ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[crownweather]

12z Euro ensembles coming in even more aggressive. Several members now in the 950mb range targeting TX/LA.

Has there ever been a major hurricane in June? I know Alex ‘10 got really close, with a central pressure just under 950 mbar.

yes, Hurricane Audrey in 1957. Also, Hurricane Alma in 1966.

[kevin]

12z Euro ensembles coming in even more aggressive. Several members now in the 950mb range targeting TX/LA.

Has there ever been a major hurricane in June? I know Alex ‘10 got really close, with a central pressure just under 950 mbar.

Hurricane Audrey in 1957 is the strongest Atlantic June hurricane and peaked as a category 3 major hurricane (946 mbar) and also made landfall at that intensity. I posted the track of Audrey below. As mentioned in the post above me, Alma also reached category 3 status. There might be others, but those are the only 2 that I can find/think of.

[Cpv17]

12Z GFS ensemble mean shifts east:

https://i.postimg.cc/brF1Lrc3/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-28.png

That’s strange because the op had a Galveston landfall and the ensembles aren’t anywhere near there?

[stormlover2013]

Well heck, I guess everyone from Mexico to Florida is still in play. Confusing situation.

This isnt going to Florida

[wxman22]

12Z GFS ensemble mean shifts east:

https://i.postimg.cc/brF1Lrc3/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-28.png

That’s strange because the op had a Galveston landfall and the ensembles aren’t anywhere near there?

That tends to happen quite often especially during the early stages of potential tropical development, where the operational run tends to show a different solution from its ensembles. Sometimes the operational run is more accurate and sometimes the ensembles have a better grasp, time will tell...

[Kingarabian]

We're in range of the 6z/18z Euro runs now.

[wxman22]

12z EURO Ensembles

[Aric Dunn]

the euro ensembles and couple models are showing a wider swing to leftovers of amandda.. . touching the NW carrib before swinging back west. that ultimately slows down the later north motion allowing the upper environment to improve and showing more deepening.

[aspen]

12z EURO Ensembles

https://i.ibb.co/ZN55XCx/ecens-2020-05-31-12-Z-234-35-766-259-051-14-818-275-173-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

Seems like just about every member has it stall in the BOC for some time, before looping to the north and intensifying.

[Nimbus]

The 93L convection in the BOC is sheared a little NE from the circulating inflow visible in the low level clouds.
Can't say its a closed circulation yet but appears to be drifting NNW.
Amanda is over land so may not stay the dominant feature with much steering potential after tonight.
Buoy 42055 is seeing surface pressure start to drop but that is probably diurnal and the location far enough north that its only be useful to show inflow wind direction.

[cycloneye]

The EC ensembles.

[Steve]

There really is no consensus yet, models and there ensembles show anything from the upper Texas coast to southeast Louisiana that's a pretty broad area . It will be a few more days before we have a true consensus as center relocation is likely at this point which will have large impacts on landfall location.

No consensus yet except probably that we will get a storm. Here's where we are now:

ICON - Landfall roughly 168 hours/next Sunday morning in Cameron Parish, LA looks like TS
GFS - Landfall roughly Tuesday morning 6/9 around Chambers County, TX looks like TS
CMC - Landfall roughly at Terrebonne Bay (south of Houma) Saturday night looks like TS
UKMET - Gets to the Center of the Gulf at the end of that US Tropics run

So that's 4 on board with SCLA to SETX. For the mesoscales, NAM 12km is still spinning in the Bay of Campeche at its end in 84 hours.

Which of these tend to be more reliable overall in recent years?

European which wasn’t out then. But a week out, who knows. We haven’t had TVs setup in a while in early June.

[Kingarabian]

In relations to pre-93L, the 18z GFS has it reforming over the EPAC. It might be 94L or 95L that threatens the CONUS.

[SoupBone]

euro initialized the location of Amanda about 12 hours earlier from its current position. and then when it does make it over the BOC it dives it back into mexico and dies then a secondary circ develops to the NE.

if the circ stays over water like the rest of the models then we wont see this.

Won't see what?

[dixiebreeze]

Well heck, I guess everyone from Mexico to Florida is still in play. Confusing situation.

This isnt going to Florida

It will be too close for comfort.

[Jr0d]

I dont think 2 lows developing is out of the realm of possibilities, one in the BoC, the other in the NW Carribean.

[aspen]

In relations to pre-93L, the 18z GFS has it reforming over the EPAC. It might be 94L or 95L that threatens the CONUS.

The GFS has had it reforming over the EPac for days now, and refuses to budge.

[aspen]

18z ICON has a 974 mbar storm in the middle of the Gulf in 120 hours.

[chaser1]

I dont think 2 lows developing is out of the realm of possibilities, one in the BoC, the other in the NW Carribean.

Two low's? Sure, it could happen especially if one were a fairly tight "spin-up" as the GFS had been projecting for many consecutive model runs until finally dropping the idea several days ago. This seems more plausible if the overall gyre over Central America were to more or less remain in place while the remnants of Amanda and any other lobe of energy might detach and vie for inflow. If the remnants of Amanda were to eventually become organized enough and significantly deepen "in-place", then with enough time it would seem reasonable the gyre would become essentially vertically stacked (albeit a really broad envelope). I think that the models are more or less hinting toward this more coalescent type of evolution. "If" in fact that were to occur then I doubt we'd see other satellite type low's try and spin up. Also, for the moment I don't think there's much if any model support to suggest other development will occur in the Caribbean. The entire mess down there is still pretty fluid so nothing can be entirely counted out.

[Aric Dunn]

18z Euro now develops a circ in the BOC separate from the remnant of Amanda is 12 to 15 hours. with little to no signs of Amanda's circ being involved at all.