ATL: LAURA - Models

[dantonlsu]

00z GFS landfall plus trend
https://i.imgur.com/FH9fsPF.gif

No real change on the GFS

[TexasF6]

Anyone have anything to comment on Aric's Toy? That movement west? Any models showing this?

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=MIMICTPW2E.100&center=21.37124437061832,-64.75341796875001&zoom=5&width=1661&height=920&basemap=bw&labels=line&view=leaflet&timeproduct=MIMICTPW2E&timespan=-30t&animationspeed=100&animate=true

[Ken711]

00z GFS landfall plus trend
https://i.imgur.com/FH9fsPF.gif

Honing in a final solution it appears.

[Kingarabian]

Anyone have anything to comment on Aric's Toy? That movement west? Any models showing this?

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=MIMICTPW2E.100&center=21.37124437061832,-64.75341796875001&zoom=5&width=1661&height=920&basemap=bw&labels=line&view=leaflet&timeproduct=MIMICTPW2E&timespan=-30t&animationspeed=100&animate=true

While it does look like it's heading straight to Texas, the modeling is showing that it will hit a wall and the heading of WNW will switch to a firm NW.

[Steve]

ICON right at the border 1am Thursday. Got to be close and mirrors NAM timeframe. Also it’s very close to the GFS landfall and timing. SFWMD consensus is right up the border.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

I still want to see the European and HWRF tonight to make sure there isn’t some trickery to possibly look out for. But if they are in line with what’s out there, this should be a state border landfall give or take a couple miles.

[dantonlsu]

Anyone have anything to comment on Aric's Toy? That movement west? Any models showing this?

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=MIMICTPW2E.100&center=21.37124437061832,-64.75341796875001&zoom=5&width=1661&height=920&basemap=bw&labels=line&view=leaflet&timeproduct=MIMICTPW2E&timespan=-30t&animationspeed=100&animate=true

While it does look like it's heading straight to Texas, the modeling is showing that it will hit a wall and the heading of WNW will switch to a firm NW.

UKMET start running yet?

[Kingarabian]

Anyone have anything to comment on Aric's Toy? That movement west? Any models showing this?

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=MIMICTPW2E.100&center=21.37124437061832,-64.75341796875001&zoom=5&width=1661&height=920&basemap=bw&labels=line&view=leaflet&timeproduct=MIMICTPW2E&timespan=-30t&animationspeed=100&animate=true

While it does look like it's heading straight to Texas, the modeling is showing that it will hit a wall and the heading of WNW will switch to a firm NW.

UKMET start running yet?

Yeah it came in late.
00z UKMET:

HURRICANE LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.8N 88.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.08.2020 0 24.8N 88.6W 983 55
1200UTC 26.08.2020 12 26.1N 91.6W 975 58
0000UTC 27.08.2020 24 27.9N 93.5W 963 78
1200UTC 27.08.2020 36 30.3N 94.1W 959 55
0000UTC 28.08.2020 48 33.0N 93.8W 978 34
1200UTC 28.08.2020 60 35.3N 92.6W 988 36
0000UTC 29.08.2020 72 36.9N 89.8W 984 38
1200UTC 29.08.2020 84 37.2N 84.9W 982 32
0000UTC 30.08.2020 96 37.0N 78.0W 986 36
1200UTC 30.08.2020 108 38.3N 71.7W 982 46
0000UTC 31.08.2020 120 41.4N 64.7W 977 52
1200UTC 31.08.2020 132 46.7N 57.2W 968 58
0000UTC 01.09.2020 144 51.5N 51.6W 960 52

[sponger]

While it does look like it's heading straight to Texas, the modeling is showing that it will hit a wall and the heading of WNW will switch to a firm NW.

UKMET start running yet?

Yeah it came in late.
00z UKMET:

HURRICANE LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.8N 88.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.08.2020 0 24.8N 88.6W 983 55
1200UTC 26.08.2020 12 26.1N 91.6W 975 58
0000UTC 27.08.2020 24 27.9N 93.5W 963 78
1200UTC 27.08.2020 36 30.3N 94.1W 959 55
0000UTC 28.08.2020 48 33.0N 93.8W 978 34
1200UTC 28.08.2020 60 35.3N 92.6W 988 36
0000UTC 29.08.2020 72 36.9N 89.8W 984 38
1200UTC 29.08.2020 84 37.2N 84.9W 982 32
0000UTC 30.08.2020 96 37.0N 78.0W 986 36
1200UTC 30.08.2020 108 38.3N 71.7W 982 46
0000UTC 31.08.2020 120 41.4N 64.7W 977 52
1200UTC 31.08.2020 132 46.7N 57.2W 968 58
0000UTC 01.09.2020 144 51.5N 51.6W 960 52

So, Mcfadden or so, more East than prior. If we can get the Euro on board tonight, it will be the TX border. Amazing job by NHC again of it verifies.

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC is now the most westerly solution out of the guidance:


Landfall east of Galveston.

[shah83]

It seems like it makes as far west because it's slower and the western trough decays some...

[ColdMiser123]

0z HMON was pretty accurate with the pressure evolution through 3z, afterward it has rapid intensification in the short-term.

Looks to be its strongest run in a while.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

0z HMON was pretty accurate with the pressure evolution through 3z, afterward it has rapid intensification in the short-term.

Looks to be its strongest run in a while.

No kidding. By 12z it's already a major hurricane.

[TheStormExpert]

00z CMC is now the most westerly solution out of the guidance:
https://i.imgur.com/OAoKAql.png

Landfall east of Galveston.

Geez!! What’s with the 981 millibars?

[cheezyWXguy]

00z CMC is now the most westerly solution out of the guidance:
https://i.imgur.com/OAoKAql.png

Landfall east of Galveston.

Geez!! What’s with the 981 millibars?

Low resolution

[Steve]

0z HMON was pretty accurate with the pressure evolution through 3z, afterward it has rapid intensification in the short-term.

Looks to be its strongest run in a while.

It’s not giving up yet at 935 and dropping at 24 hours. Seems low for that fast. 4-5 hours left to go so maybe it can get to 932 or 931. I don’t think Laura will get that low.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro might come in something close to the CMC. The models have a history where they mimic paths.

[Kingarabian]

0z HMON was pretty accurate with the pressure evolution through 3z, afterward it has rapid intensification in the short-term.

Looks to be its strongest run in a while.

Plausible to me.

[Steve]

939 Cameron Parish tomorrow night. Pressure slightly rising but irrelevant.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=30

[ColdMiser123]

Mid-grade Cat 4 on the HMON, 125 KT/935 mb at landfall.

[Steve]

HWRF is next. Last run Cameron Parish upper 940’s.