ATL: LAURA - Models

[Ritzcraker]

I should had stuck to my guns this morning that the Euro is west biased when a storm starts making the poleward turn around the ridges and not jumped on the train of the Euro Ensembles with many people including pro-mets on Twitter. I should had stayed with the TVCN, is a much safer bet.
Euro ensembles also did horrible with Isaias ahead of when making the turn around the ridge.

Latest 0z Early models, zoomed in.

https://i.imgur.com/butD37U.gif

Yea I for one never bought into the Houston hysteria. Euro has a L bias. Everyone knows that...

[ATCcane]

I should had stuck to my guns this morning that the Euro is west biased when a storm starts making the poleward turn around the ridges and not jumped on the train of the Euro Ensembles with many people including pro-mets on Twitter. I should had stayed with the TVCN, is a much safer bet.
Euro ensembles also did horrible with Isaias ahead of when making the turn around the ridge.

Latest 0z Early models, zoomed in.

https://i.imgur.com/butD37U.gif

Yea I for one never bought into the Houston hysteria. Euro has a L bias. Everyone knows that...

Does the "new" GFS have a bias ?

[HurricaneEdouard]

No weakening. Not the ultimate storm, but it has a lot to work with. Here are a few other looks from the HWRF just before landfall (valid 7pm tomorrow):

IR
https://i.imgur.com/I0vQLcm.png

PWAT @ top of the chart
https://i.imgur.com/SNt38R2.png

RH% (pretty saturated)
https://i.imgur.com/XtdFiko.png

HWRF has been absolutely nailing the short-term intensity and structure of Laura (down to the appearance and exact features on its satellite simulations) since the storm was approaching the Caribbean. Now that we're only 30 hours out from this forecast, we should really take its prediction seriously in terms of intensity, size and structure.

[NDG]

I should had stuck to my guns this morning that the Euro is west biased when a storm starts making the poleward turn around the ridges and not jumped on the train of the Euro Ensembles with many people including pro-mets on Twitter. I should had stayed with the TVCN, is a much safer bet.
Euro ensembles also did horrible with Isaias ahead of when making the turn around the ridge.

Latest 0z Early models, zoomed in.

https://i.imgur.com/butD37U.gif

Yea I for one never bought into the Houston hysteria. Euro has a L bias. Everyone knows that...

Does the "new" GFS have a bias ?

Perhaps a slight right bias other than missing on development most of the times

[Steve]

No weakening. Not the ultimate storm, but it has a lot to work with. Here are a few other looks from the HWRF just before landfall (valid 7pm tomorrow):

IR
https://i.imgur.com/I0vQLcm.png

PWAT @ top of the chart
https://i.imgur.com/SNt38R2.png

RH% (pretty saturated)
https://i.imgur.com/XtdFiko.png

HWRF has been absolutely nailing the short-term intensity and structure of Laura (down to the appearance and exact features on its satellite simulations) since the storm was approaching the Caribbean. Now that we're only 30 hours out from this forecast, we should really take its prediction seriously in terms of intensity, size and structure.

Agreed. I’ll be all over the HRRR for that tomorrow to.

[Steve]

No weakening. Not the ultimate storm, but it has a lot to work with. Here are a few other looks from the HWRF just before landfall (valid 7pm tomorrow):

IR
https://i.imgur.com/I0vQLcm.png

PWAT @ top of the chart
https://i.imgur.com/SNt38R2.png

RH% (pretty saturated)
https://i.imgur.com/XtdFiko.png

Is that dry air slot to the west form the continental airmass? A lot of northward moving hurricanes seem to see their eyewall degrade on the west and south as they approach land.

Well could be. It's not much of one, and the lowest RH is like 50% which is dry but not desert like.

[Nederlander]

I know there will be flips and flops with models but don't we have a pretty good idea where this thing is going a little over 24 hours from now. A shift maybe 30 miles east or west is not going to make a be difference, Correct me if I am wrong.

Will make a huge difference for unprotected areas of Jefferson and Orange counties

[boulderrr]

I know there will be flips and flops with models but don't we have a pretty good idea where this thing is going a little over 24 hours from now. A shift maybe 30 miles east or west is not going to make a be difference, Correct me if I am wrong.

I disagree. I literally wrote my Master's thesis on analyses I conducted using CAT models to assess the impact of a 30 mile track difference on economic damages. It can make a world of difference.

This was 11 years ago and I know I could do better now... but if you have trouble falling asleep, this will do the trick.

THE INFLUENCE OF LANDFALL VARIATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE LOSSES IN THE UNITED STATES AS SIMULATED BY HAZUS
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3915/7ef4f8211f634bf12466a50c4fcc7d7d60f5.pdf?_ga=2.205455632.162843021.1598410106-658770868.1598410106

Edit: I also did a damage survey after Hurricane Michael and was amazed how different Panama City Beach looked vs. Panama City. PCB is on the water and only a few miles away, but they didn't experience the core like PC did. The gradient was awe inspiring. You could barely tell a storm had even happened in PCB, but PC was a disaster zone.

[Steve]

NAM 12km TX/LA border 1am tomorrow night
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=30

NAM 3km pretty close to the same spot but 924 which is just a gauge for it saying it expects rapid deepening tonight and tomorrow.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=30

NAM 32km a hair east of the border
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=30

ICON running now

Early Cycle Tracks - Just inside the LA side of the border
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime ... _early.png

Experimental (COAMPS) Late Cycle Track almost mirrors official now
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime ... ream15.png

Early Cycle Intensity Guidance for 00z peaks it at Cat 3
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime ... _early.png

[Ken711]

[DocB]

I know there will be flips and flops with models but don't we have a pretty good idea where this thing is going a little over 24 hours from now. A shift maybe 30 miles east or west is not going to make a be difference, Correct me if I am wrong.

I disagree. I literally wrote my Master's thesis on analyses I conducted using CAT models to assess the impact of a 30 mile track difference on economic damages. It can make a world of difference.

This was 11 years ago and I know I could do better now... but if you have trouble falling asleep, this will do the trick.

THE INFLUENCE OF LANDFALL VARIATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE LOSSES IN THE UNITED STATES AS SIMULATED BY HAZUS
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3915/7ef4f8211f634bf12466a50c4fcc7d7d60f5.pdf?_ga=2.205455632.162843021.1598410106-658770868.1598410106

Edit: I also did a damage survey after Hurricane Michael and was amazed how different Panama City Beach looked vs. Panama City. PCB is on the water and only a few miles away, but they didn't experience the core like PC did. The gradient was awe inspiring.

You lost me at B.A. University of Tennessee”.

J/k. Will read this through. First five pages were very well written and informative


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[boulderrr]

I know there will be flips and flops with models but don't we have a pretty good idea where this thing is going a little over 24 hours from now. A shift maybe 30 miles east or west is not going to make a be difference, Correct me if I am wrong.

I disagree. I literally wrote my Master's thesis on analyses I conducted using CAT models to assess the impact of a 30 mile track difference on economic damages. It can make a world of difference.

This was 11 years ago and I know I could do better now... but if you have trouble falling asleep, this will do the trick.

THE INFLUENCE OF LANDFALL VARIATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE LOSSES IN THE UNITED STATES AS SIMULATED BY HAZUS
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3915/7ef4f8211f634bf12466a50c4fcc7d7d60f5.pdf?_ga=2.205455632.162843021.1598410106-658770868.1598410106

Edit: I also did a damage survey after Hurricane Michael and was amazed how different Panama City Beach looked vs. Panama City. PCB is on the water and only a few miles away, but they didn't experience the core like PC did. The gradient was awe inspiring.

You lost me at B.A. University of Tennessee”.

J/k. Will read this through. First five pages were very well written and informative


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

LOL. Made my way to Colorado for grad school (and ever since) as quickly as possible!

[DocB]

I disagree. I literally wrote my Master's thesis on analyses I conducted using CAT models to assess the impact of a 30 mile track difference on economic damages. It can make a world of difference.

This was 11 years ago and I know I could do better now... but if you have trouble falling asleep, this will do the trick.

THE INFLUENCE OF LANDFALL VARIATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE LOSSES IN THE UNITED STATES AS SIMULATED BY HAZUS
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3915/7ef4f8211f634bf12466a50c4fcc7d7d60f5.pdf?_ga=2.205455632.162843021.1598410106-658770868.1598410106

Edit: I also did a damage survey after Hurricane Michael and was amazed how different Panama City Beach looked vs. Panama City. PCB is on the water and only a few miles away, but they didn't experience the core like PC did. The gradient was awe inspiring.

You lost me at B.A. University of Tennessee”.

J/k. Will read this through. First five pages were very well written and informative


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

LOL. Made my way to Colorado for grad school (and ever since) as quickly as possible!

Just had to give you grief. Vandy alumn here. Remember the good old days when we were an easy week during football season?

Okay, back to Laura.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[PTPatrick]

I disagree. I literally wrote my Master's thesis on analyses I conducted using CAT models to assess the impact of a 30 mile track difference on economic damages. It can make a world of difference.

This was 11 years ago and I know I could do better now... but if you have trouble falling asleep, this will do the trick.

THE INFLUENCE OF LANDFALL VARIATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE LOSSES IN THE UNITED STATES AS SIMULATED BY HAZUS
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3915/7ef4f8211f634bf12466a50c4fcc7d7d60f5.pdf?_ga=2.205455632.162843021.1598410106-658770868.1598410106

Edit: I also did a damage survey after Hurricane Michael and was amazed how different Panama City Beach looked vs. Panama City. PCB is on the water and only a few miles away, but they didn't experience the core like PC did. The gradient was awe inspiring.

You lost me at B.A. University of Tennessee”.

J/k. Will read this through. First five pages were very well written and informative


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

LOL. Made my way to Colorado for grad school (and ever since) as quickly as possible!

Great work...I will have to read this whole thing some time. As a swamp rat who moved to Colorado to get away from hurricanes after Katrina, I have always shrugged a bit when you hear it doesnt matter where exactly the center goes. from a public messaging and prepping point I think its important everybody in a given cone prep as if they were going to get the eye wall. But the reality is its often a very narrow band of major damage from wind. Now water on the other hand...

[Nimbus]

UKMET model still has a mid 970's hurricane headed for landfall near Galveston Bay so I guess its still worth wobble watching.

[Kingarabian]

UKMET model still has a mid 970's hurricane headed for landfall near Galveston Bay so I guess its still worth wobble watching.

12z right?

I'm suspecting the 00z to shift east as well.

[dantonlsu]

Yea when does the new UKMET run?

[Kingarabian]

Yea when does the new UKMET run?

37 minutes

[dantonlsu]

Yea when does the new UKMET run?

37 minutes

Will be an interesting run

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS landfall plus trend