EPAC: DOUGLAS - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

Starting to develop an eyewall, it seems.
[url]https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020ep08/amsusr89/2020ep08_amsusr89_202007201710.gif[url]

It's maintaining a small compact core well. Some MW passes are due soon.

[Sciencerocks]

This storm is around 50 knots within my opinion. It is really complexing why the nhc kept it a depression last advisory.

[Kingarabian]

It'll be a hurricane by the time it's called Douglas.

[Yellow Evan]

Are we sure this is 2020? *Finds wood to knock on*

I think at this point major hurricane is in play, and I’d be calling for one days ago had it not been for the track record this year.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/OiA97aB.png

It'll be a hurricane by the time it's called Douglas.

A good looking, rapidly organizing EPac storm in 2020? No, it can’t be.

[Kingarabian]

AMSR2 pass:


To my eyes, the LLC is nicely tucked between the main area of convection. AKA this is strengthening.

[Kingarabian]

Environment in its path also looks surprisingly moist considering the cool-neutral in place.


18z Euro has a 974.7 pressure, lowest pressure so far.

[aspen]

AMSR2 pass:
https://i.imgur.com/6aRvKku.jpg

To my eyes, the LLC is nicely tucked between the main area of convection. AKA this is strengthening.

Comparing that to the latest IR imagery, yes, the center is within the central blob of convection. Might be approaching 55-60 kt now.

[Kingarabian]

AMSR2 pass:
https://i.imgur.com/6aRvKku.jpg

To my eyes, the LLC is nicely tucked between the main area of convection. AKA this is strengthening.

Comparing that to the latest IR imagery, yes, the center is within the central blob of convection. Might be approaching 55-60 kt now.

SAB came in with 2.5/3.0 so this is a good estimate.

TXPZ25 KNES 210025
TCSENP

A. 08E (NONAME)

B. 20/2330Z

C. 13.4N

D. 121.2W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED CDO THAT IS 1 DEGREE IN DIAMETER
RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 2.5 BASED ON A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[Yellow Evan]

Why is CI 3.0?

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 08, 2020072100, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1210W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHT, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

[Kingarabian]

Why is CI 3.0?

"Rapid Intensifying trend" maybe?

[aspen]

Are we seriously looking at something on the verge of RI? The season has been so incredibly pathetic so far that I’m having trouble believing we could see a rapidly intensifying hurricane anytime soon.

[Nancy Smar]

08E DOUGLAS 200721 0000 13.3N 121.0W EPAC 35 1006

[Chris90]

I think this is a scenario where they waited too long to pull the trigger and now they're going to be playing catch up. I know Dvorak is the default way to assess intensity when there's no recon, but I'd really love a new method that incorporates microwave imagery and actually gives it a hefty amount of weight in an algorithm. Looking at microwave imagery and trends I'd probably go something like 60kts/992mb, I think this is knocking on the door of hurricane if it's not already there. Recon has shown more than once that you don't need a complete eyewall for hurricane force winds. Let's all remember what a mess Jerry was in the ATL last year and recon went in and nearly found a major.

This has a smaller core so I think it's probably got the best shot so far this year at rapidly intensifying and reaching major.

[Kingarabian]

I think this is a scenario where they waited too long to pull the trigger and now they're going to be playing catch up. I know Dvorak is the default way to assess intensity when there's no recon, but I'd really love a new method that incorporates microwave imagery and actually gives it a hefty amount of weight in an algorithm. Looking at microwave imagery and trends I'd probably go something like 60kts/992mb, I think this is knocking on the door of hurricane if it's not already there. Recon has shown more than once that you don't need a complete eyewall for hurricane force winds. Let's all remember what a mess Jerry was in the ATL last year and recon went in and nearly found a major.

This has a smaller core so I think it's probably got the best shot so far this year at rapidly intensifying and reaching major.

Latest SSMIS pass looks identical to the older AMSR2 pass. I'm not sure if the core is obscured by convection or its lacking in the eastern quadrant.

But yeah if Recon flew into this now, they would find 50-60kts.

Speaking of recon, I wonder if there will be missions assigned.

[TheStormExpert]

I think this is a scenario where they waited too long to pull the trigger and now they're going to be playing catch up. I know Dvorak is the default way to assess intensity when there's no recon, but I'd really love a new method that incorporates microwave imagery and actually gives it a hefty amount of weight in an algorithm. Looking at microwave imagery and trends I'd probably go something like 60kts/992mb, I think this is knocking on the door of hurricane if it's not already there. Recon has shown more than once that you don't need a complete eyewall for hurricane force winds. Let's all remember what a mess Jerry was in the ATL last year and recon went in and nearly found a major.

This has a smaller core so I think it's probably got the best shot so far this year at rapidly intensifying and reaching major.

Latest SSMIS pass looks identical to the older AMSR2 pass. I'm not sure if the core is obscured by convection or its lacking in the eastern quadrant.

But yeah if Recon flew into this now, they would find 50-60kts.

Speaking of recon, I wonder if there will be missions assigned.

Recon doesn’t fly this far out, or do they?

[Kingarabian]

I think this is a scenario where they waited too long to pull the trigger and now they're going to be playing catch up. I know Dvorak is the default way to assess intensity when there's no recon, but I'd really love a new method that incorporates microwave imagery and actually gives it a hefty amount of weight in an algorithm. Looking at microwave imagery and trends I'd probably go something like 60kts/992mb, I think this is knocking on the door of hurricane if it's not already there. Recon has shown more than once that you don't need a complete eyewall for hurricane force winds. Let's all remember what a mess Jerry was in the ATL last year and recon went in and nearly found a major.

This has a smaller core so I think it's probably got the best shot so far this year at rapidly intensifying and reaching major.

Latest SSMIS pass looks identical to the older AMSR2 pass. I'm not sure if the core is obscured by convection or its lacking in the eastern quadrant.

But yeah if Recon flew into this now, they would find 50-60kts.

Speaking of recon, I wonder if there will be missions assigned.

Recon doesn’t fly this far out, or do they?

They do. Quite often during active EPAC seasons actually. It's usually when model ssupport a decent TC lasting long enough to threaten Hawaii.

[aspen]

Douglas might be starting a phase of RI...however, I would not be surprised to see it randomly fall apart by the time I wake up in 8 hours or so.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020

Satellite data indicate that the cyclone is strengthening. The
system now has a small but well organized central dense overcast
with curved bands on the west side of the circulation. All of the
satellite intensity estimates are of tropical storm strength, and
based on that data the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, making
the system Tropical Storm Douglas.

The tropical storm is moving west-southwestward at 9 kt. A
mid-level ridge situated to the north of Douglas off the northern
Baja California coast should cause the storm to gradually turn
westward during the next couple of days and then west-northwestward
beyond that time. The models are in good agreement on this
scenario, and only small changes were made to the previous
prediction.

Douglas is expected to be in quite favorable conditions of low
vertical wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and warm SSTs during
the next few days. Given these conducive environmental conditions
and the storm's improved and compact structure, steady or possibly
even rapid strengthening is possible during that time period.
After a few days, however, a combination of higher shear, slightly
cooler waters, and drier air should end the strengthening trend and
induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the higher
end of the guidance. This forecast shows a faster rate of
strengthening in the short term and more weakening at the end of
the period compared to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 13.1N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 12.5N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 12.0N 125.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 11.9N 128.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 12.3N 130.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 13.2N 133.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 14.2N 136.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 15.9N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 16.6N 147.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi