ATL: MARCO - Models

[SoupBone]

The HWRF is nothing but consistent on bringing this to SELA.

[catskillfire51]

The HWRF is nothing but consistent on bringing this to SELA.

Unless my computer is crazy 14 leaves it's convection at Louisiana, bounces off the coast and makes a loop towards texas

[SoupBone]

The HWRF is nothing but consistent on bringing this to SELA.

Unless my computer is crazy 14 leaves it's convection at Louisiana, bounces off the coast and makes a loop towards texas

Nope, that's exactly what it looks like it's showing. What?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z has significantly backed off on this becoming a significant hurricane, likely due to influences from Laura.

[SoupBone]

So the HWRF still has what's left of TD14 meandering around the GoM south of Louisiana, while a nasty hurricane Laura heads to the Mobile Bay? I get it's a week out, but what?

[Astromanía]

12z EPS tracks + mean for TD14:
https://i.imgur.com/yEpZ8wM.png

Oh my... I may deal with another big rain event in my city

[SoupBone]

Anyone have what the 18Z Euro does with TD14?

[South Texas Storms]

Anyone have what the 18Z Euro does with TD14?

Weaker than the 12z run. It shows a TD drifting westward towards the middle TX coast on Tuesday when the run ends.

[catskillfire51]

Anyone have what the 18Z Euro does with TD14?

14 is that 1010 dot towards texas coast

[Hammy]

NAM coming in as first 00z model. Not doing a whole lot with it and might be having trouble resolving on the 32km model because if it's size--the 3km has been showing a stronger storm than 32km.

[CrazyC83]

So the HWRF still has what's left of TD14 meandering around the GoM south of Louisiana, while a nasty hurricane Laura heads to the Mobile Bay? I get it's a week out, but what?

Sounds like a classic Fujiwhara.

[Steve]

NAM bringing the weak 1009mb low off the NW Yucatan. It' s coming in from out of range, so not much to report. Maybe some of the energy gets sheared off toward the NE from the east side of the Gulf upper trough.

[Hammy]

Coming into view on the 3km, looks like it's nearing hurricane intensity by Sunday afternoon

[catskillfire51]

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So many times we see the global models underperform for intensity, i just dont trust it. Once those t-storms start firing off over that 30C water, it could be off to the races.

[catskillfire51]

I just don't see how Marco punches up to that High pressure system but Laura is getting pushed to the islands

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/At50hPa.png[url]

I just don't see how Marco punches up to that High pressure system but Laura is getting pushed to the islands

ICON is usually pretty bad on par with the NOGAPS. We just look at it because it proceeds the GFS and may give clues or hints on what the good models may show.

[catskillfire51]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/At50hPa.png[url]

I just don't see how Marco punches up to that High pressure system but Laura is getting pushed to the islands

ICON is usually pretty bad. We just look at it because it proceeds the GFS and may give clues or hints on what the good models may show.

Yeah I get that, I just think back to Harvey and if I remember right it was one of the first to show it bouncing off the high pressure system and coming back to the gulf. I guess a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes.

[Steve]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/At50hPa.png[url]

I just don't see how Marco punches up to that High pressure system but Laura is getting pushed to the islands

ICON is usually pretty bad. We just look at it because it proceeds the GFS and may give clues or hints on what the good models may show.

Yeah I get that, I just think back to Harvey and if I remember right it was one of the first to show it bouncing off the high pressure system and coming back to the gulf. I guess a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes.

It also found Marco and Laura many days before the GFS or European did. Again, don't use it so much for tracks, but it may turn out to be a somewhat valuable indicator or predictor of genesis.

[Hammy]

ICON is usually pretty bad. We just look at it because it proceeds the GFS and may give clues or hints on what the good models may show.

Yeah I get that, I just think back to Harvey and if I remember right it was one of the first to show it bouncing off the high pressure system and coming back to the gulf. I guess a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes.

It also found Marco and Laura many days before the GFS or European did. Again, don't use it so much for tracks, but it may turn out to be a somewhat valuable indicator or predictor of genesis.

Canadian's done similarly good this year and if Laura does end up becoming a hurricane, it'll show the model has managed to hone in on things that other models are missing--and one I'll certainly give far more weight to the rest of the season regardless of what others show--it's the only one that has consistently had Laura maintaining itself and never showed it dissipating in the Gulf.