ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

How many years has there been an Atlantic "A" storm before the EPAC?

Seems to be becoming more and more common.

[Jr0d]

A little surprised no upgrade at 2pm. I am now thinking they will go with a depression at 5pm now instead of going straight to a storm.

I have noticed that the models underperform on early season storms. Its tough to go against the statistical models however the Euro still keeps it very close to the Outer Banks.

I think storm watches will probably be issued for the OBX at 5pm.

[wxman57]

A little surprised no upgrade at 2pm. I am now thinking they will go with a depression at 5pm now instead of going straight to a storm.

I have noticed that the models underperform on early season storms. Its tough to go against the statistical models however the Euro still keeps it very close to the Outer Banks.

I think storm watches will probably be issued for the OBX at 5pm.

Outer Banks impacts starting in just over 36 hrs. Just about time for warnings vs. a watch. Grazed by low-end TS winds, most likely.

[chaser1]

I agree with your thoughts regarding 90L not being upgraded to a T.D. at 2:00 pm. I honestly think that has to do more with a variety of inter-agency factors and decisions. One thing I find particularly impressive about 90L is it's overall size of it's broad circulation. Given it's non-tropical origin, step back and look at a broader scale satellite loop. It's broad wind field really does have a nice size sphere of influence.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track still as Invest.

90L INVEST 200516 1800 28.0N 78.8W ATL -30 1008

Location: 28.0°N 78.8°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: 40 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM

[TheStormExpert]

Basically this years Arthur is looking like a weaker repeat of 2014’s Hurricane Arthur for the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Maybe if we’re lucky the rest of the season will turn out the same as 2014 or close to it, we’ll below average and pretty much uneventful.

[CyclonicFury]

Basically this years Arthur is looking like a weaker repeat of 2014’s Hurricane Arthur for the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Maybe if we’re lucky the rest of the season will turn out the same as 2014 or close to it, we’ll below average and pretty much uneventful.

Highly doubtful we only have 8 named storms with the setup we have now.

[Yellow Evan]

Basically this years Arthur is looking like a weaker repeat of 2014’s Hurricane Arthur for the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Maybe if we’re lucky the rest of the season will turn out the same as 2014 or close to it, we’ll below average and pretty much uneventful.

They're almost not comparable given as of now I think this stays offshore unless the ECMWF and UKMET shift westward as well. And as you say this will be much weaker than the last version and earlier in the calendar year.

[chaser1]

.... and we've reached 90L Wobble-Watch Half-time boy's and girls! Go grab some munchies and return back in time for the next recon

Sidenote thought; with Coronavirus possibly impacting the number of pilot/co-pilot and other recon crew missions, wouldn't this seem an opportune time to fly drone missions?

[TheStormExpert]

Basically this years Arthur is looking like a weaker repeat of 2014’s Hurricane Arthur for the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Maybe if we’re lucky the rest of the season will turn out the same as 2014 or close to it, we’ll below average and pretty much uneventful.

Highly doubtful we only have 8 named storms with the setup we have now.

I’m just being hopeful!

[TheStormExpert]

Basically this years Arthur is looking like a weaker repeat of 2014’s Hurricane Arthur for the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Maybe if we’re lucky the rest of the season will turn out the same as 2014 or close to it, we’ll below average and pretty much uneventful.

They're almost not comparable given as of now I think this stays offshore unless the ECMWF and UKMET shift westward as well. And as you say this will be much weaker than the last version and earlier in the calendar year.

It’s funny because doesn’t the GFS usually overdo troughs and the Euro overdo ridges? This seems to be the contrary in this case.

[HurricaneBelle]

Basically this years Arthur is looking like a weaker repeat of 2014’s Hurricane Arthur for the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Maybe if we’re lucky the rest of the season will turn out the same as 2014 or close to it, we’ll below average and pretty much uneventful.

This is shaping up to be the Russell Brand version of Arthur vs the Dudley Moore version.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 01, 2020051618, , BEST, 0, 280N, 788W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001, TRANSITIONED, alA02020 to al012020,

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Tropical Depression 1 is here.

[chaser1]

Tropical Depression 1 is here.

Thanks Nancy...... Gotta say, I get a kick out of us collectively getting faster "up to date" info here on S2K then others would if simply waiting for NHC site updates. Then again, minutes or an hour or two hardly matter to most folks as it might to those here who "geek out" on all things tropical (me included LOL).

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1261754237752492034

[CyclonicFury]

This is the first Atlantic season to start with a tropical formation rather than subtropical since 2014.

[cycloneye]

Is the sixth year in a row with a development before June 1.

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

NHC copied both my track AND my intensity (and the timing of ET transition). Plagiarism!