ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[Jr0d]

SST 30-31C. Outflow expanding. Circulation tightening. This bomb is armed and ready to explode.

The big question is will it run out of water before it can really explode.

Experiencing the squalls from it in Key West tells me this storm has some fierceness and may surprise Texas a little, however it may make landfall is a sparsely populated area.

[Aric Dunn]

Big tower firing off on the SE "eyewall" if that builds and wraps around... it is off to the races for sure..

[GCANE]

Outflow is becoming increasingly radial..

soon to be Hanna is about to start exploding convection..

That ULL over FL is mergerig with the TUTT to its east.
Sounds like the poleward outflow channel is kicking in.

I was thinking earlier this morning, afternoon popups over FL would take out the ULL.
Later I saw a thick cloud layer over FL and thought naw.
I was wrong - big convection over FL now.
There goes the ULL.
TUTT is going vent this big time.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It looks like it is still just slightly tilted, but is much improved from this morning.

[ColdMiser123]

I hope another plane heads out soon..

If i'm not mistaken it looks like one just took off

That AF304 mission is going to Gonzalo.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Here is refresher on another system that was supposed to landfall as a 45mph TS
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Humberto_(2007)

Tracking slowly west-northwestward, unfavorable wind shear initially inhibited tropical cyclone development.[4] By late on September 11, environmental conditions became more favorable,[5] and the following morning convection increased over the disturbance.[6] Tracking around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge, the system turned on a slow northwest drift and quickly organized. Radar imagery reported loose banding features, and buoy data indicated the presence of a surface circulation; based on the observations, the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Depression Nine, while located roughly 60 miles (100 km) southeast of Matagorda, Texas.[7]

Upon becoming a tropical cyclone, the tropical depression was forecast to strengthen slowly to reach peak winds of 45 mph (75 km/h).[7] Within three hours of forming, the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Humberto.[8] A small cyclone, the storm continued to organize quickly as it turned north-northeastward, while radar imagery suggested the formation of an eye by early on September 13.[9] Based on reports from Hurricane Hunters, Humberto was upgraded to a hurricane at 0515 UTC on September 13, while located about 15 miles (20 km) off the coast of Texas.[10] The hurricane made landfall a few miles to the east of High Island at around 0700 UTC.

[Aric Dunn]

This buoy looks like it is about to take a direct hit..

pressure is beginning to drop pretty quick.

pressure down a MB from when recon was there .. at the very least.

[jasons2k]

Much better pass from recon good well defined circ.

should see Hanna shortly.

That would be 11 days ahead of the 2005 record for 8th earliest storm? People keep pointing out that 2005 had stronger storms but (with the exception of Emily) the strong storms were Aug/Sept/Oct as usual. The absurd pace of cyclogenesis this year is just mind boggling. Every little wisp of cloud stands a chance!

I’m just catching up, but before Emily, don’t forget Dennis broke the record for earliest major in the Atlantic Basin. 2005 was something else.

Also after being away for a few hours and looking at the latest visible loop - this is definitely getting its act together today.

I’m standing by the comment I made yesterday that some folks will be quite surprised to what they will wake-up to tomorrow (Friday) morning.

[catskillfire51]

I hope another plane heads out soon..

If i'm not mistaken it looks like one just took off

That AF304 mission is going to Gonzalo.

I actually don't think so, I thought the same thing but it's going the wrong way.

[Ubuntwo]

If i'm not mistaken it looks like one just took off

That AF304 mission is going to Gonzalo.

I actually don't think so, I thought the same thing but it's going the wrong way.

Moving to Barbados for Gonzalo.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

When storms on the eastern half of this blob die down, it will be party time. I think the large storms in the eastern half are inhibiting growth at the moment. Still growing but at a much slower pace.

[GCANE]

Turn on UL WV.
Only one word, its starts with an F.

[supercane4867]

TD8 really got that WPAC appearance on satellite.

[Aric Dunn]

Turn on UL WV.
Only one word, its starts with an F.

https://i.imgur.com/Fk57hBL.png

yeah it is not looking like a set up to take lightly especially if it slows down and bends back w/wsw tomorrow..

it only needs 24 hours to bomb out..

[Nimbus]

Latest wind gusts were from the ENE so looks like 8 will be moving just south of there as it crosses 90°47'32" W.


https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42395

[tiger_deF]

TD8 really got that WPAC appearance on satellite.

Absolutely it looks like something you'd see on IR next to the Phillipines and southeast Asia, it probably has triple the convection of Gonzalo

[Aric Dunn]

despite the global models not doing much with it till after landfall ( thats just funny).

the NHC has to realize the potential for this to far exceed and outpreform all the models... the setup is looking spectacular
.

hurricane watches should go up.

[Tireman4]

Turn on UL WV.
Only one word, its starts with an F.

https://i.imgur.com/Fk57hBL.png

Friday? LOL

[tiger_deF]

Latest frame

[dantonlsu]

Wondering how much / if any of the convection to the right eventually wraps up & makes its way to Houston.