ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[SFLcane]

00z ICON..

[Hurricaneman]

Yep, the Euro might just be leading the charge on this one, anyone from the Yucatán to Atlantic Canada need to keep close tabs on this

[DorkyMcDorkface]

GFS has definitely caved folks...
Also 18z EPS is starting to get into the "scary" range...

[HurricaneFrances04]

GFS joins the fun...

[AutoPenalti]

There’s the drop... GFS finally caved in.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

UHHHHHHHHHHH....

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.3N 45.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2020 60 13.3N 45.0W 1008 31
0000UTC 28.07.2020 72 13.6N 49.0W 1007 33
1200UTC 28.07.2020 84 14.1N 53.4W 1006 36
0000UTC 29.07.2020 96 15.4N 57.3W 1003 40
1200UTC 29.07.2020 108 16.7N 60.9W 1000 43
0000UTC 30.07.2020 120 18.2N 64.9W 994 50
1200UTC 30.07.2020 132 19.7N 68.0W 988 54
0000UTC 31.07.2020 144 21.4N 70.5W 972 74

[HurricaneFrances04]

Another track headed for the Dominican Republic, although GFS is fairly weak. Also noted the ICON isn't as strong as the 12Z.

[Hurricaneman]

The UKMET is 40 miles north of Hispaniola at the end of the run with a cat 2 pressure, if the UKMET went farther out it would be a major in the Bahamas similar to half of the Euro ensembles, a definite one to watch

[Evil Jeremy]

The UKMET is 40 miles north of Hispaniola at the end of the run with a cat 2 pressure, if the UKMET went farther out it would be a major in the Bahamas similar to half of the Euro ensembles, a definite one to watch

UKMET was a full step ahead of the rest of the models when it came to Irma & Dorian, in their approaches to Florida.

[sma10]

The UKMET is 40 miles north of Hispaniola at the end of the run with a cat 2 pressure, if the UKMET went farther out it would be a major in the Bahamas similar to half of the Euro ensembles, a definite one to watch

Ukmet and Icon in almost lock step agreement by the end of their respective 0z runs. Not entirely sure what the steering looks like at that point, though the UK does hint at a more NW and slower component at the end. Of course, it's impossible to know what comes after, nor is it really relevant this far out.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Canadian back on board

[sma10]

Canadian back on board

https://i.imgur.com/fTcVnwd.png

Yep - looks like it's all aboard. And might be one of those classic trackers

[stormlover2013]

Post image

[HurricaneFrances04]

CMC recurves east of the Bahamas. Not too surprising considering the time of year. If I had to guess, the UKMET would show the same thing past 144 hours.

[SFLcane]

CMC recurves east of the Bahamas. Not too surprising considering the time of year. If I had to guess, the UKMET would show the same thing past 144 hours.

CMC recurved cause it developed another system of the Carolinas which weakened the high. So many variables long time to watch this one.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The UKMET is 40 miles north of Hispaniola at the end of the run with a cat 2 pressure, if the UKMET went farther out it would be a major in the Bahamas similar to half of the Euro ensembles, a definite one to watch

Ukmet and Icon in almost lock step agreement by the end of their respective 0z runs. Not entirely sure what the steering looks like at that point, though the UK does hint at a more NW and slower component at the end. Of course, it's impossible to know what comes after, nor is it really relevant this far out.

With 2020 modeling, it honestly doesn't matter what the models say this far out past Puerto Rico.

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC recurves east of the Bahamas. Not too surprising considering the time of year. If I had to guess, the UKMET would show the same thing past 144 hours.

CMC recurved cause it developed another system of the Carolinas which weakened the high. So many variables long time to watch this one.

The system that is currently in the SE Bahamas and Eastern Cuba is what eventually develops on the CMC off of the Carolinas and pulls 92L north.


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[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like more GFS ensemble members are jumping on the bandwagon at 90 hours on the 00z.


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[AxaltaRacing24]

Looks like more GFS ensemble members are jumping on the bandwagon at 90 hours on the 00z.


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the gfs is slowly caving run to run.

[STRiZZY]

0z Euro is roughly the same 72hrs out