many cases in the EPAC where major hurricanes can survive in sub 26C water easily.

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DOUGLAS EP082020 07/21/20 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 66 70 75 76 74 71 67 62 57 54 50 49 47 47
V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 66 70 75 76 74 71 67 62 57 54 50 49 47 47
V (KT) LGEM 50 58 65 71 75 80 78 73 64 55 48 43 39 34 31 28 25
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 5 5 8 5 7 5 7 7 8 12 9 16 21 27
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -1 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 3 1 0 3 0 -1 -2
SHEAR DIR 42 35 12 355 345 311 258 264 176 191 168 191 210 229 235 261 279
SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.6 27.5 25.9 26.2 25.7 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.8 27.3
700-500 MB RH 64 65 67 69 70 70 68 63 62 58 55 52 49 43 40 40 43

This SHIPS run is pretty concerning. It has marginal hostile conditions all the way up until Douglas reaches Hawaii. Dry air induced weakening in the EPAC at times is usually slow to occur, especially with low shear.

Lets hope Gonzo finds a stronger ridge or more troughiness north of Hawaii to keep it away from Hawaii.

[Chris90]

Yeah that's mainly the Euro, EPS, and the GEFS.

SHIPS output shows nearly 26C SST the whole way. Seen many cases in the EPAC where major hurricanes can survive in sub 26C water easily.

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DOUGLAS EP082020 07/21/20 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 66 70 75 76 74 71 67 62 57 54 50 49 47 47
V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 66 70 75 76 74 71 67 62 57 54 50 49 47 47
V (KT) LGEM 50 58 65 71 75 80 78 73 64 55 48 43 39 34 31 28 25
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 5 5 8 5 7 5 7 7 8 12 9 16 21 27
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -1 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 3 1 0 3 0 -1 -2
SHEAR DIR 42 35 12 355 345 311 258 264 176 191 168 191 210 229 235 261 279
SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.6 27.5 25.9 26.2 25.7 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.8 27.3
700-500 MB RH 64 65 67 69 70 70 68 63 62 58 55 52 49 43 40 40 43

This SHIPS run is pretty concerning. It has marginal hostile conditions all the way up until Douglas reaches Hawaii. Dry air induced weakening in the EPAC at times is usually slow to occur, especially with low shear.

Lets hope Gonzo finds a stronger ridge or more troughiness north of Hawaii to keep it away from Hawaii.

I think the key to Douglas surviving the cooler waters to the north will depend on his structure and how it evolves. A smaller core with more banding is most likely going to fall apart quickly once it gets to those cooler waters. If Douglas manages to build a larger, more stable eye with more annular features, he'll probably survive those cooler waters much more easily. I think that's why Cristina did as well as she did up there by 20°N; she might not have technically been annular, but she had a larger, more stable eye-like feature and lacked a lot of banding. I'll be watching the evolution of his structure on microwave imagery with interest.

[aspen]

Partial eyewall seen on a microwave pass from a few hours ago.