ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Pressure is likely down to 990 per the last VDM (994/40), plus there was a partial eyewall detected at 10,000 feet.

[craptacular]

For those waiting for next recon pass, you'll have to wait 5 hours for Miss Piggy to arrive. Current recon flight climbing and heading out.

[Evenstar]

Man, this might a bad one for Hampton Roads for real.

Not good. Not good at all. Norfolk floods like nobody's business. Lots of other place around Hampton Roads prone to flooding as well.

I was thinking there are probably some places that flood on a full moon high tide like tonight.

I'd imagine Old Dominion University and other places with multi-story parking garages are preparing to let the public get their cars to higher ground. ODU itself has areas on campus that will almost certainly flood if the stars (sadly) align.

[ncbird]

wow- got kind of quiet in here after the major threat to Florida has dissipated. Us poor North Carolinians are left to fend for ourselves-lol. Let's hope this system does not get its act together and strengthen anymore before plowing into our state. After the last few years we really don't need another hurricane!

There isn't much happening to affect anyone at the moment. If most people agree with the NHC and limited strengthening potential and combine that with most people understanding where it's going, there isn't a lot of back and forth. Hopefully y'all will be able to post some photos and videos tomorrow night if you see anything interesting.

There is actually quite a few of us from NC and SC on S2K. Not as many as Florida, so it does quiet down some, but we are here. Many may just be trying to get some rest in before action starts and things start to get ugly up here.

[rigbyrigz]

3 or 4 mets posted on Twitter in the last half hour that they believe it's now vertically stacked and therefore ripe for strengthening, what with the warm water and lower shear.

I'm actually turning on TWC and anxious to see what the 2AM adv says.

[seussianagenda]

I'm in a relatively protected part of Norfolk, but we ARE not ready for lunar high tides and this. No one even knows it's coming. Tomorrow is going to be a fucking madhouse

[seussianagenda]

Not good. Not good at all. Norfolk floods like nobody's business. Lots of other place around Hampton Roads prone to flooding as well.

I was thinking there are probably some places that flood on a full moon high tide like tonight.

I'd imagine Old Dominion University and other places with multi-story parking garages are preparing to let the public get their cars to higher ground. ODU itself has areas on campus that will almost certainly flood if the stars (sadly) align.

Yeah, I'm in Ballentine and I'm pretty ok here, but this plus that front colliding. Nasty. We haven't had a wind storm in a long time, so some weak trees are bound to fall. Plus, no one has even mentioned it network news wise until this evening. People are going to wake up with 24hrs to get ready.

[rigbyrigz]

The highly anticipated 2AM advisory is a sorta strange... The LEAD headline says " Expected to be a Hurricane when approaches Carolinas" ... but in the advisory 2AM discussion by Berg/Brown, says will be a "strong tropical storm" at landfall..

Talking about (not) being on the same page?

edit: Oh sorry was in a rush... says expected to be NEARLY a hurricane

[chaser1]

wow- got kind of quiet in here after the major threat to Florida has dissipated. Us poor North Carolinians are left to fend for ourselves-lol. Let's hope this system does not get its act together and strengthen anymore before plowing into our state. After the last few years we really don't need another hurricane!

There isn't much happening to affect anyone at the moment. If most people agree with the NHC and limited strengthening potential and combine that with most people understanding where it's going, there isn't a lot of back and forth. Hopefully y'all will be able to post some photos and videos tomorrow night if you see anything interesting.

There is actually quite a few of us from NC and SC on S2K. Not as many as Florida, so it does quiet down some, but we are here. Many may just be trying to get some rest in before action starts and things start to get ugly up here.

Rest is the key. If you think about it, you're totally jazzed well ahead of the approaching storm. Keeping tabs on the storms satellite presentation, changes to the storms core structure, eye-balling model updates, etc. By the time you have to act, make final preps, or simply bug out... you're drained from lack of sleep. Take the necessary steps and get the vital sleep you need. Whether you track or chase the storm, or simply hunker down and marvel at the brute force of Mother Nature just make sure that you are alert to take any precautions or avoid accidents. That's hard to do on just a few hours sleep each night. You all in Eastern South Carolina and Eastern N. Carolina are going to get a significantly greater "face-slap" from this storm then we in Florida did. Be safe.

[chaser1]

The highly anticipated 2AM advisory is a sorta strange... The LEAD headline says " Expected to be a Hurricane when approaches Carolinas" ... but in the advisory 2AM discussion by Berg/Brown, says will be a "strong tropical storm" at landfall..

Talking about (not) being on the same page?

edit: Oh sorry was in a rush... says expected to be NEARLY a hurricane

Forward motion appears to really be helping offset the southerly shear that has plagued this storm. Radar presentation appears far better then it had while east of South and Central Florida. It wouldn't require a significant drop in pressure to bump up to hurricane force. I expect some strengthening just as the storm approaches landfall.

[Syx6sic]

I was thinking there are probably some places that flood on a full moon high tide like tonight.

I'd imagine Old Dominion University and other places with multi-story parking garages are preparing to let the public get their cars to higher ground. ODU itself has areas on campus that will almost certainly flood if the stars (sadly) align.

Yeah, I'm in Ballentine and I'm pretty ok here, but this plus that front colliding. Nasty. We haven't had a wind storm in a long time, so some weak trees are bound to fall. Plus, no one has even mentioned it network news wise until this evening. People are going to wake up with 24hrs to get ready.

yea they are going to be shocked and with these last few days of strong pop up showers we have had to get the ground soft and wet is just going to make more trees fall over if we get strong winds. i know the abc stores are going to be packed tommorow with everyone trying to stock up now and i know ballentine very well i grew up in that area flooding there isnt as bad as it used to be but it does still flood. the area i wouldnt wanna be in is tidewater drive at the underpasses that always flood

[Craters]

Everybody in South Carolina, North Carolina, and points to the northeast --

FREE PIZZA!!!!

Okay. I lied about the pizza. But, now that I have your attention (maybe)...

This is NOT the end of the world, and you are NOT staring into the face of the coming Apocalypse. You should stop and take a couple of deep breaths. Relax, even if it's just long enough to read the rest of this. Then do what you want to. Excoriate me, send the hit squads, whatever. If you've been through a hurricane before -- regardless of its intensity -- you can ignore this post, because you know what to expect.

Isaias MIGHT be a hurricane by the time it gets to you; it might not. It doesn't make that much difference if it's a "hurricane" or a "tropical storm" unless, of course, it rapidly intensifies. (That doesn't look to be the case for Isaias, but assume that there's ALWAYS that possibility.) Category 1 hurricanes -- even strong tropical storms -- aren't particularly fun, unless you're ready for them. A strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane is a wonder of nature and is something to behold; I know, for what it's worth, because I've been through a gazillion of them here near Houston. They're strong windstorms with a lot of rain, typically. If you live near the coast, you probably know what to expect. If you don't know yet, either find out fast so you're not blindsided or just get out of Dodge for a while.

I've found that hanging onto every word posted to Storm2K when a tropical system is on the way to my address is one of THE MOST STRESSFUL things that you can do. Not because there's a lot of fantastic information here, but because there are some who (consciously or not) just want to make it sound even more Evil and Nasty than even The Weather Channel does. You do NOT need that kind of pressure, especially because your mind tries to make the worst of everything you read and it wants to panic. That is NOT the way to go now -- it's only counterproductive, and it basically just isn't realistic. If you feel that you're more stressed than you should be, I have one recommendation: as much as it pains me to say this, take a break from Storm2K and The Weather Channel for a while and concentrate on the NHC. The NHC lays out the facts without hype or sensationalism. They don't have sponsors or shareholders that demand a Big Audience like The Weather Channel does.

Again, if you're near the coast or in a flood-prone area, do what you have to do, because flooding sucks in more ways than one. If you aren't near the coast or in a flood-prone area, though, here are the main points: (1) it's going to be windy for a while, (2) it's going to rain -- maybe a lot, and (3) it's going to end, because -- unless some kind of particularly ironic miracle occurs -- Isaias is going to be moving in and out in a hurry compared to what could have been the case. This is NOT going to be an unstoppable blanket of rain the way that Harvey was for us in Texas, it is NOT going to be a humongous windstorm like Floyd, and it is NOT going to level entire cities that never will be heard from again.

I am NOT trying to make light of this. Hurricanes and tropical storms should be taken seriously -- ALWAYS. The fact that you're on Storm2K, however, almost certainly means that you are one of the smart ones who want to understand, know, and plan ahead. Just use your common sense, don't let hype psyche you (see what I did there??), and remember as much as you can about it so you can apply it next time.

Good luck and, if you can, enjoy the wonders of nature!

[GCANE]

That 4000 CAPE east of Miami is creating a strong infeed which appears to be contributing to increasing warm-core heating.
It is also tracking into a more moist environment.
The dry air ahead of it broke down yesterday afternoon when convection started to appear in it.
DMAX in a few hours.

[GCANE]

Looks like its about to turn to the NNE

[GCANE]

Increasing helicity over the whole western half of the system

[GCANE]

Looks to be a couple waterspouts maybe popping up.

[Vdogg]

Isaias now forecast to become a hurricane with shear forecast to abate. This discussion is almost the polar opposite of the one issued at 11.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0856.shtml

[rigbyrigz]

Strange name strange storm...
The 5AM NHC discussion "answered" my earlier question.
Seems this "eye" that we have watched forming is a "mid-level eye NE of the LLC".
SO the naked center still lives, onward, SW of this latest convective other eye.
Will it vertically stack I guess is one of the questions of the Dawning Day.
I'm gonna call this guy "I-Say-Huh" like I first wanted to.

(started tracking storms with Hurricane Donna in 1960 as an 8-year old living in OpaLocka. Oh what a nite. Many since, but I don't think I recall such Eye Level Lunacy. someone needs to do some "splainin".)

[tropicwatch]

NOAA and AF have planes up now.

[supercane4867]

Highest winds measured by the NOAA mission are displaced well to the NE of the center.