ATL: MARCO - Models

[Steve]

Yeah, I fully agree with that. I want to laugh at the Canadian like old times. But it always had some value even then. It tended to sense high and low pressure variances pretty well in advance even if it used to create storms out of everything and had tracks that sometimes rivaled the Clipper.

[Steve]

HWRF hits Grand Isle. It's not a strong area of low pressure, but the remaining energy looks like it could bring a couple of strong bands through New Orleans.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2200&fh=75

[Steve]

I think HMON might be out to lunch. Weak drift north to Gulf Shores.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hours 00-48:

[Kingarabian]

Euro trend:

[Kingarabian]

00z EPS:

[Ivanhater]

12z Icon insists this continues north through the Gulf

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[PTPatrick]

Posed this on Laura thread but Ivan, how good is icon? I only lightly tune in these days until something gets in the gulf. Never hear much about it but always has seemEd to be a less reliable model?

[Ivanhater]

Posed this on Laura thread but Ivan, how good is icon? I only lightly tune in these days until something gets in the gulf. Never hear much about it but always has seemEd to be a less reliable model?

It's pretty good at sniffing storms out. Track wise I am not sure yet this year. No model has been really stellar so far this year really.

[SoupBone]

The 12Z GFS so far at hour 30 is WAY north of previous runs for Marco.

At 36 hours, it starts moving N-NE.

[SoupBone]

12Z GFS now has Marco making landfall at the tip of Plaquemines Parish on Monday.

[Nederlander]

Whoa, weird run by GFS! Talk about inconsistent

[Ivanhater]

Yep, gfs is correcting toward icon. WAY further north and east than 06z

[Nederlander]

Something is seriously wrong with the GFS. 24 hours ago Marco was heading to Mexico.

[eastcoastFL]

42hrs

[SoupBone]

Yep, gfs is correcting toward icon. WAY further north and east than 06z

This is absolutely nuts. That's a day and a half from landfall, and some massive swings still in these tracks. It must be noted that the GFS has been pretty bad though this season.

[eastcoastFL]

Something is seriously wrong with the GFS. 24 hours ago Marco was heading to Mexico.

A lot has changed in the past 24 hours, the nhc wasn’t calling for a hurricane then either. Models are struggling mightily with this set up.

[HurricaneFrances04]

With the model verifications this year, next year's cone will look more like 2008 or 2003

[Ivanhater]

I think it is highly likely Marco will make landfall on the northern gulf coast with changes we are seeing this morning. What a mess of a forecast

[Nederlander]

Yep, gfs is correcting toward icon. WAY further north and east than 06z

This is absolutely nuts. That's a day and a half from landfall, and some massive swings still in these tracks. It must be noted tyhat the GFS has been pretty bad though this season.

Yeah and it makes the NHC’s job really tough. Looking at the steering, it’s essentially saying it will latch on to the weakness as the trough lifts out and escape before the ridge builds back in on top of Laura and pushes her west. So Marco could actually landfall east of Laura if this verifies.