ATL: DELTA - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

10a NHC update

[Steve]

10a NHC update

[url]https://i.ibb.co/v1hPp4g/115859-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png [/url]

Track was moved west (haven't read the discussion yet). SE TX to Escambia Bay are the edges of the cone. System looks to be right on top of Baton Rouge on Saturday morning.

Here's the NAM 12km landfall near where the NHC has it.

[Wx_Warrior]

Discussion: The track guidance is tightly clustered through 48 hours, but there is still a fair amount of spread thereafter regarding the timing and details of the northward turn. The ECMWF
and its ensemble mean are well west of the bulk of the remainder of the guidance. The NHC track lies near the TVCA multi-model consensus which is close to a blend of the GFS, HWRF, UKMET ensemble mean.

10a NHC update

[url]https://i.ibb.co/v1hPp4g/115859-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png [/url]

Track was moved west (haven't read the discussion yet). SE TX to Escambia Bay are the edges of the cone. System looks to be right on top of Baton Rouge on Saturday morning.

Here's the NAM 12km landfall near where the NHC has it.
https://i.imgur.com/kGE9fIj.png

[Steve]

ICON, which has been a western outlier takes it at least to 93.7W which is way farther than I thought it would go (almost due south of LA/TX border) through 69 hours. It landfalls in Vermilion Parish, LA Friday evening around 979mb (similar pressure to the NAM 12km, landfall west of NAM).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=84

[stormlover2013]

RGEM is where euro is at

[SoupBone]

ICON, which has been a western outlier takes it at least to 93.7W which is way farther than I thought it would go (almost due south of LA/TX border) through 69 hours. It landfalls in Vermilion Parish, LA Friday evening around 979mb (similar pressure to the NAM 12km, landfall west of NAM).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=84

I know the ICON isn't reliable, and I'm not saying this is a Houston system, but what are some of the models seeing that push it that far west? Is the ridge stouter?

[Steve]

ICON, which has been a western outlier takes it at least to 93.7W which is way farther than I thought it would go (almost due south of LA/TX border) through 69 hours. It landfalls in Vermilion Parish, LA Friday evening around 979mb (similar pressure to the NAM 12km, landfall west of NAM).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=84

I know the ICON isn't reliable, and I'm not saying this is a Houston system, but what are some of the models seeing that push it that far west? Is the ridge stouter?

The ridge isn't static. It's pushing it from the east. I think it has to do with what happens after it crosses the N Yucatan and interacts with the remnants of Gamma. People discounted it, but it's a reasonable feature with a circulation. It actually brought the clouds in here last night and today for the first time in a while.

[SoupBone]

GFS with a west shift, more into SWLA to Central Louisiana at 78 hours. Next frame should show the NE hook.

[SoupBone]

GFS at 84 hours hooks NE into the central Louisiana coastline, a few miles west of the previous run.

[lsuhurricane]

GFS with a west shift, more into SWLA to Central Louisiana at 78 hours. Next frame should show the NE hook.

Difference btw this run and last is speed. Slightly faster allows further west movement before trough interaction.

[Steve]

Soup,

Run the 500mb ICON and it will show you what happens. Push is from the E and NE from the ridge (darker red to the east of Delta). See how it reaches over the top (north) of it and keeps it moving toward the TX Coast pretty far in the Gulf before coming up in SWLA. I think it's probably too far left, but it's the Atlantic High Pressure primarily influencing the movement with the assist from Gamma.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=84

[SoupBone]

Soup,

Run the 500mb ICON and it will show you what happens. Push is from the E and NE from the ridge (darker red to the east of Delta). See how it reaches over the top (north) of it and keeps it moving toward the TX Coast pretty far in the Gulf before coming up in SWLA. I think it's probably too far left, but it's the Atlantic High Pressure primarily influencing the movement with the assist from Gamma.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=84

Ahhh i see it, thanks. Almost like it is pulsing then degrades east allowing that hook to happen.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

I may be mistaken, but in looking at some of the models none are initiating their runs with the pressure close to where Delta is now, or where it was a few hours ago, and some of the runs never get close. What am I missing?

[Steve]

I may be mistaken, but in looking at some of the models none are initiating their runs with the pressure close to where Delta is now, or where it was a few hours ago, and some of the runs never get close. What am I missing?

They don't handle pressure properly most of the time. We aren't that advanced yet though some models do better than others in given situations.

[stormlover2013]

from what its worth bastardi thinks euro is on to something

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Soup,

Run the 500mb ICON and it will show you what happens. Push is from the E and NE from the ridge (darker red to the east of Delta). See how it reaches over the top (north) of it and keeps it moving toward the TX Coast pretty far in the Gulf before coming up in SWLA. I think it's probably too far left, but it's the Atlantic High Pressure primarily influencing the movement with the assist from Gamma.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=84

Ahhh i see it, thanks. Almost like it is pulsing then degrades east allowing that hook to happen.

This relates to my earlier question . . . When on the tip of the Mexico in 24 hrs this pressure map shows Delta at 982 mb. Way off there, and in 18 hours at 987. That is no where close. Seems with Delta strengthening as much as he has this would throw a kink into things, and make the forecast tougher.

[Steve]

GFS Morgan City on Friday evening at 967mb. Very believable.



NAM - Morgan City
GFS - Morgan City
ICON - Vermilion Parish/Abbeville

Many more to come at 12z. Thoughts are if the NHC is right, HMON and HWRF will have to slide about 50 miles west over toward St. Mary Parish. EC will have to shift East. 2013 said RGEM (CMC) is where NHC is (Morgan City-ish) though I haven't seen the CMC output yet.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm very interested in the JMA 12z run today, it has been good with 500mb forecasts and the run yesterday was east of NO with landfall on MS coast. I don't wish it back further to the west on anybody but just don't want this over this direction at all.

[Steve]

Soup,

Run the 500mb ICON and it will show you what happens. Push is from the E and NE from the ridge (darker red to the east of Delta). See how it reaches over the top (north) of it and keeps it moving toward the TX Coast pretty far in the Gulf before coming up in SWLA. I think it's probably too far left, but it's the Atlantic High Pressure primarily influencing the movement with the assist from Gamma.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=84

Ahhh i see it, thanks. Almost like it is pulsing then degrades east allowing that hook to happen.

This relates to my earlier question . . . When on the tip of the Mexico in 24 hrs this pressure map shows Delta at 982 mb. Way off there, and in 18 hours at 987. That is no where close. Seems with Delta strengthening as much as he has this would throw a kink into things, and make the forecast tougher.

Thread has gotten too long for me to search back, but one of the pros yesterday explained some of the pressure errors in modeling. If you have time today, you can dig back a few pages (luckily this one is only like 15)

[stormlover2013]

GFS Morgan City on Friday evening at 967mb. Very believable.

https://i.imgur.com/56B0PcB.png

NAM - Morgan City
GFS - Morgan City
ICON - Vermilion Parish/Abbeville

Many more to come at 12z. Thoughts are if the NHC is right, HMON and HWRF will have to slide about 50 miles west over toward St. Mary Parish. EC will have to shift East. 2013 said RGEM (CMC) is where NHC is (Morgan City-ish) though I haven't seen the CMC output yet.

and all know that the models been so bad this year that this won't be right lol wild that they are so bad this year